In a twist that seems to defy expectations, Polymarket bettors are casting doubt on U.S. President Donald Trump’s ability to unseat Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell or Fed Governor Lisa Cook this year. Despite Trump’s bold moves to challenge the central bank’s autonomy, the prevailing sentiment among investors appears to lean toward the status quo remaining intact—at least for now.
Betting on Stability
Trump’s latest efforts to remove Powell from his position seem to be floundering, with Polymarket odds placing Powell’s ouster at a mere 10% for 2025. Investors are signaling that despite the President’s ambitions, the Fed’s independence may prove more resilient than anticipated. Powell’s term is set to expire in May 2026, and the current betting odds suggest that Trump’s influence might not be strong enough to force an early departure. As explored in Bitcoin To $15 Million Possible Once Powell Is Out, Says Arthur Hayes, some analysts believe that Powell’s removal could have significant implications for bitcoin’s future valuation.
Meanwhile, the situation surrounding Fed Governor Lisa Cook is slightly more precarious. Trump has accused Cook of mortgage fraud, making her the first sitting governor to face such a dismissal threat from a President. Yet, on Polymarket, the probability of her removal by the end of the year stands at 27%. Cook’s steadfast refusal to resign—arguing that the grounds for her dismissal are invalid—adds another layer of complexity to this political drama.
Historical Echoes and Market Implications
This is far from the first instance of presidential pressure on the Federal Reserve. History books recount Harry Truman pushing out Chairman Thomas McCabe for wartime debt financing in 1951, Lyndon Johnson’s infamous clashes with William McChesney Martin over interest rates amid the Vietnam War, and Richard Nixon’s heavy-handed influence on Arthur Burns—events that some economists link to the inflationary spiral of the 1970s.
The Cato Institute, in an October 2024 analysis, pointed out that political interference with the Fed is more common than often acknowledged. A 2013 study by Thomas F. Cargill and Gerald P. O’Driscoll Jr. even goes so far as to claim that Federal Reserve independence is frequently a facade, with both major U.S. political parties intervening when it suited their agendas.
If Trump were to succeed in removing Powell, it would undoubtedly stir controversy. Yet, some market observers speculate it could herald a shift towards looser monetary policy, potentially benefiting risk assets like bitcoin. A Fed more aligned with the White House might cut interest rates more aggressively, weaken the U.S. dollar, and thus create a tailwind for digital assets. For bitcoin enthusiasts, such a scenario underscores one of their core beliefs: fiat systems are inherently political, whereas bitcoin remains outside these pressures. This sentiment is echoed in All Eyes on Powell as Bitcoin Holds Below $113K: Crypto Daybook Americas, where the potential impact of Powell’s policy decisions on bitcoin’s price is analyzed.
Crypto Market Reactions
Despite the political upheaval, the markets have barely flinched. Bitcoin inched up by just 0.3% following the news, and remains down 2.6% on the day, according to CoinDesk market data. Meanwhile, the CoinDesk 20 index, which tracks the performance of the largest crypto assets, continues to trade below 4,000, marking a 5.3% drop by mid-day Hong Kong time.
This muted response raises questions. Is the market’s nonchalance a sign of skepticism toward Trump’s ability to effect change at the Fed? If Powell’s or Cook’s positions were indeed jeopardized, it might signal a broader shift toward easier monetary conditions—something that could, theoretically, bolster bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge against fiat instability.
For now, the betting markets and crypto investors seem to be in agreement: Trump’s attempts to reshape the Federal Reserve are more bark than bite. However, as history often demonstrates, political landscapes can shift rapidly, and with them, market narratives. As the year unfolds, the crypto world will be watching closely, ready to adjust to any seismic shifts that might arise from Washington’s corridors of power.
Source
This article is based on: Polymarket Bettors Doubt Trump Can Topple Jerome Powell or Lisa Cook This Year
Further Reading
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Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
