XRP Weekly Forecast: Week of March 23, 2026

What should I watch for XRP into the monthly close?

Into the monthly close, watch whether XRP holds major support zones and can reclaim key resistance with follow-through. Weekly and monthly closes near important levels often determine whether the base scenario holds or shifts heading into the next month.

The week of March 23, 2026 marks the final full trading week before the March monthly close, adding extra weight to every level test. Following the March 17–18 FOMC decision, markets have had time to digest the Fed’s rate-path guidance, and post-FOMC positioning is now flowing into altcoins. XRP enters this week in a continued downtrend regime with price compressing between key support near the $1.00–$1.20 zone and immediate resistance around $1.40–$1.50. The base-case range for this week is $1.10–$1.45. A decisive weekly close above or below these boundaries heading into March 31 will set the tone for April scenario planning.

Weekly Scenario Matrix

Scenario	Range	Triggers	Confirmation	Month-End Implication
Base	$1.10–$1.45	Post-FOMC calm; range-bound BTC; no XRP-specific catalyst	Daily closes within range; declining volatility into Friday	Monthly close near mid-range; neutral carry into April
Bull	$1.45–$1.70	BTC reclaims $75K+; XRP ETF inflow spike; risk-on macro shift	Daily close above $1.45 with rising volume two consecutive days	Monthly close above $1.45 reclaims key structure; April opens bullish
Bear	$0.90–$1.10	BTC loses $67K; macro risk-off escalation; whale distribution accelerates	Daily close below $1.10 on elevated volume	Monthly close below $1.10 triggers extended downtrend into April

Key Levels Snapshot

Zone	Level	Evidence	Signal	Month-End Relevance
Major Support	$1.00–$1.10	Multi-year ascending trendline; historical ABC wave target; psychological round number	Failure: daily close below $1.00 on volume > $8B	Monthly close here = bear regime confirmed for April
Secondary Support	$1.20–$1.29	Fibonacci 78.6% retracement; recent swing low cluster; analyst consensus bottom zone	Bounce: reclaim $1.29 with RSI divergence	Monthly close above $1.20 preserves base scenario
Immediate Resistance	$1.40–$1.50	Broken Fibonacci 78.6% now acting as resistance; 50-day MA zone; weekly downtrend channel mid-band	Reclaim: two daily closes above $1.50 with volume	Monthly close above $1.50 = constructive setup for April
Key Resistance	$1.65–$1.71	Prior support turned resistance; February consolidation range floor; volume profile high node	Reclaim: daily close above $1.71 on rising volume	Monthly close above $1.65 shifts regime to neutral/bullish
Invalidation	Below $0.95	Break of multi-year trendline; no historical support until $0.78 October 2025 low	Switch to bear scenario; re-evaluate entire Q2 outlook	Monthly close below $0.95 = structural breakdown

Catalyst Radar

• Macro: Post-FOMC positioning (March 17–18 meeting concluded); Q1 GDP estimates; PCE inflation data (March 28); quarter-end rebalancing flows.
• Crypto liquidity: BTC dominance trend; XRP ETF weekly inflow/outflow data; aggregate open interest and funding rates; liquidation cluster proximity.
• XRP-specific: RLUSD Japan launch progress via SBI; Ripple bank charter update; XRPL Foundation governance transition; any BlackRock ETF filing developments.

Quick Navigation

• XRP Weekly Forecast Hub
• XRP March 2026 Forecast
• Previous Week: Mar 16, 2026
• Next Week: Mar 30, 2026
• XRP Next Month Prediction
• XRP April 2026 Forecast

What Changed Since Last Week (Week of Mar 16 → Mar 23)

Structure and Volatility Changes

The previous week’s forecast was dominated by the March 17–18 FOMC meeting. The Fed held rates steady at 3.50–3.75%, maintaining its data-dependent stance while noting that “uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated.” Two dissenting members pushed for a 25-basis-point cut, signaling internal pressure for easing. The immediate market reaction was muted, but the lack of a hawkish surprise gave risk assets—including crypto—a modest lift into the second half of the week.

