XRP Weekly Forecast: Week of March 02, 2026

What is the XRP forecast for this week?

This week’s XRP forecast is best expressed as scenarios. Use the base/bull/bear ranges, the key support and resistance zones, and clear confirmation/invalidation triggers to update the outlook as liquidity, catalysts, and market regime change through the week.

XRP enters the first full week of March 2026 trading near $1.50-$1.60 after February closed with significant downside pressure. The February monthly close breached intermediate support, shifting the short-term regime from neutral to cautiously bearish. This week marks a transition point: March begins with XRP testing critical demand zones while catalysts including macro and XRP-specific developments could set the tone for early-month price action. The expected weekly range spans $1.35-$1.85 under the base scenario, with scenario-dependent triggers determining whether price stabilizes, extends lower, or stages a relief rally.

Weekly Scenario Summary

Scenario	Expected Range	Triggers	Confirmation	Invalidation
Base Case	$1.35 – $1.85	Neutral ETF flows, stable macro, range-bound BTC	Daily closes between $1.50-$1.70	Break below $1.35 or above $1.90
Bull Case	$1.70 – $2.10	Strong ETF inflows >$100M weekly, dovish Fed signals, BTC reclaims $85K	Daily close above $1.80 with volume surge	Rejection at $1.97-$2.00 with rising exchange inflows
Bear Case	$1.20 – $1.50	ETF outflows, hawkish Fed, BTC breaks $75K, exchange balance surge	Daily close below $1.46 with elevated volume	Reclaim of $1.60 with declining exchange inflows

Key Levels Snapshot

• Primary Support Zones: $1.50, $1.46, $1.35
• Primary Resistance Zones: $1.70, $1.80, $1.97-$2.00
• Invalidation Level (Bear): Weekly close above $1.90
• Invalidation Level (Bull): Weekly close below $1.35

Catalyst Radar

• Macro: March FOMC meeting expectations, Fed rate policy signals, global risk appetite
• Crypto Liquidity: BTC price action, XRP ETF flows, exchange balance changes
• XRP-Specific: RLUSD development updates, XRP Community Day (Feb 11-12), whale accumulation patterns

Related Forecasts: XRP Weekly Hub | March 2026 Hub | Previous Week (Feb 23) | Next Week (Mar 09)

What Changed Since Last Week (Week of Feb 23 → Mar 02)

The transition from February to March brings several structural changes that affect this week’s XRP forecast assumptions. Understanding what shifted at the February monthly close is essential for calibrating scenario probabilities.

Month-Start Changes (Monthly Close Effects)

February 2026 closed with XRP trading near $1.50-$1.55, representing a monthly decline of approximately 20-25% from January’s levels. This monthly close carries significant implications:

• The $1.80-$2.00 zone, which previously acted as support from the 2024 breakout, has now flipped to resistance
• February’s median historical return of -8.12% materialized with even greater downside this year
• Price now trades below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs, confirming a bearish technical structure
• The RSI has moved into oversold territory (below 30), suggesting potential for short-term relief but not necessarily trend reversal

Month-Start Delta Box

Metric	February Close	Implication for Week
Monthly Close Price	~$1.50-$1.55	Below key support; bearish bias persists
Support/Resistance Flip	$1.80-$2.00 now resistance	Reclaim needed for bull case activation
Monthly Return	-20% to -25%	Oversold conditions may attract dip buyers
RSI (Daily)	Below 30 (Oversold)	Relief rally possible but not trend reversal

Liquidity/Leverage Changes (OI, Funding, Volume)

Derivatives market conditions have shifted notably since mid-February. For deeper analysis of these metrics, see our XRP sentiment and liquidity analysis:

• Open Interest has declined to approximately $2.6-$2.9 billion, down from peaks above $10 billion in July 2025
• OI-Weighted Funding Rate remains low-positive (0.0055%-0.0073%), indicating neutral-to-slightly-long positioning
• Exchange balances have stabilized after declining 57% through 2025, but recent inflows of 260 million XRP in January raised near-term volatility concerns
• XRP ETF cumulative inflows stand at approximately $1.17-$1.3 billion with total AUM around $1.1-$1.24 billion

The declining leverage environment suggests that any sustained rally in March will likely be driven by spot demand rather than derivatives speculation. This is a healthier setup for durable price moves but requires genuine buying pressure to materialize.

XRP Weekly Range Forecast (Week of Mar 02, 2026)

The weekly forecast uses a scenario-based framework rather than a single price target. For our complete forecasting methodology, see the XRP price prediction main hub. Each scenario carries distinct range expectations, trigger conditions, and invalidation signals.

