XRP Weekly Forecast: Week of January 26, 2026

What is XRP price prediction for this week?

This week’s XRP outlook is best modeled as ranges and scenarios. This update provides a weekly forecast band with key support/resistance zones and clear confirmation/invalidation triggers, plus catalysts that can switch scenarios.

Forecast Window: January 26 – February 1, 2026 (Monday–Sunday UTC)

Last Updated: January 26, 2026, 08:00 UTC

Weekly Outlook Summary:

• Base Range: $2.40 – $2.75 (post-breakout consolidation)
• Bull Range: $2.80 – $3.10 (if continuation confirms)
• Bear Range: $2.15 – $2.35 (if breakout fails)
• Volatility Expansion: $2.00 – $3.25 (if FOMC triggers regime shift)

Key Zones This Week:

• Primary Support: $2.35 – $2.40 zone (breakout retest level)
• Primary Resistance: $2.75 – $2.80 zone (continuation trigger)
• Weekly Invalidation: Daily close below $2.25

Top Catalysts This Week:

• FOMC Meeting (Wed Jan 28-29) – rate decision + Powell presser
• US GDP (Thu Jan 29) – growth data; risk sentiment driver
• Core PCE (Fri Jan 30) – Fed’s preferred inflation gauge
• BTC volatility regime – testing $102K resistance post-breakout
• XRP ETF decision window – potential SEC response timeline
• Stablecoin inflows – elevated USDT/USDC mints signaling demand

Scenario Triggers:

Scenario	Trigger	Confirmation	Invalidation
Base	Hold $2.35-$2.40 support	Consolidation; no break	Break below $2.35 or above $2.80
Bull	Break above $2.80	4H close + volume expansion	Rejection back below $2.70
Bear	Break below $2.35	4H close below; volume spike	Reclaim $2.40 with strength
Vol Expansion	FOMC surprise + BTC break	Range exceeds 20% intraday	Volatility compresses <10%

Navigate: This week XRP outlook | Next week scenarios | Methodology confirmation rules | Technical analysis hub

Weekly Forecast at a Glance (Jan 26 – Feb 1, 2026)

Scenario	Range	Drivers	Trigger	Confirmation	Invalidation
Base	$2.40-$2.75	Post-breakout consolidation; FOMC neutral	Hold support	Range bound	Break S/R
Bull	$2.80-$3.10	FOMC dovish; BTC continuation; ETF news	Break $2.80	4H close + vol	Fail at $2.80
Bear	$2.15-$2.35	FOMC hawkish; BTC rejection; risk-off	Break $2.35	4H close + vol	Reclaim $2.40
Vol Expansion	$2.00-$3.25	FOMC surprise; major BTC move; cascade	Surprise event	>20% daily range	Vol compresses

Base Scenario (Most Likely Path)

The base scenario ($2.40-$2.75) represents post-breakout consolidation. After last week’s breakout above $2.60, XRP is expected to consolidate gains while holding the $2.35-$2.40 retest zone. This path assumes a neutral FOMC outcome, stable BTC regime, and no major XRP-specific surprises. Probability: ~45%.

Bull Scenario (Breakout + Continuation)

The bull scenario ($2.80-$3.10) activates on a confirmed break above $2.80 with volume. Drivers include a dovish FOMC (pause or cut signals), BTC strength above $105K, positive XRP ETF news, or strong stablecoin inflows. Confirmation requires a 4H close above $2.80. Probability: ~30%.

Bear Scenario (Breakdown + Risk-Off)

The bear scenario ($2.15-$2.35) activates on a confirmed break below $2.35—a failed breakout retest. Drivers include a hawkish FOMC surprise, BTC rejection at $102K, or broader risk-off (weak GDP, hot PCE). Confirmation requires a 4H close below $2.35 with volume. Probability: ~15%.

Volatility Expansion Scenario (Wide-Range Week)

The volatility expansion scenario ($2.00-$3.25) activates if FOMC delivers a major surprise combined with a BTC breakout/breakdown. Given three weeks of compression followed by last week’s breakout, volatility is elevated. Watch for >20% daily ranges as confirmation. Probability: ~10%.

Key Levels for the Week (Support, Resistance, Invalidation)

Zone	Type	Why It Matters	Confirms	Risk Signal
$2.35-$2.40	Support	Breakout retest zone; former resistance	Bounce with vol	Break = failed breakout
$2.25	Invalidation	Daily close below = weekly structure flip	N/A	Full bear scenario
$2.75-$2.80	Resistance	Range high; continuation trigger zone	Break + close	Rejection = range
$3.00-$3.10	Extension	Bull target if $2.80 clears with strength	Follow-through	Fail = retest range

Primary Support Zone(s) + What Confirms Defense

The $2.35-$2.40 zone is the critical breakout retest level. This former resistance (now support) marks the key test for the breakout. A bounce from this zone with volume confirms the base scenario and validates the breakout structure. For detailed level analysis, see the technical analysis hub.

Primary Resistance Zone(s) + What Confirms Breakout

The $2.75-$2.80 zone is the continuation trigger. A confirmed break above (4H close with volume expansion) would trigger the bull scenario targeting $3.00-$3.10. Watch for rejection candles as an early signal of failed continuation attempts.

Weekly Invalidation and Scenario Switch Rules

A daily close below $2.25 invalidates the base weekly scenario and signals a failed breakout. This would confirm the bear scenario with targets at $2.15-$2.20. The volatility expansion scenario becomes more likely if invalidation occurs with >20% daily range on FOMC day.

