XRP Weekly Forecast: Week of February 16, 2026

What are the key XRP support and resistance levels this week?

This week’s XRP key levels are the support zones that must hold to keep the base case intact and the resistance zones that must break to confirm upside. Breakouts above resistance shift probability to the bull case; breaks below support shift it to the bear case.

Forecast Window: February 16–22, 2026 (Week 3 of February)

Published: February 16, 2026

Last Updated: February 16, 2026 (Initial weekly forecast)

Weekly Outlook: XRP enters Week 3 of February 2026 following last week’s CPI-driven move. The market regime has shifted to cautiously bullish after CPI data came in cooler than expected, supporting risk assets. XRP broke above the $4.50 resistance that had capped prior weeks’ rally attempts. This week’s expected range is $4.35-$5.10, with the base case anticipating consolidation above the breakout level. FOMC minutes (Wednesday Feb 18) is the week’s primary catalyst—Fed tone will confirm or challenge the dovish pivot narrative. Key focus: whether XRP can hold the $4.45 former resistance as new support and extend toward the $5.00 psychological level.

Week of Feb 16, 2026 Scenario Snapshot:

• Base ($4.45-$4.85): Consolidation above breakout; holds $4.45 support; tests $4.85 resistance; neutral FOMC minutes
• Bull ($4.85-$5.20): Break above $4.85 with volume; dovish FOMC = rate cut confirmation; BTC >$128K continuation
• Bear ($4.10-$4.45): Failed breakout; break below $4.45; hawkish FOMC surprise; risk-off rotation

Key Levels This Week:

• Support 1: $4.50-$4.60 (former resistance → new support; breakout retest zone)
• Support 2: $4.35-$4.45 (weekly floor; failed breakout level)
• Resistance 1: $4.85-$5.00 (psychological zone; bull trigger)
• Resistance 2: $5.15-$5.25 (extension target; monthly high zone)
• Weekly Invalidation: Daily close below $4.30 (breakout failure confirmed)

Catalyst Radar This Week:

• FOMC Minutes (Wed Feb 18): Week’s highest-impact macro catalyst
• Initial Jobless Claims (Thu): Labor market health signal
• BTC Regime: Watching $125K support; $130K breakout level
• ETF Flow Data: Post-CPI institutional positioning

Navigate: February 2026 monthly forecast | Weekly hub | This week hub | Last week (Feb 09)

What Changed Since Last Week (Week of Feb 09 → Feb 16)

Metric	Week of Feb 09	Week of Feb 16	Change
Weekly Range	$4.05-$4.75	$4.35-$5.10	Expanded up
Primary Support	$4.00-$4.10	$4.35-$4.45	+$0.35
Primary Resistance	$4.50-$4.60	$4.85-$5.00	+$0.35
Regime	Neutral (consolidation)	Cautiously bullish	Upgraded
BTC Regime	$122K stable	$126K breakout bias	Stronger
Key Catalyst	CPI (Feb 12)	FOMC Minutes (Feb 18)	Different

Structure (Trend/Range) Changes

Last week’s CPI came in cooler than expected (Core CPI +0.2% m/m vs +0.3% est), triggering a risk-on move across crypto. XRP broke above the $4.50-$4.60 resistance zone that had capped rallies for the prior two weeks. The structure has shifted from consolidation to cautiously bullish—former resistance is now being tested as support. Volatility expanded during the CPI reaction and may compress again as the market awaits FOMC minutes confirmation.

Liquidity/Leverage Changes (OI, Funding, Squeeze Risk)

Open interest has expanded with the breakout—new long positions entered the market post-CPI. Funding rates remain moderately positive (elevated but not extreme). The breakout triggered short liquidations above $4.55, clearing overhead supply. Key liquidation clusters now sit below $4.30 (longs) and above $5.10 (shorts). For positioning analysis methodology, see the sentiment and liquidity hub.

