A year ago, the cryptocurrency landscape was shaken by the unwinding of the yen carry trade. As Japan pivoted towards a tighter monetary policy, driving up bond yields, the appeal of borrowing in the yen to invest in higher-yielding assets rapidly diminished. This strategic shift triggered a significant capital flight from risk assets, sending Bitcoin (BTC) plummeting nearly 30% to a precarious $49,000. Fast forward to today, and Bitcoin has not only recovered but soared—now up over 130% from its nadir.
The Year Bitcoin Bounced Back
The cryptocurrency rebound wasn’t an isolated incident. Traditional markets also basked in the afterglow of recovery, with the S&P 500 climbing a solid 24% and gold appreciating by a notable 40%. This upward trajectory underscores a dual appetite for both risk and defensive assets. Meanwhile, the dollar index (DXY) slipped to just under 100 from 103, as long-dated U.S. bond yields surged—with the 10-year yield edging up to 4.2% from 3.7%, and the 30-year ticking up to 4.8% from 4.0%. And it wasn’t just a U.S. phenomenon; the U.K.’s 30-year yield rose to 5.3% from 4.3%, while Japan’s leaped to over 3% from 1.9%.
“Bitcoin’s resurgence has been nothing short of remarkable,” notes crypto analyst Mia Zhang. “The market has seemingly shrugged off last year’s jitters, with recent gains reflecting renewed investor confidence.” As explored in our recent coverage of Bitcoin’s volatility trends, such low volatility periods have historically preceded significant price rallies.
Long-Term Holders Steady the Ship
Interestingly, despite the turbulence, long-term Bitcoin holders have remained steadfast, gradually increasing their share of supply. Glassnode’s HODLWaves chart provides a visual narrative of this trend: the 7-to-10-year cohort now controls over 8% of the supply, a significant rise from last year’s 4%. The 6 to 12-month holders also saw an uptick, jumping from 8% to 15%. This behavior suggests that while new investors are entering the fray, seasoned holders maintain a strong belief in Bitcoin’s long-term potential.
Glassnode’s data paints a picture of a market where long-term conviction is rising, even as more recent buyers—those holding coins for less than three months—appear to be entering at higher prices. “There’s a palpable sense of optimism among long-term holders,” says digital economist Raj Patel. “Even as new players enter, those who’ve been in the game for years are doubling down.” This aligns with analyses suggesting a potential new Bitcoin price rally, driven by macroeconomic factors like M2 money supply.
Looking Ahead: Uncertainties and Opportunities
The question now is whether Bitcoin’s momentum can be sustained in the face of evolving market dynamics. Traditional financial markets continue to react to central banks’ policy shifts, and the crypto realm is not immune to these broader economic forces. As interest rates adjust and global economic conditions fluctuate, Bitcoin’s path remains unpredictable.
Yet, the resilience demonstrated over the past year offers a glimmer of hope. The cryptocurrency ecosystem is evolving, and with it, the strategies of its investors. Whether Bitcoin will continue its upward climb or face new challenges is a narrative that only time will tell.
In the meantime, market watchers and crypto enthusiasts alike will keep their eyes peeled. The interplay between traditional finance and digital currencies promises to keep us all on our toes. One thing’s for sure—it’s going to be an intriguing ride.
Source
This article is based on: A Year Ago Today, Bitcoin Hit $49K on Yen Carry Trade Unwind, Now It’s Up 130%
Further Reading
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Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
