Table of Contents
XRP Weekly Forecast: Week of February 09, 2026
What are the key XRP levels to watch this week?
This week’s key XRP levels are the support zones that must hold to keep the base case intact and the resistance zones that must break to confirm upside. Breakouts above resistance shift probability to the bull case; breaks below support shift it to the bear case.
Forecast Window: February 09–15, 2026 (Week 2 of February)
Published: February 09, 2026
Last Updated: February 09, 2026 (Initial weekly forecast)
Weekly Outlook: XRP enters Week 2 of February 2026 following last week’s consolidation around $4.20. The market regime remains constructive with BTC stable above $122K and risk appetite neutral after the NFP data resolved in-line with expectations. This week’s expected range is $4.05-$4.75, with the base case anticipating continued range trading between $4.10-$4.55. CPI data (Thursday Feb 12) is the week’s primary catalyst—expect volatility around the release. Key focus: whether XRP can break above the $4.50 resistance that capped last week’s rally attempts.
Week of Feb 09, 2026 Scenario Snapshot:
- Base ($4.10-$4.55): Consolidation continues; holds $4.10 support; tests $4.50 resistance; CPI in-line
- Bull ($4.55-$5.00): Break above $4.55 with volume; cool CPI = dovish Fed; BTC >$125K continuation
- Bear ($3.70-$4.10): Break below $4.10; hot CPI = hawkish Fed surprise; risk-off rotation
Key Levels This Week:
- Support 1: $4.15-$4.25 (last week’s range floor; first defense)
- Support 2: $4.00-$4.10 (weekly floor; must hold for base case)
- Resistance 1: $4.50-$4.60 (range high; bull trigger zone)
- Resistance 2: $4.85-$5.00 (extension target; psychological zone)
- Weekly Invalidation: Daily close below $3.95 (base case fails)
Catalyst Radar This Week:
- CPI Inflation (Thu Feb 12): Week’s highest-impact macro catalyst
- Initial Jobless Claims (Thu): Labor market signal alongside CPI
- BTC Regime: Watching $120K support; $125K breakout trigger
- ETF Flow Data: Week 2 institutional allocation patterns
Navigate: February 2026 monthly forecast | Weekly hub | This week hub | Last week (Feb 02)
What Changed Since Last Week (Week of Feb 02 → Feb 09)
| Metric | Week of Feb 02 | Week of Feb 09 | Change |
| Weekly Range | $3.90-$4.70 | $4.05-$4.75 | Shifted up |
| Primary Support | $3.85-$3.95 | $4.00-$4.10 | +$0.15 |
| Primary Resistance | $4.45-$4.55 | $4.50-$4.60 | +$0.05 |
| BTC Regime | $120K-$130K range | $122K stable bias | Stable |
| Funding Rate | Neutral | Slightly positive | Building |
| Key Catalyst | NFP (Feb 6) | CPI (Feb 12) | Different |
Market Regime Changes (Trend, Volatility, Correlation)
Last week’s NFP came in roughly as expected, resulting in muted volatility and range-bound trading. XRP held above $4.00 and made multiple attempts at $4.45-$4.50 resistance without a decisive breakout. The trend bias remains neutral with a slight bullish lean—higher lows continue forming on the daily timeframe. BTC has stabilized around $122K, creating a supportive backdrop. Volatility compressed into the weekend, creating the conditions for this week’s CPI-driven potential expansion.
Liquidity/Leverage Shifts (OI, Funding, Liquidation Risk)
Open interest has built modestly through Week 1, with funding rates turning slightly positive (indicating more long positioning). This is not extreme but bears watching—if funding continues rising without price breakout, squeeze risk increases. Key liquidation clusters: longs below $3.95 (triggering bear cascade), shorts above $4.70 (triggering bull squeeze). For positioning analysis methodology, see the sentiment and liquidity hub.
XRP Weekly Range Forecast (Week of Feb 09, 2026)
| Scenario | Expected Range | Triggers | Confirmation | Invalidation | Probability |
| Base | $4.10-$4.55 | Hold $4.10; test $4.50; CPI in-line | Range trading | Break S/R | ~50% |
| Bull | $4.55-$5.00 | Break $4.55; cool CPI; BTC >$125K | Daily close >$4.60 | Rejection <$4.45 | ~30% |
| Bear | $3.70-$4.10 | Break $4.10; hot CPI; risk-off | Daily close <$4.05 | Reclaim $4.20 | ~20% |
Base Case Range + Assumptions
The base case ($4.10-$4.55) assumes: XRP holds the $4.10 support floor that developed last week, resistance at $4.50-$4.55 continues to cap upside temporarily, BTC remains stable in its $120K-$125K zone, CPI data comes in roughly as expected without major Fed implications, and positioning stays healthy without extreme funding. This is the consolidation scenario—price continues building a base before the next directional move.
