Bitcoin’s market dynamics have long puzzled analysts and investors alike, with many attributing its cycles to the rhythmic halving events that reduce mining rewards. However, James Check, a prominent analyst, threw a curveball into the conversation. He suggests that these cycles are more intricately tied to adoption trends than the much-discussed halvings. This theory, articulated during a recent financial conference held in New York, challenges the conventional wisdom that has guided many crypto enthusiasts.
Decoding Bitcoin’s Market Movements
James Check, who has built a reputation as a sharp observer of crypto markets, contends that Bitcoin’s price surges and slumps are primarily influenced by how the market absorbs and uses Bitcoin, not merely its programmed supply cutbacks. “The market isn’t dancing to the tune of halvings alone,” Check explained. “It’s the broader adoption and integration into financial systems that are steering the ship.”
To illustrate, Check pointed to the 2017 bull run, which many linked to the halving event of 2016. Yet, he argues that the real catalyst was the surge in public awareness and the influx of institutional investors exploring Bitcoin as a legitimate asset class. Similarly, the 2021 price rally coincided with major companies like Tesla and MicroStrategy making headlines with their Bitcoin acquisitions, suggesting that institutional adoption played a far more significant role than the 2020 halving. This follows a pattern of institutional adoption, which we detailed in our analysis of corporate treasury investments.
Adoption Trends: The Real Market Driver?
According to Check’s analysis, Bitcoin’s journey from a niche digital currency to a mainstream financial instrument has more influence on its market cycles than the periodic halving events. He likens these adoption phases to waves, each one bigger and more impactful than the last.
“Every time Bitcoin finds a new use case or gains a new advocate, it creates a ripple effect,” Check noted. “Think of how the Lightning Network’s development or El Salvador’s adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender spurred interest and, subsequently, price movements.” As explored in our recent coverage of Bitcoin’s mining difficulty adjustments, the challenges in mining also play a crucial role in shaping market dynamics.
This perspective isn’t without its critics, though. Some analysts argue that the halving events have an undeniable psychological effect on investors, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy of sorts. However, Check maintains that while these events might spark initial interest, it’s the sustained growth in adoption that propels lasting market shifts.
Looking Forward: What’s Next for Bitcoin?
So, what does this mean for Bitcoin’s future? If Check’s theory holds water, the next big price surge might not wait for the 2024 halving event. Instead, it could come from unforeseen advancements or further institutional adoption—perhaps a major central bank embracing Bitcoin, or a technological breakthrough that transforms its usability.
Yet, this perspective raises questions. Will emerging markets continue to drive adoption? Can Bitcoin maintain its allure amid increasing regulatory scrutiny? And, crucially, how will the market react if the next halving doesn’t align with a bull run?
As we move deeper into 2025, the crypto community stands at a crossroads. Check’s insights add a layer of complexity to the Bitcoin narrative, urging investors to look beyond the halving hype and focus on the broader picture of adoption. It’s a reminder that in the world of cryptocurrency, the only constant is change—and perhaps, unpredictability.
Source
This article is based on: Bitcoin market cycles not anchored around halvings: Analyst
Further Reading
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Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
