Dogecoin enthusiasts might want to keep their eyes peeled. Alphractal, a cryptocurrency analytics firm, has unveiled a set of intriguing on-chain and market structure signals suggesting that Dogecoin (DOGE) could be gearing up for a significant rally. These insights, published just yesterday on X, outline a fascinating blend of miner resilience, a stable Network Stress Index, and model-derived bands that could herald a fresh advance for the meme coin.
The Metrics Behind the Hype
Alphractal’s analysis leans heavily on what they call the Network Stress Index, a composite measure that evaluates the health and pressure of the chain. This index examines three key dimensions: Fee Stress, Hash Stress, and Supply Stress. Currently, the indicator signals stability, suggesting a balanced network with no warning signs of risk. “Higher values suggest potential instability or major transitions. Lower values reflect a balanced network across economic, security, and activity dimensions,” the firm elaborated.
And that’s not all. The analysis also introduces two valuation and cycle tools, Alpha Price and Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD). Alphractal describes the Alpha Price model as a “magnetic force for sentiment,” a behavioral anchor that prices tend to gravitate towards over time. The CVDD, meanwhile, tracks the age-weighted value of coins moving on-chain, offering insights into potential tops and bottoms in UTXO blockchains like DOGE. This aligns with recent observations in our coverage of 4.9 Billion DOGE maturing, which could drive Dogecoin’s price recovery.
A Path to $1?
The CVDD Top currently sits at $0.54, but there’s room for optimism. If a rally encourages long-dormant Dogecoins to circulate, this top band could climb higher, potentially pushing targets above the $1 mark. As Alphractal puts it, $0.54 could transform from a ceiling into “just the starting floor,” driven by euphoric network activity.
Miner resilience bolsters this optimistic outlook. Alphractal notes that hash rate activity is nearing record highs, indicating strong security spend and miner participation. This strength, combined with price action clustering around the True Market Mean Price, sets the stage for potential Dogecoin expansion. Charts accompanying Alphractal’s August 21st post reinforce this setup phase, pointing to similar conditions that preceded past Dogecoin surges.
The Cautionary Tale
However, it’s not all sunshine and rainbows. Alphractal injects a note of caution, reminding traders that while this opportunity may appear sustainable, the current market microstructure demands vigilance. Leverage is building across crypto markets, and traders should be wary of sudden traps and mass liquidations as DOGE gains momentum. In essence, while the on-chain models paint a promising picture, the market’s positioning and derivatives dynamics could introduce sharp downside shocks on the path to potential gains. This is particularly relevant given recent market dynamics, as discussed in our report on Dogecoin sellers and Monero attackers.
In summary, Alphractal outlines a simple yet compelling roadmap: a stable network, resilient miners, and price adherence to historically significant on-chain bands create room for upside. The CVDD Top, currently at $0.54, could rise toward and potentially above $1 if dormant supply awakens. Whether Dogecoin can translate this setup into a full breakout will depend on the delicate interplay between organic spot demand and a leveraged market prone to sudden squeezes in either direction.
As of today, DOGE trades at $0.218—far from the $1 mark but brimming with possibility. Whether it can reach those heights remains to be seen, but the potential is undoubtedly there, waiting for the right conditions to ignite a rally that could captivate the crypto world once again.
Source
This article is based on: Dogecoin About To Explode? On-Chain Models Hint At A Massive Rally
Further Reading
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Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