Base Case Range + Assumptions

Expected Range: $1.35 – $1.85

The base case assumes XRP consolidates within the current demand zone without a decisive breakout or breakdown. Key assumptions include:

• XRP ETF flows remain neutral to slightly positive (between -$20M and +$50M weekly net)
• Bitcoin trades within a $75K-$90K range without triggering broad risk-off sentiment
• No major macro surprises; Fed maintains current rate stance expectations
• Exchange inflows and outflows roughly balanced

Under this scenario, expect choppy price action with potential retests of both $1.50 support and $1.70 resistance. The $1.50-$1.60 zone should see the most trading activity as buyers and sellers contest the near-term direction.

Bull Case Range + Breakout Triggers

Expected Range: $1.70 – $2.10

The bull case requires multiple catalysts to align. This scenario becomes active if:

• XRP ETF weekly inflows exceed $100 million
• Bitcoin reclaims $85K and holds above, signaling risk-on sentiment
• Fed communication turns dovish ahead of March FOMC, boosting rate cut expectations
• XRP closes above $1.80 on daily timeframe with above-average volume
• Whale accumulation patterns strengthen (mega-whale addresses adding positions)

The key confirmation level for the bull case is a sustained close above $1.97-$2.00, which would reclaim the former support zone. If this occurs, upside targets extend toward $2.30-$2.40. Note: The probability of the bull case remains lower than base case given current market structure.

Bear Case Range + Breakdown Triggers

Expected Range: $1.20 – $1.50

The bear case represents an extension of February’s downtrend. Triggers for this scenario include:

• XRP ETF outflows exceed $50 million weekly
• Bitcoin breaks below $75K, triggering broad crypto liquidations
• Exchange inflows surge as holders move to sell
• Daily close below $1.46 confirms breakdown from current demand zone
• Hawkish Fed signals or macro risk-off event (geopolitical, economic data miss)

Historical pattern analysis suggests $1.20 as a potential bottom zone under aggressive bearish conditions. Some analysts project a possible wick to $1.00 if capitulation occurs, though this represents an extreme scenario. The $1.35 level is the first major support below current trading.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

For detailed level analysis and chart patterns, see the XRP technical analysis hub.

Support Zones (Defense Criteria + Failure Signal)

Level Zone	Evidence	Defense Criteria	Failure Signal
$1.50 – $1.55	February close zone; prior demand area from late 2024	Daily close above $1.50 with declining sell volume	Two consecutive daily closes below $1.50
$1.46	Fibonacci support; prior reaction level	Intraday wick followed by strong close above	Daily close below with elevated volume
$1.35 – $1.37	Lower Bollinger Band zone; psychological level	Sharp reversal candle on daily	Weekly close below $1.35
$1.20 – $1.24	Historical pattern target; analyst downside projection	High-volume capitulation followed by reversal	Sustained trading below $1.20

Resistance Zones (Reclaim Criteria + Rejection Signal)

Level Zone	Evidence	Reclaim Criteria	Rejection Signal
$1.65 – $1.70	Lower Bollinger Band (prior); immediate overhead supply	Daily close above $1.70 with volume expansion	Multiple daily wicks above with closes below
$1.80	Prior support now resistance; critical structural level	Two-day close above with declining short OI	Failed retest with immediate sell-off
$1.93 – $2.00	50-day SMA zone; psychological $2.00 barrier	Weekly close above $2.00 with strong ETF inflows	Sharp reversal from $1.97-$2.00 zone
$2.20 – $2.30	Upper Bollinger Band; bull case target zone	Sustained closes above $2.20 with trend confirmation	Bearish engulfing pattern on approach

Invalidation Level (Scenario Switch)

Invalidation levels determine when to abandon one scenario and switch to another:

• Base → Bear: Weekly close below $1.35 or daily close below $1.24
• Base → Bull: Weekly close above $1.90 with volume confirmation
• Bear → Base: Reclaim of $1.60 with declining exchange inflows and positive ETF flows
• Bull → Base: Rejection at $2.00 followed by close below $1.80

Catalysts to Watch This Week

For comprehensive catalyst tracking and impact analysis, see our dedicated XRP catalysts hub.

Macro Calendar (Risk Appetite Drivers)

The macro environment remains a primary driver for XRP and broader crypto markets. Key factors this week include:

• Federal Reserve Policy Expectations: The Fed currently holds rates at 3.5%-3.75%. Market expectations for the March FOMC meeting center on whether additional cuts are signaled. Goldman Sachs projects two more cuts in 2026, bringing rates to approximately 3%-3.25%
• Inflation Data: Any surprises in inflation readings could shift Fed expectations and impact risk asset positioning
• US Dollar Strength: USD performance affects XRP; a stronger dollar typically pressures crypto prices
• Global Risk Sentiment: Equity market performance and VIX levels provide context for crypto risk appetite

