Table of Contents
XRP Weekly Forecast: Week of March 16, 2026
What are the key XRP support and resistance levels this week?
This week’s XRP key levels are the support zones that must hold to keep the base case intact and the resistance zones that must break to confirm upside. Breakouts above resistance shift probability to the bull case; breaks below support shift it to the bear case.
XRP enters the week of March 16, 2026, trading near $1.55 within a consolidation regime after February’s weakness and early March’s tentative stabilization. The expected base-case range for the week is $1.42–$1.72, with the FOMC meeting on March 17–18 acting as the dominant volatility catalyst. The broader regime remains range-bound with a slight bearish lean until price reclaims the $1.70–$1.80 zone with conviction. Traders should watch the FOMC rate decision and dot-plot guidance on Wednesday, March 18, as the primary directional trigger for the week.
Weekly Scenario Summary
| Scenario | Probability | Expected Range | Key Trigger | Invalidation |
| Base Case | 55% | $1.42 – $1.72 | FOMC holds rates; neutral guidance | Daily close above $1.80 or below $1.35 |
| Bull Case | 20% | $1.72 – $1.95 | Dovish FOMC surprise; XRP ETF flow surge | Rejection at $1.80 with rising volume |
| Bear Case | 25% | $1.25 – $1.42 | Hawkish FOMC; global risk-off; whale sell-off | Reclaim $1.55 with spot volume |
Key Levels Snapshot
| Level / Zone | Type | Confirmation Signal | Failure Signal |
| $1.42 – $1.45 | Support | Bounce with rising spot volume, RSI divergence | Daily close below $1.40 on elevated volume |
| $1.50 – $1.52 | Support | Reclaim with 4H close above; funding neutral | Multiple 4H closes below with rising OI |
| $1.65 – $1.70 | Resistance | Break above $1.70 with follow-through candle | Wick above $1.70 followed by sell-off |
| $1.80 – $1.85 | Resistance | Daily close above $1.85 with spot-led rally | Sharp rejection with funding spike |
| $1.25 | Invalidation | Scenario switch to extended bear | N/A — triggers full re-assessment |
Catalyst Radar
| Catalyst | Category | Watch Metric | Scenario Impact |
| FOMC Rate Decision (Mar 17–18) | Macro | Rate decision + dot-plot + Powell presser | Dovish = bull; hawkish = bear |
| XRP ETF Weekly Flows | Crypto Liquidity | Net inflows vs. prior week | Positive inflows sustain base/bull |
| RLUSD Japan Deployment Updates | XRP-Specific | SBI/Ripple announcements | Progress = mid-term bull catalyst |
| Open Interest + Funding Rates | Crypto Leverage | OI change, funding rate extremes | Crowded longs = squeeze risk (bear) |
| U.S. Crypto Legislation Progress | XRP-Specific | Market-structure bill updates | Progress = bull; stall = neutral |
Quick Navigation
→ XRP Price Prediction — March 2026
→ Previous Week: Week of Mar 09, 2026
→ Next Week: Week of Mar 23, 2026
→ XRP Price Prediction — Next Month
What Changed Since Last Week (Week of Mar 09 → Mar 16)
Price Structure Changes (Trend, Range, Volatility)
XRP closed the week of March 9 near $1.55 after briefly testing $1.62 mid-week before sellers defended that level. The broader structure remains within a descending channel that has governed price action since the July 2025 all-time high of $3.65. Week-over-week, XRP printed a marginally lower high ($1.62 vs. $1.68 the prior week) and a higher low ($1.48 vs. $1.45), suggesting compression within the range. Volatility declined slightly, with the 7-day realized volatility dropping from approximately 58% annualized to 52%, indicating the market is coiling ahead of the FOMC event.
The weekly candle formed a small-bodied doji, reflecting indecision. The 50-day moving average on the daily chart continues to slope downward and sits near $1.70, acting as dynamic resistance. The 200-day moving average is near $1.90, reinforcing the $1.80–$1.85 resistance zone identified in this week’s key levels. For a deeper look at the technical setup, see the XRP price prediction technical analysis page.
Liquidity and Leverage Changes (OI, Funding, Liquidation Risk)
Aggregate open interest in XRP perpetual futures declined approximately 8% week-over-week, dropping from an estimated $1.2 billion to roughly $1.1 billion. This reduction signals that leveraged participants are de-risking ahead of the FOMC meeting, which historically triggers sharp moves in risk assets. Funding rates have remained neutral to slightly negative across major exchanges, indicating no extreme directional bias in the derivatives market.
