In the ever-volatile world of cryptocurrency, Stellar’s native token, XLM, is capturing headlines once again. An intriguing market-cap–based Elliott Wave analysis by independent chartist Quantum Ascend suggests that XLM is on the verge of a significant surge. The prediction hints at a potential 400% increase in XLM’s value, sparking curiosity and anticipation among investors.
A Fifth-Wave Surge?
Quantum Ascend, a well-known figure in the crypto analysis community, recently shared a video outlining his optimistic forecast for XLM. Published on September 10, the analysis hinges on Elliott Wave theory, a popular approach among technical analysts. Instead of focusing on the dollar price, Quantum Ascend prefers to model XLM’s market cap due to the token’s unique supply dynamics, which have occasionally distorted its spot-price returns.
According to the analyst, Stellar’s market cap chart reflects a more accurate trajectory of potential growth. He notes that while the USD price has increased by 12,000%, the market cap has surged by 52,000%, indicating inflationary pressures on the asset. By using the market cap chart, Quantum Ascend aims to provide a clearer picture of where XLM might be headed.
Mapping the Path Forward
Quantum Ascend traces the journey of XLM from a cycle dating back to May 2016. He identifies five waves culminating in a peak in January 2018, followed by a downturn into March 2020, and a subsequent motive structure that has already seen waves one through four. He believes wave four concluded in April of this year and highlights an “88% week” in July, which he interprets as a transition into the terminal wave.
The crux of his analysis lies in overlapping Fibonacci projections. By measuring the third-to-fourth-wave drawdown and the broader 2021 range, Quantum Ascend finds confluence near the 3.618 extension. This places XLM’s fully diluted valuation between $60 billion and $71 billion. His primary target is around $60 billion, with a potential peak at $71 billion.
Translating Market Cap to Price
Translating these market cap figures into potential price movements, Quantum Ascend predicts a primary price objective of approximately $1.96 per XLM, with a more aggressive target near $2.28. As of September 11, 2025, XLM is trading at around $0.386, with a market cap near $12.28 billion, according to CoinMarketCap. A move to the $60 billion target implies a nearly 4.9x appreciation from today’s levels, though the exact price will depend on circulating-supply conditions at the time.
Supply Dynamics and Historical Context
A crucial factor in Quantum Ascend’s market-cap emphasis is XLM’s supply mechanics. In November 2019, the Stellar Development Foundation (SDF) executed a significant token burn, reducing the total XLM supply to approximately 50 billion. Since then, no new lumens have been created at the protocol level, though the circulating supply continues to evolve as SDF distributes its treasury holdings. This explains the divergence between long-term market-cap curves and simple price charts, especially when comparing different epochs.
If Quantum Ascend’s primary target of $1.96 is realized, XLM would set a new all-time high, surpassing its previous peak of $0.938 on January 4, 2018. This milestone is significant in Elliott Wave theory, as structurally new highs often confirm the completion of a cycle’s terminal wave. However, the analyst emphasizes that confirmation depends more on the unfolding internal wave structure than on a single price point.
The Bigger Picture
While Quantum Ascend’s analysis offers an enticing outlook for XLM, it’s important to remember that Elliott Wave counting and Fibonacci confluence are interpretive frameworks, not guarantees. Various factors, such as macro liquidity, Bitcoin dominance, and large holders’ issuance and distribution strategies, can influence trajectories and timing.
Nonetheless, for those who believe in cycle symmetry, Quantum Ascend’s case for a high-timeframe fifth wave for XLM is compelling. With a projected market cap of around $60 billion, equating to a 400% rally from current levels, investors are left pondering whether XLM is truly about to “moon.”
As the crypto community watches closely, the question remains: will Stellar’s XLM fulfill this ambitious forecast, or will unforeseen market dynamics alter its path? Only time will tell, but for now, Quantum Ascend’s analysis has certainly reignited interest in this promising digital asset.
Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
