Bitcoin enthusiasts have reason to celebrate as the cryptocurrency has surged approximately 13% this week, almost touching a new record high of $124,500. As the digital currency sits on the edge of this milestone, Standard Chartered’s head of digital asset research, Geoffrey Kendrick, suggests that a further leap to $135,000 could be imminent. But what’s fueling this bullish momentum, and what does it mean for the market?
A New Record in Sight
Bitcoin’s recent rally has captured the attention of investors and analysts alike. On Friday, the cryptocurrency soared close to its all-time high, and Kendrick believes that breaking this ceiling could lead to a rapid ascent to $135,000. This potential climb is attributed to several factors, including the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which Kendrick argues is having a more pronounced impact on markets now than in previous instances.
The Shutdown Effect
Kendrick’s analysis points to a notable correlation between Bitcoin’s performance and U.S. government risk, particularly as measured by U.S. Treasury term premiums. During the 2018-2019 shutdown, Bitcoin operated in a different market context. However, the current scenario suggests that the uncertainty surrounding the shutdown is acting as a bullish driver for Bitcoin. With traders on the prediction marketplace Polymarket giving more than a 60% chance that the shutdown could last between 10 and 29 days, Kendrick believes Bitcoin will continue to rise during this period.
ETF Flows: A Game Changer?
One of the key factors in Bitcoin’s recent surge is the anticipated shift in ETF investor behavior. While gold ETFs have traditionally outperformed their Bitcoin counterparts, Kendrick highlights that spot Bitcoin ETF flows are poised to catch up, providing additional momentum for the cryptocurrency. In 2025 alone, Bitcoin ETFs have seen $23 billion in net inflows, with an impressive $2.25 billion added just this week, excluding Friday’s trading session.
Kendrick’s report suggests that these investment vehicles could attract an additional $20 billion by the end of the year. If this forecast holds true, it would bolster his ambitious prediction of Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by year-end.
Balancing Optimism and Caution
While the outlook for Bitcoin appears promising, it’s essential to consider potential risks and challenges. The volatility inherent in the cryptocurrency market means that sudden price swings are not uncommon. Additionally, the evolving regulatory environment could impact investor sentiment and market dynamics.
Some analysts caution that while the current rally is exciting, investors should remain vigilant and consider the broader economic landscape. Factors such as inflation rates, interest rates, and global economic stability could influence Bitcoin’s trajectory in the coming months.
Looking Ahead
As Bitcoin flirts with new record highs, the coming weeks will be crucial in determining its short-term future. Will it shatter the $135,000 mark and continue its ascent, or will market forces temper its rise? The interplay between government risks, ETF flows, and investor behavior will undoubtedly play pivotal roles.
For now, Bitcoin remains a focal point of interest for traders and investors alike, with many keeping a close eye on its next moves. As the year progresses, the cryptocurrency market promises to be a dynamic and unpredictable space, offering both opportunities and challenges for those willing to navigate its complexities.
In conclusion, while the path to $135,000 and beyond is not without obstacles, the current conditions suggest that Bitcoin’s upward trajectory could very well continue. As always, investors are advised to stay informed, weigh the risks, and make decisions that align with their financial goals and risk tolerance.
Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