Liquidation heatmaps show clustered long liquidations between $1.38 and $1.42, while short liquidations are concentrated near $1.68–$1.72. These clusters align closely with this week’s identified support and resistance zones, meaning any move toward those levels could trigger cascading liquidations that amplify volatility. Exchange balances remain suppressed near multi-year lows, suggesting structural supply tightness. For more on how funding and open interest shape the outlook, see XRP price prediction sentiment and liquidity analysis.
XRP Weekly Range Forecast (Week of Mar 16, 2026)
Base Case Range and Assumptions
The base case projects XRP trading between $1.42 and $1.72 for the week, with the midpoint near current levels around $1.55. This scenario assumes the FOMC holds rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% (as it did in January) and delivers neutral forward guidance without signaling imminent cuts or additional tightening. Under these conditions, XRP is expected to remain range-bound, oscillating between the lower support near $1.42–$1.45 and overhead resistance at $1.65–$1.70, with a brief volatility spike around the Wednesday afternoon rate announcement before settling.
This scenario carries a 55% probability weighting. The key assumption is that no exogenous shock (macro or XRP-specific) disrupts the current equilibrium. ETF flows are expected to remain modestly positive but insufficient to break the range. The weekly close position relative to $1.55 will determine whether the base case holds entering the following week.
Bull Case Range and Breakout Triggers
The bull case targets a range of $1.72–$1.95, activated if the FOMC delivers a dovish surprise. This could take the form of an unexpected rate cut, a materially lower dot-plot median, or language indicating cuts are imminent at the April or June meeting. A dovish shift would weaken the dollar, lift risk assets broadly, and likely trigger short covering in XRP futures given the short liquidation cluster near $1.70.
Additional triggers that could support the bull case include a surge in XRP ETF inflows above $100 million for the week, positive headlines around the RLUSD Japan launch through SBI, or progress on U.S. crypto market-structure legislation. A confirmed daily close above $1.80 with above-average spot volume would shift the weekly scenario weighting decisively toward the bull case. The current probability weighting for this scenario is 20%.
Bear Case Range and Breakdown Triggers
The bear case projects a range of $1.25–$1.42, triggered primarily by a hawkish FOMC outcome. If the Fed signals that rate cuts are off the table for 2026 or revises inflation projections upward, risk assets would face broad selling pressure. XRP, as a high-beta crypto asset, would likely underperform in such an environment.
Other bear triggers include a global risk-off event (geopolitical escalation, equity market correction), a sudden spike in XRP open interest combined with extreme positive funding (indicating crowded longs vulnerable to a squeeze), or net ETF outflows for the first time since the products launched in November 2025. A decisive daily close below $1.40 would confirm the bear case is active. This scenario carries a 25% probability weighting.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Support Zones (Defense Criteria and Failure Signal)
Two primary support zones frame the downside for the week of March 16. The first is the $1.50–$1.52 zone, which represents the lower bound of the recent consolidation range and the approximate level where buyers stepped in during the second week of March. A defense of this zone requires a bounce with spot volume confirmation and neutral-to-negative funding rates (indicating the bounce is spot-driven rather than leverage-driven). Failure at this level is confirmed by two or more consecutive 4-hour candle closes below $1.50 with rising open interest, suggesting new short positions are being established.
The second and deeper support zone sits at $1.42–$1.45. This area aligns with the lower boundary of the descending channel, the long liquidation cluster identified in derivatives data, and the approximate level where mega-whale wallets (1 billion+ XRP) accumulated heavily in January. A bounce from this zone would need to be accompanied by a spike in spot buying volume and a visible reduction in sell pressure on order books. A daily close below $1.40 invalidates both support zones and triggers a scenario switch to the bear case, with the next downside target near $1.25.
Resistance Zones (Reclaim Criteria and Rejection Signal)
Overhead resistance begins at the $1.65–$1.70 zone, which coincides with the 50-day moving average and the prior week’s high. Reclaiming this zone requires a daily close above $1.70 with follow-through buying in the next session (not just a wick). If price reaches $1.70 and immediately reverses on elevated volume, this constitutes a rejection that reinforces the base-case range.
The more significant resistance zone is $1.80–$1.85, where the 200-day moving average and a horizontal supply zone from December 2025 converge. Breaking through this level would represent a structural shift in the medium-term trend and would likely require a strong catalyst (dovish FOMC, ETF flow acceleration, or a major XRP-specific headline). A daily close above $1.85 on spot-led volume shifts the weekly outlook firmly into the bull case.
