Strategy Inc. has posted a second consecutive quarterly profit in Q3 2025, buoyed by the rising price of Bitcoin (BTC). This development could potentially pave the way for the company’s inclusion in the prestigious S&P 500 index. However, the journey to such a milestone is complex and multifaceted, with both opportunities and hurdles along the way.
Bitcoin’s Role in Strategy’s Success
The cryptocurrency market has been known for its volatility, yet it can offer substantial rewards for those who navigate it wisely. For Strategy, this has been particularly true. Over the past quarter, the price of Bitcoin rose from approximately $107,000 to $114,000, a movement that significantly contributed to Strategy’s financial performance. According to Jeff Walton, Chief Risk Officer at Strive, the company earned about $2.9 billion, or $10 per share, thanks to this uptick in Bitcoin’s valuation.
When examining the broader financial picture, Strategy’s earnings over the past four quarters are projected to be about $22.80 per share. This figure includes positive earnings per share (EPS) in Q2 and Q3 2025, which stand at $32.6 and $10.1, respectively, offsetting negative earnings from Q4 2024 and Q1 2025. These results underscore the importance of Bitcoin in Strategy’s portfolio, highlighting both the potential and the perils of relying on cryptocurrency market trends.
Eyeing the S&P 500
One of the most exciting prospects for Strategy is the potential inclusion in the S&P 500, an index that represents the most influential companies in the U.S. stock market. While Strategy meets several key criteria for inclusion—such as a positive latest quarter, more than 50% public float, and an average daily trading volume above 250,000 shares—the decision ultimately rests with the S&P 500 committee. This body holds the discretion to decide which companies are added, based on a comprehensive evaluation of each candidate.
The upcoming S&P 500 rebalancing, scheduled to take effect after the market closes on December 19, 2025, has many investors speculating about Strategy’s chances. Although meeting the inclusion criteria is an achievement in itself, there’s no guarantee that Strategy will be selected. The committee often weighs multiple factors, including market stability, financial health, and strategic growth potential, before making a decision.
Dividend Strategy and Market Movements
Beyond the allure of the S&P 500, Strategy has been making moves to enhance shareholder value. The company recently increased its dividend rate on its perpetual preferred stock, STRC, from 10% to 10.25%. This decision reflects Strategy’s commitment to returning value to its investors and maintaining confidence in its financial strategies.
The increased dividend, set to be paid on October 31, 2025, is calculated using the five-day volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of STRC prior to the final trading day of each month. With STRC currently priced between $95 and $98.99, this 25 basis point increase is a clear signal of Strategy’s intent to align STRC closer to its par value of $100.
In parallel, Strategy’s shares have experienced a 2.9% rise in premarket trading, coinciding with a 3% increase in the price of Bitcoin, now valued at $116,700. This simultaneous rise in both Strategy’s stock and Bitcoin prices highlights the interconnectedness of cryptocurrency markets and traditional equity markets.
A Balanced Outlook
While the current financial indicators are promising for Strategy, it’s crucial to consider the inherent risks and uncertainties of the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin’s notorious volatility can lead to significant swings in Strategy’s financial performance, creating a double-edged sword for the company and its investors.
Additionally, while Strategy’s potential inclusion in the S&P 500 would mark a significant achievement, it’s important to approach this possibility with measured optimism. As the S&P 500 committee’s decisions are not solely based on meeting quantitative criteria, Strategy must continue to demonstrate sustained growth and stability.
Looking ahead, Strategy’s approach to managing its cryptocurrency assets, its dividend strategies, and its ability to maintain investor confidence will be pivotal in shaping its future. Whether it secures a spot in the S&P 500 or not, Strategy’s recent performance underscores the dynamic nature of the cryptocurrency market and its potential to drive substantial corporate growth.
In a landscape where digital currencies and traditional finance increasingly intersect, Strategy’s journey serves as a compelling example of navigating these complex waters. As the company continues to adapt and strategize, all eyes will be on its next moves and their impact on its standing in both the crypto and traditional financial sectors.
Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
