Fed’s Rate Cut Casts New Light on Crypto Landscape
In a move that has rippled across financial markets, the Federal Reserve executed its first rate cut of 2025, reducing interest rates by 25 basis points on September 17. This decision, lowering the federal funds target range to 4.00%-4.25%, marks a significant shift in macroeconomic policy, one that prominent crypto trader Mayne believes could reshape the cryptocurrency market’s trajectory.
A New Chapter for Bitcoin?
For the crypto market, the Fed’s rate cut is more than just a monetary policy adjustment; it’s a potential catalyst for change. Veteran trader Mayne, known for his technical analysis, argues that the removal of this macroeconomic “X-factor” allows the crypto market to concentrate solely on technical charts. In a recent video analysis, he expressed optimism that Bitcoin might reach new all-time highs, possibly climbing to the $120,000-$121,000 range before experiencing a pullback.
Mayne’s approach is technical, relying on price-action strategies. He anticipates Bitcoin’s price pushing above its mid-range, where he plans to monitor for a potential rejection at a higher-time-frame confluence, defined by a weekly swing-failure pattern (SFP) and an H12 breaker. If momentum slows, Mayne intends to short Bitcoin to clear built-up leverage before buying the dip for what he predicts will be the final parabolic leg of the cycle.
The Path to Altseason
The rate cut is seen by many as a prelude to further monetary easing, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell leaving the door open for additional cuts in response to weakening labor dynamics. This dovish stance has led to speculation about a forthcoming “altseason,” where altcoins could experience significant gains as Bitcoin completes its upward trajectory.
Mayne forecasts a cycle top in late 2025 or early 2026, with Bitcoin potentially reaching between $150,000 and $180,000. He envisions a scenario where Bitcoin’s price surge is followed by a redistribution phase, during which altcoins like Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin could see substantial price increases. Ethereum, for example, might rise to $5,000-$7,000, while Solana could hit $300-$500, and Dogecoin $0.50-$0.70.
Technical Analysis Takes Center Stage
Mayne’s strategy leans heavily on familiar concepts to discretionary traders, such as weekly SFPs, H12 breakers, and fair-value gaps. These elements frame high-probability reaction zones and guide potential liquidity movements during corrective periods. Despite the macroeconomic backdrop, Mayne insists that the weekly trend for Bitcoin remains upward, emphasizing that any short position is tactical.
His approach is clear: wait for Bitcoin to approach the $120,000 range, watch for signs of weakness to execute a counter-trend short, or, if no weakness appears, prepare for a breakout continuation. His focus remains steadfast on Bitcoin, with any significant dip seen as a buying opportunity to prepare for the anticipated altseason.
Balancing Optimism with Caution
While Mayne’s outlook is optimistic, it’s not without its contingencies. He cautions that if Bitcoin spends significant time below its 2024 all-time high, it could signal a need to reassess his strategy. However, with the recent rate cut, he believes the stage is set for Bitcoin to capitalize on a favorable market environment, provided that traders remain nimble and responsive to market signals.
Conclusion
As the crypto market digests the Fed’s latest move, traders and investors alike are poised for potential shifts in momentum. With Bitcoin trading at $117,176 at press time, the coming weeks promise to be pivotal in determining whether crypto’s next chapter is one of continued ascent or a recalibration in the face of new economic realities. As always, the balance between technical analysis and market sentiment will be key in navigating this evolving landscape.
Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
