Bitcoin’s exhilarating ascent to a record $111,970 on May 22 has stirred excitement across the crypto landscape. Yet, whether this upward momentum will extend into the third quarter of 2025 remains shrouded in uncertainty. Analysts from Bitfinex point to the coming weeks as pivotal, suggesting the market’s next moves will reveal if this is merely a temporary peak or the prelude to a more robust surge.
The Road Ahead: Consolidation or Breakout?
Bitfinex analysts, in a candid May 28 markets note, emphasized the potential benefits of a cooling-off period. “A period of consolidation or mild retracement would not only be healthy but also provide a more sustainable foundation for the next leg higher,” they remarked. This perspective draws on historical patterns, where Bitcoin often consolidates following new highs. For instance, after hitting $73,679 in March 2024, Bitcoin oscillated within a $20,000 range until November’s political upheaval in the United States. As explored in Bitcoin Surpasses $95K Amid Resilient U.S. Stocks, Analysts Voice Concerns Over Market Perception, the market’s perception plays a crucial role in these fluctuations.
Historically, the third quarter has been Bitcoin’s Achilles’ heel, averaging a modest 6.03% return since 2013, according to CoinGlass data. While Q2 holds a slightly better track record with a 27.25% return, it’s Q4 that historically shines brightest. These seasonal trends add another layer of intrigue as market participants weigh the odds of continued growth.
Market Dynamics: Profit-Taking and Structural Demand
The current landscape is marked by a “short-term range-bound phase,” with a significant exodus of short-term holders — those who bought in the last 155 days — cashing in on recent gains. Over the past month, short-term holders realized profits exceeding $11.4 billion, resulting in a temporary supply glut. Yet, as Bitfinex analysts note, structural demand remains resilient. Data from Bitbo reveals that the short-term holder realized price for Bitcoin stood at $95,781, compared to the trading price of $108,929 at the time of reporting, translating to an average profit of 13.72%.
Adding to the complexity, the influx of approximately $2.75 billion into spot Bitcoin ETFs in the week ending May 23 underscores growing institutional interest. Bitfinex analysts highlight Bitcoin’s ETF “bid strength,” low volatility, and spot premium as indicators of a maturing market poised for further gains — contingent on macroeconomic clarity. This trend aligns with the insights from Bitcoin Surges Past $94,000 as Institutional Interest and Market Optimism Grow, which details the increasing institutional interest driving market optimism.
Eyes on the Fed: Interest Rates and Market Implications
The Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision on June 18 looms large, with investors eagerly anticipating signals of future economic policy. In May, the Fed opted to maintain rates between 4.25% and 4.50%, a decision that leaves the door open for further rate adjustments. As the crypto market grapples with the potential implications, the Fed’s moves could either bolster Bitcoin’s rally or introduce new headwinds.
Notably, Bitcoin’s recent high was anticipated by several industry insiders. Cory Klippsten, CEO of Swan Bitcoin, forecasted a 50% chance of new highs before June, while Real Vision’s Jamie Coutts similarly predicted a breakout before the end of Q2.
Conclusion: Uncharted Waters Ahead
As we stand on the precipice of Q3, Bitcoin’s trajectory remains a tantalizing enigma. Will the market consolidate, setting the stage for sustainable growth, or will external factors — like the Fed’s stance — upend current expectations? The only certainty is uncertainty, leaving investors and analysts alike to navigate these uncharted waters with cautious optimism.
Source
This article is based on: Bitcoin’s ‘aggressive leg higher’ in Q3 still up in the air: Analyst
Further Reading
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Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
