As autumn descends, the cryptocurrency market finds itself in a position of cautious optimism, with analysts at Coinbase projecting a promising fourth quarter. In a recent report, David Duong and Colin Basco, Coinbase’s leading market analysts, outlined the confluence of factors they believe will sustain the current crypto market rally. Their insights suggest that the blend of resilient liquidity, macroeconomic tailwinds, and evolving regulatory frameworks could create a supportive environment for digital assets in the months ahead.
The Macro Picture: Winds of Favor
The analysts’ optimism is largely anchored in the macroeconomic landscape, which they argue provides a favorable backdrop for cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin (BTC). “Barring a shock to energy prices, we think the immediate risk to disrupting the current U.S. monetary policy path is actually quite low,” Duong and Basco noted. This stability is crucial for Bitcoin, often seen as a hedge against economic instability and inflation.
The macro tailwinds they refer to are multifaceted. On one hand, global economic recovery continues to gather pace, albeit unevenly, suggesting that risk appetite among investors might remain robust. On the other hand, regulatory clarity is slowly emerging, particularly in the United States, where supportive signals from regulators could pave the way for broader institutional adoption.
On-Chain Demand and Digital Asset Treasuries
Coinbase’s report also highlights the critical role of on-chain demand, especially from Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs), in underpinning asset prices. As of September 10, publicly disclosed DATs hold over 1 million BTC, valued at approximately $110 billion, alongside significant holdings in Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL). This substantial accumulation acts as a price floor and indicates robust institutional interest.
The report suggests that these treasuries are not merely passive holders; they’re strategic players in the crypto ecosystem, actively managing their portfolios to optimize returns. As late entrants chase altcoins, driving them further down the risk curve, the market is entering what Coinbase describes as a “player-versus-player” phase. This dynamic favors large-cap tokens but could soon lead to consolidation among smaller DAT players.
Seasonality: A Waning Concern?
One caveat for investors, historically, has been the seasonal trend of declining Bitcoin prices in September. From 2017 to 2022, BTC saw six consecutive Septembers of losses against the dollar. However, as pointed out by the analysts, this pattern did not hold in 2023 or 2024. The small sample size and wide dispersion of outcomes, they argue, limit the reliability of seasonal indicators.
Moreover, the broader context of the DAT cycle appears to be a more meaningful factor. The analysts believe that as the cycle matures, demand dynamics will shift, possibly smoothing out historical seasonal volatility. This evolution could redefine traditional market behaviors, offering a more stable trajectory for digital assets.
Regulatory Momentum: A Double-Edged Sword
While regulatory developments are generally seen as supportive, they remain a double-edged sword. The ongoing dialogue between cryptocurrency stakeholders and regulators is crucial. Positive regulatory signals can enhance market confidence, but the specter of restrictive policies still looms. Nevertheless, recent trends suggest a tilt towards regulation that seeks to integrate rather than inhibit, which could bolster market sentiment.
Coinbase’s optimism for the fourth quarter is underpinned by this regulatory momentum. An environment where rules are clear and consistent could encourage more institutional players to enter the market, driving liquidity and growth. However, the analysts caution that vigilance is necessary, as unanticipated regulatory shifts could still unsettle the market.
Looking Ahead: A Constructive Outlook
As we approach the final quarter of 2025, Coinbase’s analysts maintain a constructive outlook. They anticipate that strong liquidity, a favorable macroeconomic backdrop, and regulatory progress will keep crypto markets well-supported. However, as with any market, risks remain, and investors are advised to stay informed and agile.
The interplay between market forces and regulatory developments will likely shape the landscape in the coming months. For now, the crypto market appears poised to navigate these waters with a blend of caution and optimism, spurred by the factors outlined by Coinbase.
While it’s impossible to predict the future with certainty, the insights provided by Duong and Basco offer a roadmap for those navigating the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrencies. As always, staying informed and adaptable will be key to capitalizing on the opportunities that lie ahead.
Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
