Crypto platform Bullish is navigating a cautious landscape, as Compass Point initiates coverage with a neutral rating and a $45 price target. Analyst Ed Engel’s hesitations center on the challenging timing and high valuation of the stock, despite its potential to nibble away at Coinbase’s U.S. market share through a competitive fee structure.
Regulatory Hurdles and Market Entry
Engel’s analysis underscores significant obstacles Bullish might face in entering U.S. markets. The CLARITY Act—a comprehensive legislative effort aimed at clarifying jurisdictional boundaries between the CFTC and SEC—is anticipated to be a prerequisite for Bullish’s expansion. Yet, with its passage potentially delayed until mid-2026, the path forward is anything but clear. “We have a hard time seeing Bullish entering U.S. markets until Congress passes market structure legislation,” Engel observes, echoing a sentiment that highlights the labyrinthine regulatory environment. For a deeper dive into the regulatory implications, see our coverage of the SEC’s latest guidance.
Adding to the complexity is New York’s BitLicense regime, a regulatory gauntlet that has historically challenged many crypto entities. Bullish’s unique model—acting as its own market maker via an automated mechanism—could stir regulatory apprehensions over conflict-of-interest issues, further complicating its U.S. ambitions.
Financial Projections and Market Dynamics
Bullish’s financial outlook is closely tied to the volatile nature of its $2.7 billion crypto treasury, predominantly held in bitcoin. Engel cautions that while the stock’s performance could soar with bitcoin’s rise, it is equally susceptible to nosedives given bitcoin’s notorious volatility. His $45 price target presupposes bitcoin reaching $160,000, a scenario not for the faint-hearted.
Engel also highlights a potential buying opportunity emerging in the next one to two quarters, considering the stock’s formidable 110x multiple on projected 2026 EBITDA. This valuation underscores the high stakes and speculative nature of investing in Bullish at its current trajectory.
Historical Context and Market Performance
Bullish’s journey began with a public debut in August, where shares launched at $37 and surged to close at $68 on its first trading day. However, the euphoria has since tempered, with shares dipping 4.6% to $59.20 recently. This volatility mirrors both the promise and peril inherent in the crypto sphere—a microcosm of broader market dynamics. This follows a pattern of institutional adoption, which we detailed in our analysis of corporate treasury investments.
Despite these challenges, Engel’s analysis includes a silver lining: the expansion into U.S. markets holds a substantial upside, potentially adding $12 per share in value. But it’s contingent on navigating the regulatory quagmire and market volatility—factors that loom large over Bullish’s future.
Looking Ahead
As Bullish charts its course, the interplay of regulatory developments, market dynamics, and valuation considerations will be critical. The company’s journey is emblematic of the broader crypto market’s evolution—fraught with challenges, yet brimming with opportunity. The coming months will be pivotal, raising questions about how Bullish will maneuver through this intricate landscape. Will it seize the moment or stumble under the weight of regulatory and market pressures? Only time will tell.
Source
This article is based on: Bullish Gets Cautious Outlook from Compass Point
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Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