What Changed Since Last Week? (Delta)

Key Changes (Week of Jan 19 → Week of Jan 26):

• Structure: BREAKOUT confirmed—$2.60 resistance broken with volume
• Support: Lifted from $2.20-$2.25 to $2.35-$2.40 (breakout retest)
• Volatility: Expanded from 36% to 52% (breakout volatility)
• Funding: Rose to +0.025% (elevated long positioning)
• Open Interest: Surged 18% to $1.49B; leverage at local highs
• BTC Regime: Broke $100K; now testing $102K resistance
• Stablecoin Flows: Elevated mints (+$2.1B week) indicating demand
• Catalysts: FOMC + macro data week replaces political event risk

Structure Changes (Levels Held/Broke)

Major structural shift: XRP broke above the $2.55-$2.60 resistance that had capped price for three weeks. The breakout occurred mid-week with strong volume, validating the bull scenario from the Jan 19 forecast. Former resistance at $2.55-$2.60 now becomes critical support for the retest.

Positioning Changes (Funding/OI/Liquidations)

Positioning has become notably crowded. Open interest surged 18% to $1.49B—highest since the November rally. Funding rose to +0.025%, indicating elevated long positioning. This creates squeeze risk if the breakout fails. For detailed positioning analysis, see the sentiment and liquidity hub.

Catalyst Changes (New Risks/Resolved Risks)

Resolved: Inauguration week passed with positive crypto policy signals (risk-on). New this week: Heavy macro calendar—FOMC (Wed), GDP (Thu), PCE (Fri). This is the most significant macro week in months. FOMC outcome will likely determine whether the breakout extends or fails. For all catalysts, see the XRP catalysts hub.

Catalysts Calendar (This Week)

Date	Event	Impact Channel	What Confirms Impact
Wed Jan 28-29	FOMC Decision + Powell	Rate expectations; risk sentiment	Dovish = risk-on; Hawkish = risk-off
Thu Jan 29	US Q4 GDP (Advance)	Growth sentiment; recession fears	Strong = support rally
Fri Jan 30	Core PCE Inflation	Fed’s preferred gauge; rate path	Cool = risk-on; Hot = risk-off
Ongoing	XRP ETF Updates	Headline risk; sentiment	Volume spike on news
Ongoing	BTC Volatility	Market regime; correlation	BTC $105K = continuation signal

Macro Calendar and Risk Windows

FOMC is the week’s dominant event. A dovish outcome (pause + soft forward guidance) supports risk-on and the bull scenario. A hawkish surprise (rate hike signal or QT acceleration) would likely trigger risk-off and test the breakout. Thursday GDP and Friday PCE provide secondary confirmation or contradiction of the FOMC narrative.

Crypto Regime Risks (BTC Volatility, Liquidity, Stablecoin Flows)

BTC broke $100K last week and is testing $102K resistance. A continuation above $105K would support XRP’s bull scenario. Rejection at $102K and retreat below $98K would pressure XRP. Stablecoin inflows are elevated (+$2.1B weekly mints), suggesting capital is entering the market—supportive for the breakout.

XRP-Specific Headlines (Legal/ETF/Ripple)

XRP ETF decision timeline may produce headlines this week. Pro-crypto policy signals from the new administration create a favorable backdrop. Ripple adoption metrics remain positive. For legal context, see the SEC lawsuit impact hub. For ETF analysis, see the XRP ETF hub.

Signals Dashboard (Definitions + Current Values)

Signal Dashboard (as of Jan 26, 2026 08:00 UTC):

Signal	Current Value	Interpretation
Volatility (7d)	52%	Elevated post-breakout; expect wide ranges
Funding Rate	+0.025%	Elevated; crowded long positioning
Open Interest	$1.49B (+18% WoW)	High leverage; squeeze risk if support fails
Liquidation Risk	Elevated	Long clusters at $2.30; short clusters at $2.85
Liquidity Depth	Above average	Good absorption; breakout validation strong

Volatility Regime and Expected Range Width

7-day realized volatility has expanded to 52% following the breakout—up from 36% last week. Elevated volatility typically persists for 1-2 weeks post-breakout. With FOMC this week, expect volatility to remain high. Base range width is ~15%; prepare for potential 20%+ ranges if FOMC surprises.

Liquidity Depth/Spreads

Order book depth remains above average despite the breakout. Spreads are tight on major venues. The strong liquidity profile validated the breakout—price moved with good absorption rather than thin book spikes. This supports continuation over failure.

Funding Rate / Open Interest / Liquidation Risk

Funding at +0.025% is elevated—the highest since November. Open interest surged 18% to $1.49B. Long liquidation clusters at $2.30; short clusters at $2.85. This crowded positioning creates two-way risk: a failed breakout could trigger long cascades; continuation above $2.80 could trigger short squeezes.

How to Use This Weekly Forecast (Framework)

Confirmation vs Invalidation (Examples)

Post-breakout scenarios require different triggers:

• Base confirms: Price holds $2.35-$2.40 and respects $2.75-$2.80 (consolidation)
• Bull confirms: 4H close above $2.80 with volume; targets $3.00-$3.10
• Bear confirms: 4H close below $2.35 with volume; failed breakout signal
• Vol expansion confirms: Daily range exceeds 20% on FOMC; prepare for extreme moves

Range Management (When to Widen/Tighten)

Widen expected ranges when: (1) FOMC delivers a surprise (either direction), (2) BTC breaks $105K resistance or loses $98K support, (3) daily volatility exceeds 20%. Tighten ranges if: FOMC is neutral and BTC consolidates—base scenario probability increases.

Related Reading

This Week / Next Week / Next Month

XRP this week outlook | XRP next week scenarios | XRP next month forecast

Methodology / Technical Analysis / Sentiment & Liquidity

Methodology confirmation rules | Technical analysis hub | Sentiment and liquidity analysis | XRP price prediction

Frequently Asked Questions