Invalidation Level (Scenario Switch)
The invalidation level for the base case is set at $1.25. A move to this level would represent a roughly 19% decline from the current price and would break below all identified support zones. If XRP reaches $1.25, the base and bull scenarios are fully invalidated, and the outlook shifts to an extended bear phase with potential downside toward $1.00–$1.10. This level aligns with technical targets from the descending channel measured move and the area some analysts have identified as a death-cross target from late 2025.
Catalysts to Watch This Week
Macro Calendar (Risk Appetite Drivers)
The FOMC meeting on March 17–18 is the most significant macro event of the week and arguably the most important for crypto markets in Q1 2026. The January meeting held rates at 3.50%–3.75%, and the market is pricing in approximately a 65% probability that the Fed holds again in March. However, the March meeting also includes the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the dot-plot, which provide forward guidance on the expected rate path for the remainder of 2026. A dovish tilt in the dot-plot (more members projecting cuts) would be bullish for risk assets; a hawkish tilt would pressure them. For ongoing catalyst tracking, see the XRP price prediction catalysts page.
Beyond the FOMC, traders should watch Tuesday’s retail sales data and Thursday’s initial jobless claims. Weak economic data ahead of the FOMC decision could reinforce dovish expectations, while strong data could support a “higher for longer” narrative. The dollar index (DXY) remains a key leading indicator for XRP and crypto broadly; a weakening dollar typically supports crypto prices.
Crypto Liquidity and Leverage Signals
XRP ETF flows remain the most transparent real-time measure of institutional demand. Since launching in November 2025, XRP ETFs have accumulated over $1.3 billion in net inflows with remarkably consistent daily positive flows. Any weekly net outflows would represent a first and could signal a shift in institutional sentiment. Beyond ETFs, Bitcoin’s behavior around its own key levels will influence XRP. If Bitcoin holds above $70,000, it provides a supportive backdrop for altcoins; a break below $68,000 would likely drag XRP lower regardless of its own technicals.
Stablecoin supply on major exchanges is another liquidity metric to monitor. Growing stablecoin reserves on exchanges suggest capital is being positioned to buy, while declining reserves indicate capital flight. Combined with XRP’s own exchange balance (near multi-year lows), any increase in exchange-held XRP this week could signal distribution from whales.
XRP-Specific Catalysts (Legal, ETF, Access, Ecosystem)
With the SEC lawsuit settled (Ripple agreed to a $50 million settlement in August 2025, and XRP was clarified as not a security when sold on exchanges), the legal overhang has largely cleared. The focus now shifts to institutional access and ecosystem expansion. Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin launch in Japan through SBI remains on track for Q1 2026, and any confirmation of deployment timelines this week could serve as a positive catalyst.
Additionally, Ripple’s application for a U.S. bank charter remains pending. Approval would expand XRP’s legitimacy with institutional investors. Archax’s tokenization partnership with Ripple on the XRPL is another medium-term catalyst that could surface in headlines. For the full view of XRP’s catalyst landscape, visit the XRP price prediction hub.
Catalyst-to-Trigger Map
| Catalyst | Watch Metric | Threshold | Scenario Impact |
| FOMC Rate Decision | Dot-plot median | 2+ cuts projected for 2026 | Bull: risk-on rally; bear if 0 cuts |
| XRP ETF Weekly Flows | Net inflows (USD) | > $80M = supportive; < $0 = warning | Sustained flows anchor base/bull case |
| BTC Price Action | BTC daily close | Hold $70K = supportive; < $68K = risk | BTC weakness drags XRP lower |
| XRP Open Interest | Aggregate OI change | > 15% spike = squeeze risk | Crowded positioning amplifies moves |
| RLUSD / SBI Update | Official announcement | Confirmed launch date | Mid-term bull catalyst for XRP |
Weekly Monitoring Plan (Non-Advice)
This monitoring plan is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. All observations should be verified independently before any action is taken.
Daily Checklist
• Check XRP price relative to $1.50 support and $1.70 resistance at the daily close (00:00 UTC).
• Monitor XRP ETF daily flow data when available (typically reported by mid-morning U.S. Eastern time).
• Review aggregate open interest and funding rates across major perpetual futures exchanges.
• Track DXY (dollar index) and BTC price for macro correlation signals.
• On Wednesday, March 18: monitor the FOMC rate decision (2:00 PM ET) and Powell press conference (2:30 PM ET) in real time.
• Note any XRP-specific headlines (RLUSD deployment, Ripple bank charter, ETF issuer announcements).
• Record observations in the update log at the bottom of this page.
