Clearmatics is stepping into the decentralized finance (DeFi) scene with a groundbreaking venture that might just redefine how traders engage with derivatives. Announced today, the company is launching a new class of decentralized futures products called forecast markets. These innovative instruments will allow traders to bet on a wide array of public time series data—from crypto indexes to global temperatures—on the soon-to-be-launched layer-1 blockchain, Autonity.
A New Frontier for Futures
This isn’t your typical prediction market, though. Forecast markets, while reminiscent of platforms like Polymarket, work differently. Instead of offering a one-time payout for predicting an event, these futures contracts offer a continuous, symmetrical payoff by tracking underlying factors over time. “It’s about more than just betting on an outcome,” explained Robert Sams, CEO of Clearmatics, in an interview. “It’s about creating a financial tool that can track any time series that matters enough to the market—be it GDP, inflation, or even weather patterns.”
Set to coincide with a “Forecastathon” event next month, the launch aims to engage quants, engineers, and DeFi enthusiasts in creating prototype products on Autonity. The Ethereum-compatible chain and its Autonomous Futures Protocol (AFP) promise a permissionless environment where futures contracts can be created for virtually any measurable risk factor. This innovative approach is part of a broader trend in the crypto space, as seen in Kraken’s launch of a US crypto derivatives platform.
Not Just Another Prediction Market
While prediction markets, like Polymarket, have captured attention by focusing on specific events, forecast markets aim to serve a different purpose. “Prediction markets are great for topical narratives,” said Sams. “But they disappear once the event is over. Our forecast markets allow liquidity to build over time and track ongoing risks.”
The distinction is crucial. Instead of competing, the two are seen as complementary. “We see them serving different needs in a shared and growing space of market-based mechanisms for managing uncertainty,” Sams noted. Therein lies the potential for these instruments to offer real-world utility, says Stanley Yong, head of the Autonity Foundation. He points to Singapore’s certificate of entitlement (COE) for cars as an example of a risk that could be hedged using a forecast contract.
Decentralization at Its Core
Autonity and the AFP also promise a novel market structure, where the processes of trading and clearing are decoupled. This separation allows for products to be listed across multiple trading venues, with all collateral and margin requirements handled on-chain. “It’s about true decentralization,” Sams emphasized. “A market isn’t decentralized if you’re forced to trade on one venue—even if it’s a DEX.”
This approach could solve one of DeFi’s persistent issues: the fragmentation of open interest across exchange silos. By allowing traders to enter and exit positions through their venue of choice, Clearmatics hopes to enhance liquidity and capital efficiency. This mirrors efforts by other platforms to expand access to derivatives, such as OKX’s introduction of regulated crypto derivatives for retail traders in the UAE.
Looking Ahead
As Clearmatics prepares to unveil its forecast markets next month, questions linger about the broader implications for the crypto derivatives space. Will traders embrace this novel approach? Can it truly offer the social utility and value creation Sams envisions? While the answers remain to be seen, the potential impact on DeFi and beyond is undeniable.
With the crypto derivatives landscape rapidly evolving, Clearmatics’ foray into forecast markets could mark a pivotal moment. Whether it will reshape the way we hedge risks and manage uncertainty in financial markets is a story that’s just beginning to unfold.
Source
This article is based on: Clearmatics’ New DeFi Derivatives Let Traders Bet on Anything, but It’s Not a Prediction Market
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Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
