Dogecoin enthusiasts might want to brace themselves as a familiar pattern emerges on the cryptocurrency’s charts, signaling a potential major rally reminiscent of past explosive surges. According to a high-timeframe analysis by Kevin from Kev Capital TA, published on September 11, Dogecoin is nearing an inflection point that previously preceded its most significant advances.
A Familiar Signal
Kevin’s analysis hinges on the stochastic RSI (stoch RSI) cross on the monthly chart, which is forming but hasn’t yet crossed above the 20 threshold. This technical pattern echoes the conditions that fueled Dogecoin’s previous explosive rallies. For instance, back in February 2017, a V-shaped stoch RSI cross above the 20 level propelled Dogecoin into a staggering 1,852% rally. A subsequent monthly cross yielded a similarly impressive 1,751% gain before the market ultimately peaked.
The setup appears to be coalescing again as we head into the final quarter of 2025. Kevin uses a simple framework, combining the monthly stoch RSI with the monthly RSI and an anchored trend structure. In past cycles, sustained stoch RSI crosses above 20 marked the dividing line between failed bear-market attempts and genuine bull-cycle advances.
Historical Context
In the 2015–2017 cycle, these stochastic RSI crosses signaled the start of significant rallies. Conversely, a 2019 rally attempt fizzled out because the stoch RSI never achieved a durable cross to the upside amid a dominant bear regime. The 2020–2021 cycle saw Dogecoin’s biggest rally yet, triggered by a new stoch RSI bull cross above 20.
Kevin notes that the current cycle has followed a cleaner sequence than its predecessors. After a confirmed monthly stoch RSI bull cross earlier in the cycle, Dogecoin experienced an initial surge of approximately 280%. Following a corrective phase, another monthly cross fueled a November-December rally of about 497%. The market has since reset, and Kevin sees the process restarting.
The Technical Confluence
Beyond momentum indicators, Kevin highlights a three-part structural confluence on the monthly chart. First, the RSI has repeatedly crossed back above its moving average at key inflection points. Second, each of these RSI/MA recaptures coincides with a stoch RSI cross to the upside. Third, Dogecoin’s price has maintained a long-running trend line with higher lows.
After briefly dipping below this trend line, Dogecoin is now breaking back above it and the RSI MA simultaneously, demonstrating what Kevin describes as a textbook double-bottom reaction. He emphasizes the importance of monthly closes, noting that “we still have more than half a month to go,” but the multi-indicator alignment remains intact.
Kevin believes that as long as the macro backdrop doesn’t flip adverse, these combined indicators and technicals form a robust foundation for a potential rally.
Macro Conditions as a Catalyst
However, macroeconomic conditions are crucial in determining the success of this setup. Kevin points to US monetary policy as a decisive driver of the crypto risk cycle. He argues that inflation has been relatively stable over the past year, and softening labor data anchors expectations for rate cuts in the coming months.
If this path holds and the Federal Reserve adopts a dovish tone at the upcoming FOMC meeting, Kevin expects Bitcoin dominance to decline, paving the way for an “alt season” where Dogecoin could outperform Bitcoin. On the flip side, a hawkish stance or rising inflation could pose a significant challenge to this bullish setup.
Timing and Risk Management
Kevin also considers seasonality and timing in his risk management approach. September is traditionally a weak month for markets, and with the FOMC meeting just around the corner, he anticipates choppy and indecisive price action in the near term. However, he remains anchored to the higher-timeframe roadmap: a monthly uptrend structure, RSI reclaiming its moving average, stoch RSI in an early-stage turn, and the historical tendency for significant Dogecoin expansions to ignite only after these momentum gauges push into overdrive.
“These charts are telling us right in our faces that Dogecoin is preparing for a bigger move higher… the pathway is laid,” Kevin asserts. As of now, DOGE is trading at $0.261, leaving many to wonder if history will indeed repeat itself for this beloved meme coin.
Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
