Bitcoin is on the cusp of a significant surge, according to Asia-focused Tiger Research. The firm has set an ambitious price target of $190,000 for Bitcoin (BTC) by the end of the third quarter of 2025. Their analysis hinges on a potent cocktail of record global liquidity, a structural demand from ETFs, and newfound 401(k) access to cryptocurrencies, painting a picture of the strongest market setup since the bullish days of 2021.
Institutional Interest and Market Dynamics
Tiger Research’s projection is not plucked from thin air. It’s grounded in a detailed model that starts with a base price of $135,000. From there, the firm applies a 3.5% boost from fundamental factors alongside a hefty 35% increase attributed to macroeconomic conditions, culminating in their $190,000 target. This represents a robust 67% climb from the current average of $113,000. For further insights into the market’s potential trajectory, see our Bitcoin Market Projection for the 2nd Half of 2025.
The driving forces behind this forecast are clear. First, the M2 money supply has ballooned beyond $90 trillion, fostering a fertile environment for asset inflation. Second, the appetite for Bitcoin among ETFs and corporations has swelled, now making up 6% of the cryptocurrency’s supply. Lastly, a regulatory nod in the United States has unlocked retirement accounts for crypto investment, a move Tiger describes as a “definitive signal” of Bitcoin’s evolution into a staple institutional asset. Even a modest 1% allocation from the sprawling $8.9 trillion 401(k) pool could translate into an astonishing $90 billion in demand for Bitcoin. For a deeper dive into the implications of this development, see our analysis on how Bitcoin 401(k)s thrill crypto investors but carry serious risks.
Accumulation Patterns and Market Signals
The institutional shift is already leaving a mark. ETFs collectively hold a staggering 1.3 million BTC. Meanwhile, MicroStrategy (MSTR), a prominent player in the space, has amassed over 629,000 coins, valued at around $71 billion. Their strategic buying, often through convertible bonds, has introduced a steady flow of capital into Bitcoin, with transaction volumes reflecting a marked shift from retail to institutional block activity.
However, it’s not all smooth sailing. Despite the bullish sentiment, Tiger’s report acknowledges an unbalanced network landscape. Daily transactions and active user numbers remain subdued compared to last year’s peaks, with retail participation noticeably waning. There’s a growing consensus that new initiatives, possibly through innovations like BTCFi, are crucial to sparking renewed interest beyond the institutional realm.
On-chain metrics offer a mixed bag of signals. The MVRV-Z score, which measures how much market price exceeds the original purchase price, sits at 2.49—a level historically associated with looming corrections as profits accumulate. Meanwhile, the Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (ASOPR) at 1.019 suggests sellers are realizing modest gains, hinting at a market that’s far from euphoric. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) stands at 0.558, indicating a healthy, yet not overly exuberant, market sentiment.
Looking Ahead
While Tiger Research’s bullish forecast is bolstered by a confluence of favorable factors, questions linger about the sustainability of this trend. Can institutional adoption alone drive Bitcoin to such heights? Or will retail interest need to rekindle for the market to reach its full potential? As history has shown, the crypto market is anything but predictable.
The coming months will be pivotal. Market participants and analysts alike will be watching closely to see if Bitcoin can indeed make this giant leap. Whether or not it does, the evolving dynamics of institutional investment and regulatory developments promise to keep the cryptocurrency narrative as compelling as ever.
Source
This article is based on: Bitcoin Headed to $190K on Institutional Wave, Research Firm Says
Further Reading
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Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