XRP’s weekly structure shows the downtrend remains intact. Price printed lower highs on the daily chart, and the 50-day moving average continues to slope downward. However, realized volatility compressed compared to the prior two weeks, suggesting the market is entering a consolidation phase rather than accelerating lower. The descending channel on the two-day chart remains the dominant structure, with the lower band converging near the $1.00–$1.10 zone during this week.

Liquidity and Leverage Changes

Open interest across major XRP perpetual venues declined modestly during the week of March 16, consistent with position trimming ahead of the FOMC announcement. Funding rates remain slightly negative, indicating a mild short bias in the derivatives market. Liquidation clusters are building above $1.50 (short liquidations) and below $1.05 (long liquidations), creating a potential squeeze zone in either direction.

On-chain data shows continued mixed signals from whale activity. Wallets holding 1–10 million XRP have extended their distribution trend since September 2025, while smaller whale wallets (100K–1M XRP) have been net accumulators. This tug-of-war between large-holder distribution and mid-tier accumulation has kept spot selling pressure manageable but has not generated enough buying momentum to reverse the weekly downtrend.

Week-over-Week Delta Summary

Metric	Week of Mar 16	Week of Mar 23 (Est.)
Weekly Range	$1.15–$1.42	$1.10–$1.45 (projected)
Weekly RSI (14)	~28 (oversold)	~26–30 (still oversold)
Regime Label	Downtrend / FOMC wait	Downtrend / month-end positioning
Dominant Catalyst	FOMC rate decision	Month-end flows; PCE data (Mar 28)
OI Trend	Declining (pre-FOMC trim)	Flat to slightly rising (re-positioning)
Whale Behavior	Mixed: large sellers, mid-tier buyers	Monitoring for month-end rebalance

XRP Weekly Range Forecast (Week of Mar 23, 2026)

Base Case Range: $1.10–$1.45

The base case assumes post-FOMC calm persists, BTC remains range-bound between $67K–$75K, and no material XRP-specific catalyst emerges. In this scenario, XRP continues to consolidate within its established descending channel while respecting the $1.10 floor as the multi-year ascending trendline converges with price. Daily volume is expected to remain subdued as month-end approaches, with a slight uptick on Friday, March 27 as weekly and monthly candles both prepare to close.

Assumptions: Fed rate path uncertainty keeps institutional capital on the sidelines; XRP ETF flows remain modest; BTC dominance stays elevated, limiting altcoin upside; no significant XRP-specific headline.

Bull Case Range: $1.45–$1.70

The bull case requires a clear risk-on catalyst. If BTC reclaims $75,000 and shows sustained buying, altcoins—including XRP—would benefit from a rotation. A spike in XRP ETF inflows (exceeding $80M weekly) or a positive RLUSD Japan deployment update via SBI could provide the XRP-specific fuel needed to break above $1.45 resistance.

Breakout triggers: daily close above $1.45 with volume exceeding $5B on two consecutive sessions; BTC daily close above $75K; RSI breaking above 40 on the daily chart after extended oversold readings.

Bear Case Range: $0.90–$1.10

The bear case activates if macro risk-off conditions intensify. A BTC breakdown below $67K, coupled with rising geopolitical tension or unexpectedly hawkish Fed commentary from officials during the week, could accelerate selling across crypto. For XRP specifically, continued distribution from large whale wallets (1–10M XRP holders) combined with thin liquidity conditions heading into quarter-end could push price toward the $1.00–$0.90 support zone.

Breakdown triggers: daily close below $1.10 on elevated volume exceeding $8B; BTC losing $67K support; funding rates turning deeply negative (below -0.03%); whale net outflows accelerating on exchange flow data.

Key Support and Resistance Levels (Weekly + Month-End Context)

Support Zones

The primary support zone sits at $1.00–$1.10, where the multi-year ascending trendline from the March 2020 cycle low ($0.114) converges with the projected ABC correction C-wave target identified by multiple analysts. This level has not been tested since late 2024 and represents a structurally significant floor. The defense criteria for this zone include: daily volume staying below the 20-day average on approach (orderly decline rather than panic), RSI holding above 20, and the presence of spot bid clusters visible on order-book depth data.