XRP Weekly Range Forecast (Week of Feb 16, 2026)

Scenario	Expected Range	Triggers	Confirmation	Invalidation	Probability
Base	$4.45-$4.85	Hold $4.45; test $4.85; neutral FOMC	Consolidation	Break S/R	~45%
Bull	$4.85-$5.20	Break $4.85; dovish FOMC; BTC >$128K	Daily close >$4.90	Rejection <$4.75	~35%
Bear	$4.10-$4.45	Break $4.45; hawkish FOMC; risk-off	Daily close <$4.40	Reclaim $4.55	~20%

Base Case Range + Assumptions

The base case ($4.45-$4.85) assumes: XRP consolidates above the breakout level, $4.45-$4.50 former resistance now acts as support, $4.85-$5.00 provides near-term resistance, BTC remains constructive in the $125K-$130K zone, FOMC minutes are neutral without major hawkish surprises, and positioning remains healthy without extreme funding. This is the post-breakout consolidation scenario—price builds a new base before attempting the $5.00 psychological level.

Bull Case Range + Breakout Triggers

The bull case ($4.85-$5.20) activates on: a confirmed break above $4.85 with volume, dovish FOMC minutes confirming rate cut trajectory, BTC breaking above $128K and continuing the February rally, or positive XRP-specific headlines (ETF, Ripple). Confirmation requires a daily close above $4.90. Target: $5.00-$5.20 extension zone. For level methodology, see the technical analysis hub.

Bear Case Range + Breakdown Triggers

The bear case ($4.10-$4.45) activates on: a failed breakout with price falling back below $4.45, hawkish FOMC minutes challenging the dovish CPI narrative, BTC rejection below $125K, or broad risk-off rotation. Confirmation requires a daily close below $4.40. Target: $4.20-$4.30 initial, then $4.10 if momentum accelerates. This would signal the CPI breakout was a false move.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Level Zone	Type	Evidence	What Confirms	What Invalidates
$4.50-$4.60	Support 1	Former resistance → new support; breakout retest	Bounce with volume	Break below $4.50
$4.35-$4.45	Support 2	Weekly floor; failed breakout level	Defense on retest	Daily close <$4.40
$4.85-$5.00	Resistance 1	Psychological $5; bull trigger zone	Daily close >$4.90	Rejection = consolidation
$5.15-$5.25	Resistance 2	Extension target; Feb high zone	Follow-through	Fail = retest $5.00
$4.30	Invalidation	Breakout failure confirmed; Feb structure breaks	N/A	Daily close <$4.30

Support Zones (Defense Criteria + Failure Signal)

The $4.50-$4.60 zone is the critical retest level this week—former resistance that must now act as support. A bounce from this zone with volume confirms the breakout was legitimate. The $4.35-$4.45 zone is the deeper support level; breaking this signals a failed breakout. Failure signal: daily close below $4.40 with expanding volume.

Resistance Zones (Reclaim Criteria + Rejection Signal)

The $4.85-$5.00 zone is the bull trigger featuring the psychological $5 level. A confirmed break above (daily close >$4.90 with volume) activates the bull scenario. The $5.15-$5.25 zone is the extension target—this would establish a new February high. Rejection signal: wick above $4.85 followed by close below $4.75 = consolidation continues.

Invalidation Level (Scenario Switch)

A daily close below $4.30 invalidates the base scenario for this week and confirms the CPI breakout as a failed move. If this occurs, shift to the bear scenario as the operating framework—expect retests of $4.10-$4.20 and potential challenges to the February 2026 monthly base case.

