Bitcoin’s recent ascent has been anything but tumultuous. Unlike the wild surges of yesteryears, this time around, the cryptocurrency is on a steady and measured climb. As of August 2025, Bitcoin is trading comfortably above historical growth paths without tipping into hazardous overheating levels, according to data from CryptoQuant and insights from Arab Chain. The market dynamics appear to be driven by new entrants, with veteran holders mostly maintaining their positions.
The Calm Before the Potential Storm
Bitcoin’s current trajectory follows a Power Law trend—a model predicting a smooth, logarithmic increase rather than erratic spikes. Sitting above this growth line yet far from the critical “red zone” of overheating, Bitcoin’s price signals a potential for further gains. The divergence indicator, though positive, remains modest compared to the levels witnessed during past speculative bubbles, implying a market that could be experiencing natural growth or perhaps the initial stirrings of renewed investor interest. For more on how this phase might evolve, see our recent article on Bitcoin’s ‘Boring’ Phase Might End With a Big Bang.
Analyst John Harper from Glassnode elaborates, “The beauty of staying clear of the red zone is that it leaves ample room for upward movement before any panic sets in. We’re approximately $50,000 shy of Bitcoin’s most recent peak, which suggests there’s still breathing room for buyers who might want to push prices higher.”
New Players on the Stage
On-chain data reveals a fascinating split in Bitcoin’s trading activity. Short-term holders (STHs), those with wallets active for less than 155 days, have been responsible for around 86% of Bitcoin’s recent trading volume, translating to a hefty $18 billion. Meanwhile, long-term holders (LTHs) accounted for just 14.5% of spent volume, or $3.10 billion. This dichotomy underscores a market driven by fresh participants, while seasoned investors remain resolutely on the sidelines.
Such behavior among LTHs often reflects strong conviction. These long-time believers typically see price dips as opportunities to accumulate rather than moments to sell. As of now, Bitcoin is hovering around $114,113, a slight retreat from its recent high of approximately $118K. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 43, indicating a decrease in bullish momentum but not venturing into oversold territory.
Market Maturity—A Double-Edged Sword?
The broader market picture suggests a cooling phase, according to recent reports. While traders are taking profits, there isn’t a rush to exit. The landscape hints at a maturing market—one that still holds potential for growth but is unlikely to replicate the frenzied spikes of the past. This aligns with insights from CryptoQuant, which suggest that a Bitcoin Correction Could Linger for Months.
A report from TradingView highlights that On-Balance Volume (OBV) has been on a downward trend over the past week, pointing to weakening buying pressure. However, this doesn’t necessarily spell doom. Instead, it indicates a market adjusting to a more sustainable pace. “It’s a sign of maturity,” notes crypto analyst Lisa Chen. “We’re not witnessing a crash but rather a market finding its footing.”
As Bitcoin continues its ascent, the underlying question remains: Can this trend of composed growth sustain itself in an ecosystem often characterized by volatility? With fresh faces driving the market and veteran holders displaying steadfast conviction, the cryptocurrency landscape is poised for a fascinating phase in 2025. Whether this equilibrium will hold or give way to new dynamics is a narrative that will unfold in the coming months.
Source
This article is based on: Slow And Steady: Bitcoin’s Current Rise Feels Different—Study
Further Reading
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Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