Secondary support at $1.20–$1.29 aligns with the Fibonacci 78.6% retracement level and the recent swing-low cluster established in early February. A bounce from this zone would be consistent with a relief rally within the broader downtrend. Failure signal: a daily close below $1.20 on volume exceeding $6B shifts attention to the primary support zone below.

Resistance Zones

Immediate resistance at $1.40–$1.50 marks the broken Fibonacci 78.6% level that previously acted as support through January. The 50-day moving average also transits through this zone, making it a significant confluence area. Reclaim criteria: two consecutive daily closes above $1.50 with rising volume and a positive MACD histogram shift on the daily chart.

Key resistance at $1.65–$1.71 represents the February consolidation range floor that has since become overhead supply. This level aligns with the EMA20 on the weekly chart ($1.83 adjusted downward as the average slopes lower). A reclaim of $1.71 on a daily closing basis would be the first structural sign that the downtrend is losing momentum. For more on how these levels fit into the broader XRP technical analysis framework, see the dedicated analysis page.

Invalidation Level

A decisive break below $0.95 on a daily closing basis would invalidate the base scenario entirely. Below this level, there is no meaningful historical support until the October 2025 swing low near $0.78. A close below $0.95 would trigger a scenario switch to the extended bear case, requiring a full re-evaluation of the Q2 2026 outlook.

Month-End Levels That Matter into April

The March monthly candle close on March 31 will either confirm or challenge the current regime. The critical month-end thresholds are:

• Above $1.45: Constructive. Suggests the worst of the downtrend may be fading. April opens with neutral-to-bullish bias.
• Between $1.10–$1.45: Neutral. Base scenario carries forward. Monitor April’s first weekly close for direction.
• Below $1.10: Bearish. Confirms the extended downtrend. April planning should account for a potential retest of $0.90–$1.00.

Catalysts to Watch This Week

Macro Calendar and Risk Appetite

The most impactful scheduled macro event this week is the U.S. PCE Price Index release on Friday, March 28. As the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, a hotter-than-expected reading could reignite hawkish expectations and pressure risk assets. Conversely, a softer print would reinforce the case for rate cuts, benefiting crypto broadly.

Quarter-end rebalancing by institutional portfolio managers is also a factor. Traditional finance flows tend to increase volatility in the final days of a quarter as funds adjust allocations. This can create choppy conditions in crypto markets, particularly for assets with growing institutional exposure like XRP through ETF products.

Crypto Liquidity Signals

BTC’s behavior remains the primary directional driver for XRP, with correlation exceeding 0.85 on weekly timeframes. Monitor BTC’s reaction to its $67K–$75K range: a breakout in either direction will likely drag altcoins along. Beyond BTC, track aggregate crypto market open interest for signs of leverage rebuilding or further deleveraging. XRP ETF net flows deserve attention—weekly inflows above $80M have historically correlated with price stability, while net outflows tend to precede further weakness. For a deeper look at how these liquidity dynamics shape XRP’s outlook, visit the XRP sentiment and liquidity tracker.

XRP-Specific Catalysts

Several XRP-native developments could generate price movement this week. The RLUSD Japan launch via SBI remains in progress, and any public confirmation of go-live timing would be a material positive for XRP’s utility narrative. Japan accounts for a significant share of Ripple’s global payment volume, and stablecoin deployment there would mark a structural upgrade to the XRP Ledger’s operational capacity. The Ripple U.S. bank charter application is still pending, and any news—positive or negative—from regulators would be market-moving. Separately, the XRPL Foundation governance transition continues, which could attract developer and institutional attention. For a comprehensive view of which XRP catalysts are most likely to move price, see the dedicated catalysts page.