Catalysts to Watch This Week

Catalyst	Metric	Threshold	Expected Impact
FOMC Minutes (Wed)	Policy tone; rate path language	Dovish = bullish; Hawkish = bearish	Confirms or challenges CPI dovish narrative
Jobless Claims (Thu)	Weekly claims	>230K = weak labor; <210K = strong	Labor market signal; Fed policy input
BTC Regime	BTC price vs $125K-$130K	>$128K = bullish; <$123K = risk	Drives broad crypto sentiment
ETF Flows	Post-CPI institutional flows	>$150M/wk = strong confirmation	Institutional breakout confirmation
Funding Rate	XRP perp funding	>0.08% = elevated; watch for squeeze	Positioning risk assessment

Macro Calendar (Risk Appetite Drivers)

This week’s primary macro catalyst is the FOMC minutes release on Wednesday (Feb 18). Markets will parse the language for confirmation of the dovish pivot suggested by last week’s CPI. Hawkish pushback in the minutes could challenge the rally narrative. Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday) provides labor market context. This is a key week for confirming February’s bullish shift. For catalyst framework, see the catalysts hub.

Crypto Liquidity Signals (Funding/OI/Vol)

OI expanded with the breakout—new long positions entered post-CPI. Funding rates are moderately positive but not extreme. Short liquidations above $4.55 cleared immediate overhead supply. Watch for funding to rise further if price consolidates without continuation—this creates squeeze risk on any pullback. Key liquidation clusters: longs below $4.30, shorts above $5.10.

XRP-Specific Catalysts (Legal/ETF/Access, Ecosystem)

No major XRP-specific catalysts are scheduled for this week. Monitor for: unexpected Ripple announcements, ETF product developments, regulatory news, and XRPL ecosystem updates. XRP-specific headlines could accelerate the breakout if positive, or trigger profit-taking if negative.

Weekly Monitoring Plan (Non-Advice)

Disclaimer: This is informational content, not financial advice. Use this as a monitoring framework, not trading signals.

Daily Checklist

• Monday (Feb 16): Week 3 open; breakout retest assessment; weekend momentum
• Tuesday (Feb 17): Pre-FOMC positioning; support/resistance tests
• Wednesday (Feb 18): FOMC Minutes release (highest impact); volatility spike expected
• Thursday (Feb 19): Post-FOMC reaction; Jobless Claims; direction confirmation
• Friday (Feb 20): Weekly positioning adjustments; $5 attempt window
• Weekend: Weekly close assessment; scenario probability update for Week 4

If/Then Playbook

• IF XRP holds $4.50 support and respects $4.85 → THEN base case remains active (consolidation above breakout)
• IF XRP breaks above $4.90 with daily close → THEN shift to bull scenario; target $5.00-$5.20
• IF XRP breaks below $4.40 with daily close → THEN shift to bear scenario; failed breakout; target $4.20-$4.30
• IF FOMC minutes are dovish → THEN increase bull scenario probability; watch for $5 breakout attempt
• IF FOMC minutes are hawkish → THEN increase bear scenario probability; watch support closely

Related Forecasts (Internal Routing)

February 2026 Monthly Forecast

This week is the third checkpoint for the February 2026 monthly forecast. The monthly outlook’s bull scenario ($4.80-$6.00) is now in play after last week’s CPI-driven breakout. This week’s action will confirm whether the breakout sustains or fails. A successful week above $4.50 with $5 attempt shifts February firmly to the bull scenario. For evergreen February context, see the February hub.

Next Week Forecast (Week of Feb 23, 2026)

The Week of Feb 23, 2026 XRP forecast will be linked here when published. Next week features PCE inflation (Feb 27) as the major catalyst and the final week of February. For pillar context: XRP price prediction | 2026 year hub | Weekly hub

Frequently Asked Questions

Update Log (In-Post)

Date/Time	Update Notes
Feb 16, 2026	Initial weekly forecast published. Base: $4.45-$4.85. Bull: $4.85-$5.20. Bear: $4.10-$4.45. Post-CPI breakout week.

Post-Week Outcome Summary

Status: Active forecast — this section will be completed after the week ends (Feb 22, 2026).

[To be completed after week-end] This section will document: actual weekly high/low/close vs expected range, which scenario played out, which triggers fired, FOMC minutes reaction, and whether the breakout sustained or failed.