Bitcoin’s recent dance above the $100,000 mark has left traders in a state of anxiety, pondering whether the crypto bull run has finally hit a wall. Adam Bakay, a respected systematic trader, shared his insights on June 22, suggesting that the situation is anything but straightforward. Bakay, who has been closely monitoring the market’s technical underpinnings, remains cautiously optimistic, though he acknowledges the looming geopolitical uncertainties that could sway the market’s trajectory. For more on how geopolitical events are impacting Bitcoin, see Bitcoin Rebounds as Markets Price in ‘Short-Lived’ Iran Conflict.
Bitcoin’s Path: A Technical Maze
Bakay’s analysis paints a picture of a market still technically in an uptrend, with key indicators like the 365-day rolling VWAP holding firm despite April’s pullback. However, the failure to eclipse the all-time highs of 2021 has him on edge. Notably, institutional players like BlackRock are accumulating Bitcoin, currently holding about 3.5% of its total supply. This divergence—between robust institutional interest and a market struggling to soar higher—has prompted Bakay to adopt a more defensive stance. “This is why I have been very defensive and kept most of my trades short-term,” he admitted.
Two scenarios stand out in Bakay’s trading blueprint: a potential reclaim of the $100,000 support zone, contingent upon stability in the Middle East, or a dip into the $97,000–$95,000 range, where formidable technical support awaits. Despite this cautious outlook, Bakay isn’t shorting the market. “I’m not considering any short trades due to my current positioning,” he emphasized, noting the initial signs of spot bid interest since April’s lows. As explored in our recent coverage of Bitcoin analysts’ expectations for new BTC price volatility, market dynamics continue to evolve rapidly.
Meanwhile, the options market is sending subtle warnings. The 25-delta risk reversal skew is tilting negative, sitting at around -5, which isn’t yet alarming but suggests caution.
Ethereum’s Struggle: A Tale of Missed Opportunities
Bakay’s commentary on Ethereum is blunt. “ETH almost had its moment, but of course had to become a disappointment,” he remarked, pointing to the viral “DeFi Summer 2025” narrative that fizzled out. “People are getting too horny, and the market made sure to punish them,” he quipped, referencing his own tweet from earlier.
The technical setup for Ethereum is uninspiring, with Bakay highlighting the risk of price retracing during significant market moves. The next robust support lies near $1,800, though Ethereum currently hovers at a crucial support confluence—the 90-day rolling VWAP and a pivotal level. Like Bitcoin, Ethereum’s short-term fate is intertwined with developments in the Middle East.
Bakay notes an oversold environment in Ethereum’s positioning, with high volatility in ETH options prompting traders to lean on spreads rather than outright directional bets. “Positioning is now very clearly pointing towards the possible upside reversal in both perpetual and spot,” he observed.
Altcoins and the ETF Trade
Altcoins, on the other hand, remain in the doldrums. Bakay wryly noted, “Altcoins have not been having fun for quite a while,” observing that any promising signs are quickly dashed. The anticipated rotation from Bitcoin to altcoins hasn’t materialized, with the momentum shifting towards crypto-related equities that align with the ETF-driven macro trade.
Even stalwarts like Solana are faltering. “SOL has almost retraced the entire rally from April,” Bakay warned, pinpointing $100 as a critical level. “There is not much of a technical support sub-$100,” he cautioned, adding that he’d consider bidding around that round number if conditions worsen.
Bakay briefly touched on newer altcoins like Hype and Fartcoin. “Fartcoin would become attractive if it could reclaim the $1 or $0.50 area. Hype could find a bounce sub-$30,” he mused.
Navigating an Uncertain Future
As Bakay wrapped up his analysis, his pragmatism shone through. “We are not in easy market conditions, with a lot of geopolitical uncertainty, and markets can be significantly affected by a single news release,” he noted. While he believes the market might be “getting too short at the moment,” he’s keenly aware of the potential for a multi-month correction.
“I don’t think there is a need to be a hero and try to catch a falling knife,” he concluded. “I would much rather wait for some positive news and signs of lower timeframe reversals.” Bakay’s message is clear: this isn’t the time for reckless optimism. It’s a moment for prudence, tight risk management, and an appreciation for volatility—especially when the bullish narrative appears to be losing steam.
At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $101,847, underscoring the market’s current state of flux. As traders grapple with these dynamics, Bakay’s insights offer a beacon of cautious wisdom in an unpredictable landscape.
Source
This article is based on: Crypto Bull Run Over? Here’s What A Top Trader Just Said
Further Reading
Deepen your understanding with these related articles:
- Bitcoin Remains Defiant Amid Escalating Middle East Conflict and Trade War Fears
- Bitcoin Quickly Plunges Below $103K, With Volatility Burst Spurring $450M in Crypto Liquidations
- Who’s Selling Bitcoin Above $100K and Holding Back the Price Rally?
Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