Catalyst-to-Trigger Map

Catalyst	Metric	Threshold	Scenario Impact
U.S. PCE Price Index (Mar 28)	Core PCE YoY	Above 3.0% = hawkish; below 2.6% = dovish	Hot print: bear pressure. Cool print: bull catalyst.
BTC price action	BTC daily close	Above $75K = risk-on; below $67K = risk-off	Determines altcoin directional bias for the week
XRP ETF weekly flows	Net inflow/outflow	Net inflow > $80M = supportive; net outflow = bearish	Stabilizes or destabilizes the $1.20+ support zone
RLUSD Japan update	SBI public statement	Go-live confirmation vs. delay announcement	Confirmation = bull case trigger; delay = neutral to mildly bearish
Whale distribution pace	1–10M wallet net flow	Net selling > 50M XRP/week = bearish pressure	Accelerated selling undermines support zones
Quarter-end rebalancing	Crypto aggregate volume	Volume spike > 30% above 20-day avg on Mar 27–31	Elevated volatility; potential for false breakouts in either direction

Weekly Monitoring Plan (Non-Advice)

This section provides a structured framework for tracking XRP’s price action during the week of March 23, 2026. It is not financial advice and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any asset.

Daily Checklist

• Check XRP daily close relative to $1.20 support and $1.45 resistance.
• Monitor BTC’s position within $67K–$75K range.
• Review XRP perpetual funding rates and open interest changes.
• Track XRP ETF daily flow data (when available).
• Scan for XRP-specific headlines: RLUSD, bank charter, XRPL governance.
• Note any FOMC member speeches or Fed commentary during the week.
• On March 28: review PCE data release and market reaction.
• On March 27–28: watch for quarter-end volume spikes and unusual price action.

If/Then Playbook (with Month-End Rules)

Condition	Then	Month-End Rule
XRP closes above $1.45 twice this week	Base scenario shifts toward bull case; watch for $1.65 test	If held through Mar 31, April opens with constructive structure
XRP holds $1.20–$1.29 and bounces	Base scenario intact; range-bound week expected	Monthly close in this zone = neutral carry for April
XRP closes below $1.10	Bear scenario activates; monitor $1.00 trendline	Monthly close below $1.10 = bear regime confirmation for April
XRP closes below $0.95	Full invalidation; switch to extended bear outlook	Re-evaluate entire Q2 framework; April bear target = $0.78
BTC breaks above $75K	Risk-on shift; XRP likely tests $1.45+ resistance	Broad crypto momentum would support a stronger April open
BTC breaks below $67K	Risk-off intensifies; XRP support zones under pressure	Broad weakness into month-end increases April downside risk
PCE comes in hot (>3.0% core YoY)	Hawkish repricing; crypto likely sells off	Rate-cut expectations delayed; negative for Q2 risk appetite
PCE comes in cool (<2.6% core YoY)	Dovish signal; crypto gets a lift	Rate-cut odds rise; supportive for April recovery scenario

Related Forecasts (Internal Routing)

March Planning Pages

• XRP Price Prediction – Master Hub
• XRP Price Prediction – March 2026
• XRP Price Prediction – This Week

Next Month and April Routing

• XRP Next Month Prediction
• XRP Price Prediction – April 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

Update Log

• March 23, 2026: Initial publication. Base case range set at $1.10–$1.45. Regime label: downtrend / month-end positioning.

This section will be updated throughout the week as new data becomes available and conditions change. Check back for mid-week and post-PCE updates.

Post-Week Outcome Summary

[This section will be added after the week of March 23, 2026 concludes. It will include the weekly high, low, and close; whether the base, bull, or bear scenario played out; how the March monthly close resolved; whether month-end levels were defended or lost; and forward implications for April scenario planning.]

Outcome Summary Template

Metric	Result
Weekly High	[Pending]
Weekly Low	[Pending]
Weekly Close	[Pending]
Monthly Close (Mar 31)	[Pending]
Scenario Confirmed	[Pending]
Month-End Zones Defended?	[Pending]
April Regime Implication	[Pending]

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and speculative. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. VTrader.io does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information presented.