Bull Case Range + Breakout Triggers
The bull case ($4.55-$5.00) activates on: a confirmed break above $4.55 with volume, cool CPI data supporting dovish Fed expectations, BTC breaking above $125K and continuing the Q1 rally, or positive XRP-specific headlines. Confirmation requires a daily close above $4.60. Target: $4.85-$5.00 psychological zone. For level methodology, see the technical analysis hub.
Bear Case Range + Breakdown Triggers
The bear case ($3.70-$4.10) activates on: a break below $4.10 with follow-through, hot CPI data (above expectations) supporting hawkish Fed repricing, BTC rejection below $120K, or broad risk-off rotation. Confirmation requires a daily close below $4.05. Target: $3.85-$3.95 initial, then $3.70 if momentum accelerates.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
| Level Zone | Type | Evidence | What Confirms | What Invalidates |
| $4.15-$4.25 | Support 1 | Last week’s range floor; multiple bounces | Bounce with volume | Break below $4.15 |
| $4.00-$4.10 | Support 2 | Weekly floor; Feb 2026 structure base | Defense on retest | Daily close <$4.05 |
| $4.50-$4.60 | Resistance 1 | Range high; capped last week’s rallies | Daily close >$4.60 | Rejection = range |
| $4.85-$5.00 | Resistance 2 | Extension target; psychological $5 | Follow-through | Fail = retest $4.50 |
| $3.95 | Invalidation | Base scenario fails; Feb structure breaks | N/A | Daily close <$3.95 |
Support Zones (Defense Criteria + Failure Signal)
The $4.15-$4.25 zone is the first line of defense this week—last week’s range floor where multiple bounces occurred. A bounce from this zone with volume keeps the base case intact. The $4.00-$4.10 zone is the critical weekly floor and the Feb 2026 structure base—if this breaks, the bear scenario activates. Failure signal: daily close below $4.05 with expanding volume.
Resistance Zones (Reclaim Criteria + Rejection Signal)
The $4.50-$4.60 zone is the bull trigger—this level capped last week’s rally attempts. A confirmed break above (daily close >$4.60 with volume) activates the bull scenario. The $4.85-$5.00 zone is the extension target featuring the psychological $5 level. Rejection signal: wick above $4.55 followed by close below $4.45 = range scenario persists.
Invalidation Level (Scenario Switch)
A daily close below $3.95 invalidates the base scenario for this week. If this occurs, shift to the bear scenario as the operating framework—expect tests of $3.80-$3.85, potentially $3.70 if momentum accelerates. This would also raise concerns about the February 2026 monthly base case.
Catalysts to Watch This Week
| Catalyst | Metric | Threshold | Expected Impact |
| CPI (Thu Feb 12) | Core CPI vs estimate | >0.4% m/m = hot; <0.2% = cool | Hot = bearish (hawkish Fed); Cool = bullish |
| Jobless Claims (Thu) | Weekly claims | >230K = weak labor; <210K = strong | Weak = dovish bias; Strong = neutral |
| BTC Regime | BTC price vs $120K-$125K | >$125K = bullish; <$118K = risk | Drives broad crypto sentiment |
| ETF Flows | Weekly net flows | >$100M/wk = bullish | Week 2 allocation confirmation |
| Funding Rate | XRP perp funding | >0.05% = elevated long bias | Squeeze risk if rising without breakout |
Macro Calendar (Risk Appetite Drivers)
This week’s primary macro catalyst is the CPI inflation report on Thursday (Feb 12). A hot print (Core CPI >0.4% m/m) would support hawkish Fed repricing, pressuring risk assets. A cool print (<0.2% m/m) would support dovish expectations, benefiting crypto. Initial Jobless Claims release alongside CPI provides additional labor market context. This is a crucial week for February’s overall direction. For catalyst framework, see the catalysts hub.
Crypto Liquidity Signals (Funding/OI/Vol)
Funding rates have turned slightly positive entering Week 2—more longs are entering the market. This isn’t extreme yet, but if funding continues rising without a price breakout, it creates conditions for a long squeeze on any downside move. ETF flow data will reveal whether Week 1’s institutional patterns continue. Key liquidation clusters: longs below $3.95, shorts above $4.70.
XRP-Specific Catalysts (Legal/ETF/Access, Ecosystem)
No major XRP-specific catalysts are scheduled for this week. Monitor for: unexpected Ripple announcements, ETF product updates, regulatory developments, and XRPL ecosystem news. XRP-specific headlines can override broader market direction when they occur.
