Bitcoin has surged to a new weekly high, breaking the $112,000 barrier, signaling what could be the final leg of its current market cycle. CryptoBirb, a noted market analyst, suggests this uptrend might continue for another 50 days, marking a 95% completion of Bitcoin’s cycle that began in November 2022. With today’s date being September 6, 2025, the anticipation is palpable as traders watch for a peak between late October and mid-November.
The Final Countdown: 50 Days to the Peak?
As Bitcoin enthusiasts know, history loves a good repeat. Traditionally, Bitcoin’s bullish phases have reached their crescendo 1,060 to 1,100 days following a significant market low. Given that we are currently 1,017 days in, the calculations hint at a potential peak as Halloween candy is being handed out and autumn leaves crunch underfoot.
But here’s the twist: the relationship between Bitcoin halvings—those much-anticipated events that cut the mining reward in half—and price peaks is well-documented. Since the last halving in April 2024, we’ve seen 503 days tick by, with precedent suggesting peaks 518 to 580 days post-halving. In short, Bitcoin is sashaying into what analysts call the “hot zone”—a period rife with volatility and sudden price shifts. This aligns with recent observations in Bitcoin analysts see a ‘massive’ move as BTC price regains $112K, which highlights the potential for significant market movements.
CryptoBirb, always one to spice things up with a dash of caution, reminds us that after soaring peaks, Bitcoin doesn’t just stumble; it plunges. We’re talking a potential 70% to 80% drop over the following 370 to 410 days. The next bear market, historically guaranteed in 2026, looms large, promising turbulence for those who hang on too long.
Market Mechanics: Support, Resistance, and the “September Effect”
Technically speaking, support levels sit comfortably at the 50-week simple moving average of $95,900 and the 200-week SMA at $52,300. The daily chart, meanwhile, reveals a breakout point at $111,000 with a 200-day SMA at $101,000. CryptoBirb has pinpointed a local support zone between $107,700 and $108,700, while resistance is expected between $113,000 and $114,100. The technical tea leaves suggest that if Bitcoin slips below the $107,000 to $108,000 mark, bearish winds could blow harder, pushing prices down by 20% to 30%. This technical setup is further explored in Bitcoin price stages 2-week downtrend breakout with $112K next target, which provides insights into potential future price movements.
September, a month not historically kind to Bitcoin, often brings a chill with an average dip of 6.17%. However, hope springs eternal for October and November, where patterns typically shift towards the positive. September 17 has been flagged as a key date to watch for potential market movements.
The Bigger Picture: Mining, Altcoins, and Market Sentiment
Despite potential headwinds, cryptocurrency miners are thriving. With the mining cost pegged at $95,400, the industry shows resilience, minimizing the risk of widespread capitulation. As Bitcoin teeters on the edge of a peak, altcoin season could burst onto the scene, with October and November acting as the stage. CryptoBirb suggests that October 22 could be a pivotal day, likely setting the tone for the months ahead.
As of today, Bitcoin is trading at $112,886, a dip of nearly 11% from its all-time high—a reminder of the market’s inherent volatility. The question on everyone’s mind: Can this rally sustain itself, or will we witness another classic Bitcoin retracement?
As we navigate these choppy waters, the market’s next moves remain an enigma, with traders and analysts alike watching, waiting, and speculating. The only certainty? This cycle, like those before it, will eventually give way to new beginnings, leaving us to ponder what lies just beyond the horizon.
Source
This article is based on: Bitcoin Bull Run Nears Its Climax: Cycle Peak Indicates 95% Completion
Further Reading
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- Bitcoin’s ‘euphoric phase’ cools as $112K becomes key BTC price level
- Bitcoin traders tipping Q4 price top do 'not understand statistics’ — Analyst
Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
