Bitcoin’s recent flirtation with a double-top formation above the $100,000 mark is stirring caution among investors, but a catastrophic plunge akin to past market crashes is not on the horizon—barring an unforeseen disaster, according to Sygnum Bank’s Katalin Tischhauser. Speaking with CoinDesk, Tischhauser highlighted the precarious nature of Bitcoin’s current technical signals while underscoring the robust foundation provided by institutional investment.
The Double-Top Dilemma
Bitcoin traders are eyeing the charts with a mix of anticipation and trepidation. The cryptocurrency has spent nearly two months oscillating between $100,000 and $110,000, a pattern that echoes the ominous double-top formation—a signal that often predicts bearish reversals. Veteran analyst Peter Brandt and others have raised alarms that Bitcoin’s upward momentum might falter, potentially triggering a downturn to levels as low as $27,000. This concern is echoed in Bitcoin Quickly Plunges Below $103K, With Volatility Burst Spurring $450M in Crypto Liquidations, highlighting the market’s sensitivity to sudden shifts.
The double-top pattern emerges when two peaks occur at similar price points, with a trough in between. For Bitcoin, this means the early April drop to $75,000 is crucial. A breach below this level could catalyze a significant decline. Still, Tischhauser and other seasoned observers stress that such a drastic move would likely require more than just technical patterns—a triggering event akin to the Terra or FTX implosions of 2022 would be necessary to drive such a sell-off.
Institutional Influence and Market Sentiment
While technical patterns may suggest caution, the current bull market is heavily underpinned by institutional flows. Since the introduction of 11 spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds on the Nasdaq in January 2024, there has been a staggering influx of over $48 billion, transforming the market landscape. This wave of institutional interest is not just a fleeting trend; it’s changing the dynamics of Bitcoin’s price support.
Tischhauser points out that institutional investors are not easily swayed. Their entry into the crypto space follows rigorous due diligence, and their presence tends to stabilize the market. “Institutions implement rigorous due diligence and risk assessment before they add a new asset class like bitcoin to the model portfolio,” Tischhauser elaborated. “This trend of sticky institutional allocation is just beginning.”
This institutional adoption is creating a demand-supply imbalance, where large-scale purchases absorb available supply, driving prices higher. As Tischhauser notes, the liquidity being “sucked out” by these investment vehicles makes every new investment impact the price more significantly, reinforcing the bullish trend.
The Halving Cycle: A Fading Influence?
Historically, Bitcoin’s halving events have been pivotal, often marking the onset of bull markets followed by steep corrections. The last halving in April 2024 cut the block reward to 3.125 BTC, traditionally a signal for reduced supply and potential price increases. Yet, Tischhauser argues that the influence of halving cycles is waning.
The reason? The market’s current makeup. With institutions holding sway, the role of miners—who once dominated Bitcoin’s supply dynamics—has diminished. The BTC sold by miners now represents a minuscule fraction of daily trading volumes, meaning the traditional supply shock from halving events no longer carries the same weight. “The halving cycle may be dead,” Tischhauser asserts, as the market adapts to new forces driving price action.
Looking Ahead: Cautious Optimism
As Bitcoin navigates this complex landscape, the potential for volatility remains. The threat of a double-top breakdown cannot be entirely dismissed, especially in a market where sentiment can shift rapidly. However, the underlying strength from institutional backing provides a buffer against extreme downturns. For insights into potential market disruptors, see 4 Things That Could Rattle Bitcoin and Crypto Markets This Week.
The crypto market is in a unique phase, with traditional signals like the halving cycle losing their predictive power amid a backdrop of sustained institutional interest. While risks are inherent, the absence of a clear catalyst for a severe crash suggests that the market could sustain its current trajectory, barring any unforeseen events.
In the coming months, investors and analysts will be watching closely for any signs of a shift in sentiment or external shocks that could tip the balance. The interplay between technical patterns and institutional flows will continue to shape the narrative, raising questions about whether Bitcoin can maintain its ascent—or if a course correction is on the horizon. As always, the crypto world remains a place where fortunes can change in the blink of an eye.
Source
This article is based on: Bitcoin’s Double Top Warrants Caution, But a Full-Blown Price Crash Seems Unlikely: Sygnum Bank
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Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