Crypto Liquidity and Leverage Signals

• Bitcoin Price Action: BTC serves as the primary risk barometer for altcoins. Watch for BTC to hold above $75K for stable conditions or reclaim $85K for bullish signals
• XRP ETF Flows: Weekly inflows above $80-$100 million would signal institutional confidence; outflows suggest caution
• Open Interest Trends: Rising OI with stable funding suggests new capital entering; declining OI indicates deleveraging
• Exchange Balance Changes: Net inflows to exchanges often precede selling pressure; net outflows suggest accumulation

XRP-Specific Catalysts (Legal/ETF/Access, Ecosystem)

• XRP Community Day (Feb 11-12): Global event outlining 2026 priorities; watch for announcements on roadmap execution and partnerships
• RLUSD Development: Ripple’s USD-backed stablecoin continues to grow with approximately $1.4 billion in assets. Japan launch through SBI remains a key catalyst for Q1 2026
• XRPL Foundation: Formation of independent XRP Ledger Foundation with governance structure for developers, users, and validators
• CME 24/7 Trading: CME’s move to 24/7 crypto futures trading in Q2 2026 could increase institutional access
• Whale Activity: Early mega-whale accumulation patterns in February 2026 reduce probability of deep collapse but don’t eliminate short-term downside risk

Catalyst-to-Trigger Map

Catalyst	Metric	Threshold	Scenario Impact
XRP ETF Flows	Weekly net inflows	>$100M = Bull; <-$50M = Bear	High – directly impacts demand
Fed Communication	Rate cut probability	>70% March cut = Bull	Medium – affects risk appetite
Bitcoin Price	Weekly close	>$85K = Bull; <$75K = Bear	High – crypto risk barometer
Exchange Balance	Weekly change	>200M XRP inflow = Bear	Medium – selling pressure signal
RLUSD Updates	Japan launch progress	Approval = Bull catalyst	Medium – utility demand

Weekly Monitoring Plan (Non-Advice)

This monitoring framework helps track scenario evolution throughout the week. It is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

Daily Checklist

• Morning: Check overnight XRP price action and BTC correlation; review any ETF flow updates
• Midday: Monitor exchange balance changes and whale wallet movements; check macro news for Fed-related commentary
• Close: Review daily candle close relative to key support/resistance levels; update scenario probability based on triggers
• Weekly: Assess whether invalidation conditions have been met; prepare for next week’s forecast adjustments

If/Then Playbook

If This Happens…	Then Consider This…
XRP closes daily above $1.70	Bull scenario probability increases; watch for $1.80 test
XRP closes daily below $1.46	Bear scenario activates; next support at $1.35
BTC breaks below $75K	Shift to defensive stance; expect XRP correlation sell-off
ETF weekly inflows exceed $100M	Institutional demand confirmed; bull case strengthens
Exchange inflows surge >200M XRP	Selling pressure likely imminent; cautious stance warranted
Fed signals more cuts	Risk-on environment; bull case for crypto including XRP
XRP reclaims $2.00	Major resistance flip; upside targets $2.30-$2.40

Related Forecasts (Internal Routing)

Navigate to related forecasts for broader context on XRP price predictions and market analysis:

March Monthly Forecast

For month-level planning and extended range expectations, see the XRP Price Prediction March 2026 hub. This monthly outlook provides scenario ranges, key monthly levels, and March-specific catalysts including the FOMC meeting and Q1 institutional positioning.

Next Month Hub + March Hub

• XRP Price Prediction — Main hub for all XRP forecasts and methodology
• XRP Price Prediction Weekly — Weekly forecast hub with historical archive
• XRP Price Prediction This Week — Current week quick-access page
• XRP Price Prediction March 2026 — Monthly forecast for March
• XRP Price Prediction Next Month — Forward-looking monthly hub
• XRP Technical Analysis — Detailed technical analysis and chart patterns
• XRP Catalysts — Comprehensive catalyst tracking and analysis
• XRP Sentiment & Liquidity — Market sentiment and liquidity analysis

Next Week Forecast (Week of Mar 09, 2026)

The next weekly forecast will be published ahead of the Week of Mar 09, 2026. Check the XRP Weekly Forecast 2026-03-09 page for updated scenarios, levels, and catalysts based on how this week concludes.

Previous Week: See the XRP Weekly Forecast Feb 23, 2026 for the prior week’s analysis and outcome summary.

Frequently Asked Questions

Update Log

• March 02, 2026: Initial weekly forecast published with base/bull/bear scenarios and key levels.
• [Updates will be logged here as the week progresses and triggers are confirmed/invalidated]

Post-Week Outcome Summary

[This section will be added after the week ends with a 2-4 sentence summary of how the week played out, including weekly high/low/close and which triggers fired.]

Outcome Summary Template:

Weekly High	Weekly Low	Weekly Close	Triggered Scenario
[TBD]	[TBD]	[TBD]	[TBD]

Disclaimer: This forecast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.