Bitcoin’s historical price patterns are once again under the spotlight as the cryptocurrency market moves through September 2025. Historically, September has been a challenging month for Bitcoin (BTC), but recent trends suggest that this year’s low might already be behind us. On September 1st, BTC touched a low of approximately $107,000, which could represent the month’s bottom if historical patterns hold true.
Historical Patterns and Market Behaviors
A glance back to July 2024 reveals a fascinating trend: Bitcoin tends to form its monthly low within the first 10 days. This pattern has been remarkably consistent, with a few notable exceptions in February, June, and August 2025. During these months, the lows occurred later, yet the market still experienced a correction early on before resuming its broader trend.
Speculating on why Bitcoin often hits its low early in the month, experts point to institutional portfolio rebalancing and the timing of significant macroeconomic events, which frequently cluster at the start of each month. This is compounded by the expiration of several futures and options contracts at the end of one month or the beginning of the next. Such expirations can inject short-term volatility into the market, followed by a lull as traders reposition or rollover trades.
The Role of Institutional Influence
Oliver Knight, deputy managing editor, data and tokens, at CoinDesk, provides insight into these trends. “It’s worth noting that several futures and options markets expire on the final day of the month or the first day of the next,” Knight explains. This expiration can create temporary market turbulence, but it can also establish a foundation for subsequent stabilization as traders adjust their positions.
Institutional investors play a pivotal role in these dynamics. Their portfolio rebalancing activities can lead to significant market movements, especially when large volumes are involved. Early-month economic reports and policy announcements further contribute to market activity, as traders respond to new data and adjust their strategies accordingly.
Looking Ahead to Q4
As the market progresses through September, many eyes are turning toward the fourth quarter, historically Bitcoin’s strongest. On average, Q4 has delivered an impressive 85% return for BTC, making it a highly anticipated period for traders and investors alike. October, in particular, stands out with only two losing months since 2013, highlighting its potential as a bullish month for Bitcoin.
However, it’s important to remember that past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. While historical patterns can offer valuable insights, the cryptocurrency market is inherently volatile and influenced by a myriad of factors. Geopolitical events, regulatory changes, and technological advancements can all impact Bitcoin’s trajectory, creating uncertainty even in the face of strong historical trends.
Balancing Optimism with Caution
As Bitcoin navigates September and approaches the final quarter of the year, market participants are balancing optimism with caution. The possibility that September’s low has already been established is encouraging, but the market’s unpredictable nature necessitates a careful approach.
Investors and traders are advised to remain vigilant, keeping a close eye on macroeconomic indicators and market developments. While the historical trend suggests a favorable Q4, it’s crucial to be prepared for unexpected shifts and to have strategies in place to manage risk effectively.
In conclusion, Bitcoin’s potential September low around $107,000 aligns with historical patterns, offering a glimmer of hope for a robust Q4. However, as always in the world of cryptocurrency, staying informed and adaptable remains essential. As the market continues to evolve, those who can skillfully navigate its complexities stand to benefit the most.
Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
