Kenneth S. Rogoff, the Harvard economist whose bold prediction that Bitcoin would crash to $100 by 2028 now rings with a certain irony, is in the spotlight again. Back in 2018, Rogoff, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, envisioned a radically different trajectory for the flagship cryptocurrency. Fast forward to today, with Bitcoin comfortably trading at around $113,000, and Rogoff is reflecting on how his expectations were upended—largely, he says, due to lax regulatory oversight.
Regulatory Predictions Missed the Mark
Rogoff took to the social media platform X on Tuesday, candidly acknowledging his forecast’s failure. His original assumption was that governments, especially in the U.S., would clamp down on digital currencies to curb their use in tax evasion and illicit activities. It was a miscalculation, he now admits, pointing to a regulatory environment that has allowed Bitcoin and its ilk to flourish unchecked. For more on Rogoff’s change of heart, see Harvard economist admits he was wrong about Bitcoin crashing to $100.
“I was far too optimistic about the U.S. coming to its senses regarding sensible cryptocurrency regulation,” Rogoff commented. This lack of oversight, he argues, has not only allowed Bitcoin to thrive but has also fueled its acceptance as a medium of exchange in the sprawling, multi-trillion-dollar global underground economy.
The Role of the Underground Economy
Rogoff’s revised perspective emphasizes Bitcoin’s unexpected role in the underground economy. “This demand puts a floor on its price,” he elaborated, referencing his recent publication, “Our Dollar, Your Problem.” According to Rogoff, Bitcoin’s utility in this shadow economy has given it a resilience that traditional market analyses failed to grasp.
The Harvard economist also identified what he terms a “blatant conflict of interest” among regulators. He suggests that some may be financially entangled in the very digital assets they are supposed to oversee. “Holding hundreds of millions (if not billions) of dollars in cryptocurrencies seemingly without consequence,” he remarked, implies a troubling convergence of interests that could hinder impartial regulation.
A Changing Landscape for Cryptocurrencies
Rogoff’s reflections come at a time when the broader cryptocurrency market is undergoing significant transformation. The industry’s resilience amid regulatory uncertainties is evident, yet questions linger about its sustainability. Analysts are divided: some believe that further regulation is inevitable and necessary, while others argue that cryptocurrencies have, in essence, become too big to regulate effectively. This follows a pattern of institutional adoption, which we detailed in Brevan Howard, Goldman Sachs and Harvard Lead Billions in Bitcoin ETF Buying Spree.
While Rogoff’s initial prediction missed the mark by a considerable margin, his insights into the regulatory environment and the underground economy offer a nuanced understanding of Bitcoin’s current standing. As cryptocurrencies continue to evolve, the interplay between market forces and regulatory actions remains a focal point of discussion.
Looking Ahead: The Future of Bitcoin and Regulation
As we look to the future, the relationship between cryptocurrencies and regulators is likely to be a defining factor in shaping market trajectories. Will governments finally tighten their grip, or will digital currencies continue to thrive in a regulatory gray area? With Bitcoin’s price now surpassing the $100,000 mark—uncharted territory compared to its humble beginnings—Rogoff’s reflections serve as a poignant reminder of the unpredictable nature of economic forecasts.
In the end, the debate over cryptocurrency regulation is far from settled. Rogoff’s perspective adds a layer of complexity to an already intricate narrative, raising questions about whether current trends will persist or if a regulatory watershed is on the horizon. Regardless of what unfolds, one thing is clear: the world of digital currencies is as dynamic and unpredictable as ever.
Source
This article is based on: Harvard Professor Who Predicted Bitcoin Crash to $100 Says Regulators Were Too Lax
Further Reading
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Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
