Quantum computing may be closer to cracking encrypted systems than previously thought, according to a new study by Google Quantum AI researcher Craig Gidney. This revelation, made public this May, has sent ripples through the cryptocurrency world, hinting at a potentially seismic shift in the security landscape that underpins digital currencies.
Quantum Leap in Decryption Capabilities
Gidney’s research suggests that the quantum resources needed to break RSA encryption—an encryption method foundational to many secure systems—are 20 times fewer than earlier estimates. While Bitcoin itself doesn’t utilize RSA, relying instead on elliptic curve cryptography (ECC), the implications are profound. ECC, though currently secure against classical attacks, could eventually succumb to the same quantum breakthroughs that threaten RSA.
The crux of Gidney’s findings lies in the use of Shor’s algorithm, a quantum algorithm capable of factoring large numbers, which is essential in cracking RSA and, by extension, potentially ECC. “I estimate that a 2048-bit RSA integer could be factored in under a week by a quantum computer with fewer than one million noisy qubits,” Gidney noted, a significant downgrade from his 2019 prediction requiring 20 million qubits.
Here’s the catch: the quantum computers necessary for such feats don’t exist yet. IBM’s Condor, the most advanced quantum processor as of now, has just over 1,100 qubits, while Google’s Sycamore sports a mere 53. Nevertheless, the trajectory of quantum computing development suggests that these capabilities are not as distant as once thought.
A Call to Arms for Crypto Security
The crypto community is no stranger to the looming specter of quantum threats, but Gidney’s research compresses the timeline, urging a reevaluation of existing security protocols. ECC, the cryptographic method safeguarding Bitcoin, could see its timeline for vulnerability shortened as quantum computing advances.
Industry experts are sounding the alarm. “This isn’t about panicking but preparing,” says Dr. Emily Tran, a cryptography analyst with Blockchain Security Solutions. According to Tran, while quantum computers capable of breaking ECC are years away, the industry must invest in quantum-resistant algorithms now. “We can’t afford to wait until the storm is at our doorstep.” This sentiment echoes the proactive stance seen in other sectors, such as Google’s recent integration of blockchain technology to enhance user privacy, as detailed in our coverage of Google’s blockchain initiatives.
Projects like the quantum research group, Project 11, are actively probing the limits of current encryption. Earlier this year, they dangled a 1 BTC (~$85,000) bounty for anyone able to break minuscule ECC key sizes using quantum technology—a testament to the urgency of gauging quantum capabilities.
Navigating a Quantum Future
The implications of quantum computing breakthroughs extend far beyond Bitcoin. RSA encryption, which Gidney’s study directly addresses, is a backbone for internet security protocols, including TLS and email encryption. The potential for quantum computers to unravel these systems could prompt a tectonic shift in digital security practices.
“Quantum computing is like a double-edged sword,” muses Alex Chen, a quantum computing researcher unaffiliated with Google. “On one hand, its potential to solve complex problems is unparalleled. On the other, it threatens to upend the very security frameworks we rely on.”
The crypto sector, often a canary in the cybersecurity coal mine, might lead the charge toward adopting quantum-resistant technologies. Already, some blockchain projects are experimenting with post-quantum cryptography, seeking to future-proof against the inevitable rise of quantum machines. This aligns with broader economic trends, as highlighted in Kevin O’Leary’s vision of crypto becoming a major economic sector, underscoring the growing importance of digital currencies.
In the coming months, as we edge closer to the quantum horizon, the conversation will likely shift from theoretical musings to practical implementations. The race is on—not just to build quantum computers—but to safeguard against them.
While Gidney’s findings are not an immediate threat, they underscore a critical juncture for digital security. The industry stands at a crossroads: continue along the familiar path, or pivot towards quantum resistance. One thing is clear: the quantum era is approaching faster than anticipated, and the crypto world must adapt or risk being left in the dust.
Source
This article is based on: Quantum Computing Could Break Bitcoin-Like Encryption Far Easier Than Intially Thought, Google Researcher Says
Further Reading
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Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