If/Then Playbook
| If This Happens… | Then Consider This… |
| XRP closes daily above $1.70 with spot volume | Shift probability toward bull case; watch $1.80 resistance next |
| XRP closes daily below $1.42 | Shift probability toward bear case; $1.25 becomes next downside target |
| FOMC dot-plot shows 2+ rate cuts projected | Risk-on environment likely; increase bull case probability to 35%+ |
| FOMC signals no cuts in 2026 | Risk-off pressure; increase bear case probability to 40%+ |
| XRP ETF records first net outflow day/week | Flag institutional sentiment shift; re-assess base case assumptions |
| OI spikes > 15% with extreme positive funding | Long squeeze risk elevated; tighten downside invalidation to $1.48 |
| BTC breaks below $68,000 | XRP likely follows; reduce bull probability regardless of XRP-specific signals |
Related Forecasts
March Planning Pages
For the broader monthly context, see the XRP price prediction for March 2026 hub. Weekly forecasts feed into the monthly outlook by documenting how scenarios evolved week over week. The March hub aggregates these checkpoints into a single view of how the month unfolded relative to expectations.
Next Month Hub
Planning ahead? The XRP price prediction for next month page provides scenario frameworks and level mapping for the month ahead. It will be updated with forward-looking analysis as March concludes.
Next Week Forecast (Week of Mar 23, 2026)
The next week’s XRP forecast (Week of Mar 23, 2026) will be published before the weekly open and will incorporate the FOMC outcome, updated levels, and any new catalysts that surface during this week.
For the full weekly forecast archive, visit the XRP weekly forecast hub. To review how this week compares to the prior week, see the Week of Mar 09, 2026 forecast.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the XRP weekly forecast for the week of Mar 16, 2026?
This weekly forecast provides base, bull, and bear scenario ranges, key support and resistance levels, and a catalyst radar for the week of March 16, 2026. The base case projects a range of $1.42–$1.72, with the FOMC meeting on March 17–18 acting as the primary catalyst that could shift the outlook in either direction.
What are the key support and resistance levels for XRP this week?
This week’s primary support zones are $1.50–$1.52 and $1.42–$1.45. Resistance sits at $1.65–$1.70 (50-day MA and prior week high) and $1.80–$1.85 (200-day MA and December supply zone). Holding support keeps the base case intact; breaking above resistance confirms bullish momentum.
Which catalysts matter most for XRP this week?
The FOMC rate decision and dot-plot update on March 18 is the dominant catalyst. Secondary catalysts include XRP ETF weekly flows, RLUSD Japan deployment updates from Ripple and SBI, and changes in XRP open interest and funding rates across derivatives exchanges.
What would invalidate the base scenario this week?
A decisive daily close below $1.40 or above $1.80 would invalidate the base case. Below $1.40, the bear scenario becomes primary with a downside target near $1.25. Above $1.80 on spot volume, the bull scenario becomes primary with targets toward $1.95.
How do funding and open interest affect the weekly outlook?
High open interest with extreme funding rates signals crowded positioning and squeeze risk, which can widen the expected range. Currently, OI has declined and funding is neutral, suggesting the market is not over-leveraged entering the FOMC event. A sudden spike in OI during the week would increase volatility risk.
How should I update the forecast if XRP breaks a key level?
Use the if/then playbook in the monitoring plan section. A breakout above $1.70 with daily close confirmation shifts probability toward the bull case. A breakdown below $1.42 shifts probability toward the bear case. Record all changes in the update log and reference the updated scenario weighting.
Where can I find March’s monthly forecast?
The March monthly forecast is available on the XRP price prediction for March 2026 hub page. Weekly forecasts link to the monthly hub for broader context, and the monthly hub references each weekly checkpoint.
Where can I find next week’s XRP forecast?
Next week’s forecast (Week of Mar 23, 2026) will be linked in the Related Forecasts section above and on the XRP Weekly Forecast Hub as soon as it is published.
Update Log
| Date / Time (UTC) | Update |
| Mar 16, 2026 — 06:00 UTC | Initial weekly forecast published with base/bull/bear scenarios, levels, and catalyst radar. |
| [To be updated] | [Record FOMC outcome and scenario weighting changes here after the March 18 decision.] |
Post-Week Outcome Summary
[This section will be added after the week of March 16, 2026, concludes. It will include the weekly high, low, and closing price, which scenario played out, which triggers fired, and lessons for the following week’s forecast.]
| Metric | Result |
| Weekly High | [To be recorded] |
| Weekly Low | [To be recorded] |
| Weekly Close | [To be recorded] |
| Scenario That Played Out | [Base / Bull / Bear] |
| Triggers That Fired | [List triggers that activated] |
| Key Takeaway for Next Week | [Summary] |
Disclaimer
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and involve substantial risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. VTrader.io does not recommend buying, selling, or holding any specific cryptocurrency.
Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