Weekly Monitoring Plan (Non-Advice)
Disclaimer: This is informational content, not financial advice. Use this as a monitoring framework, not trading signals.
Daily Checklist
- Monday (Feb 9): Week 2 open; position adjustments; weekend momentum assessment
- Tuesday (Feb 10): Early-week direction; pre-CPI positioning begins
- Wednesday (Feb 11): Pre-CPI volatility compression likely; final positioning
- Thursday (Feb 12): CPI release (highest impact); volatility spike expected; Claims data
- Friday (Feb 13): Post-CPI reaction analysis; weekly positioning adjustments
- Weekend: Weekly close assessment; scenario probability update for Week 3
If/Then Playbook
- IF XRP holds $4.10-$4.15 and respects $4.55 → THEN base case remains active (range trading)
- IF XRP breaks above $4.60 with daily close → THEN shift to bull scenario; target $4.85-$5.00
- IF XRP breaks below $4.05 with daily close → THEN shift to bear scenario; expect test of $3.85-$3.95
- IF CPI comes in hot (>0.4% Core m/m) → THEN increase bear scenario probability; watch support closely
- IF CPI comes in cool (<0.2% Core m/m) → THEN increase bull scenario probability; watch for breakout attempt
Related Forecasts (Internal Routing)
February 2026 Monthly Forecast
This week is the second checkpoint for the February 2026 monthly forecast. The monthly outlook projects a base range of $3.80-$4.80. Week 1 confirmed the monthly base case (consolidation maintained). This week’s CPI will help determine whether the monthly outlook shifts toward the bull scenario (breakout above $4.55-$4.60) or stays range-bound. For evergreen February context, see the February hub.
Next Week Forecast (Week of Feb 16, 2026)
The Week of Feb 16, 2026 XRP forecast will be linked here when published. Next week features FOMC minutes (Feb 18) as the major catalyst. For pillar context: XRP price prediction pillar | 2026 year hub | Weekly hub
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the XRP weekly forecast for the week of Feb 09, 2026?
This forecast provides scenario-based ranges for the week: Base $4.10-$4.55 (~50%), Bull $4.55-$5.00 (~30%), Bear $3.70-$4.10 (~20%). It also records what changed since last week so readers can track whether the February 2026 monthly scenario is being confirmed or invalidated.
What are the key support and resistance levels for XRP this week?
Support: $4.15-$4.25 (first defense), $4.00-$4.10 (weekly floor). Resistance: $4.50-$4.60 (bull trigger), $4.85-$5.00 (extension). Invalidation: daily close below $3.95.
What would invalidate the base scenario this week?
A daily close below $3.95 invalidates the base scenario. When this occurs, shift to the bear scenario as the operating framework and expect tests of $3.80-$3.85. This would also raise concerns about the February 2026 monthly base case.
Which catalysts can move XRP the most this week?
CPI Inflation (Thursday Feb 12) is the week’s highest-impact catalyst. Hot data (>0.4% Core m/m) is bearish; cool data (<0.2% Core m/m) is bullish. Also watch: Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday), BTC regime around $120K-$125K, and ETF flow data.
How do funding rates and open interest affect the weekly outlook?
Funding has turned slightly positive entering Week 2, indicating more long positioning. If funding continues rising without price breakout, it creates conditions for a long squeeze on downside moves. Watch liquidation clusters below $3.95 (longs) and above $4.70 (shorts).
How should I update the forecast if XRP breaks a key level?
Use if/then rules: Break above $4.60 with daily close → shift to bull scenario, target $4.85-$5.00. Break below $4.05 with daily close → shift to bear scenario, target $3.85-$3.95. Update scenario weights and record changes in the update log.
Where does this week fit into the February 2026 monthly forecast?
This is Week 2 of February 2026. Week 1 confirmed the monthly base case (consolidation maintained). This week’s CPI is crucial for determining whether February shifts toward the bull scenario or stays range-bound.
Where can I find the next week’s XRP forecast?
Use the Weekly Forecast Hub and the ‘Related Forecasts’ section above. Next week’s post (Week of Feb 16, 2026) will be linked as soon as it’s published. For chronological navigation, each weekly post links to the previous and next weeks.
Update Log (In-Post)
| Date/Time | Update Notes |
| Feb 09, 2026 | Initial weekly forecast published. Base: $4.10-$4.55. Bull: $4.55-$5.00. Bear: $3.70-$4.10. |
Post-Week Outcome Summary
Status: Active forecast — this section will be completed after the week ends (Feb 15, 2026).
[To be completed after week-end] This section will document: actual weekly high/low/close vs expected range, which scenario played out, which triggers fired, CPI reaction, and lessons for future weekly forecasts.
Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
