In the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency, where volatility is often the name of the game, Bitcoin’s journey is closely monitored by traders and investors alike. As of September 17, 2025, the crypto community has its eyes on a critical indicator that might hold the key to understanding Bitcoin’s current bullish trend: the Realized Price of short-term holders (STH). Renowned on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has recently shed light on this metric, offering valuable insights into Bitcoin’s ongoing price behavior.
The Realized Price: A Crucial Indicator
The Realized Price is a concept that captures the average cost basis of Bitcoin investors, essentially reflecting the price at which coins last moved on the blockchain. It’s a powerful tool for gauging the market’s health. When Bitcoin’s spot price surpasses the Realized Price, it suggests that investors are sitting on unrealized gains. Conversely, when the spot price dips below the Realized Price, it implies that the market is, on average, at a net loss.
Glassnode, in its latest analysis, highlights the significance of the Realized Price for a specific group of Bitcoin holders: the short-term holders. This cohort comprises investors who have acquired their Bitcoin within the past 155 days. Understanding their behavior is crucial because these investors often react differently than their long-term counterparts due to their shorter holding periods.
Short-Term Holder Dynamics
Short-term holders, or STHs, are known to be more reactive to market fluctuations. Their relatively low holding time means they are prone to emotional decision-making, often leading to panic selling or buying. This behavioral trait makes the STH Realized Price a vital level to watch for potential support or resistance.
Interestingly, Glassnode’s data reveals that Bitcoin has recently retested the STH Realized Price and has found support at this level. This pattern of support isn’t new; it has been observed multiple times throughout the current bull market. But why does this happen?
Investor Psychology at Play
To understand why the STH Realized Price acts as a support barrier, one must delve into investor psychology. Generally, the longer an investor holds onto their Bitcoin, the less likely they are to sell during market turbulence. Long-term holders have faith in Bitcoin’s long-term potential, but STHs, with their shorter investment horizon, are more susceptible to market jitters.
When Bitcoin’s price approaches the STH Realized Price during a bullish phase, STHs often perceive it as an opportunity to buy the dip. This collective buying behavior reinforces the support level, preventing the price from dropping further. On the flip side, during bearish phases, STHs may view any surge towards their Realized Price as a chance to sell and avoid potential losses, thereby creating resistance.
A Constructive Trend, for Now
As of now, Bitcoin continues to trade above the STH Realized Price, suggesting that the trend remains constructive. Glassnode emphasizes the importance of this support level, noting that losing it has historically coincided with market pullbacks or contractions. In essence, as long as Bitcoin hovers above this critical threshold, the outlook remains optimistic.
Currently, Bitcoin is priced at approximately $116,200, marking a 5% increase over the past week. This upward momentum aligns with the notion that the trend is indeed constructive. However, the crypto market is notoriously unpredictable, and investors are keenly aware of the potential for sudden shifts.
Balancing Optimism with Caution
While the current trend appears promising, it’s essential for traders and investors to balance optimism with caution. The crypto market is known for its rapid fluctuations, and external factors, such as regulatory changes or macroeconomic events, can influence Bitcoin’s trajectory.
Some analysts argue that Bitcoin’s recent stability above the STH Realized Price might be a harbinger of further gains. However, others caution that the market remains susceptible to unexpected downturns. This balanced perspective underscores the importance of staying informed and vigilant in the ever-dynamic world of cryptocurrency.
In conclusion, the Realized Price of short-term holders serves as a pivotal indicator for Bitcoin’s current trajectory. As long as Bitcoin respects this level, the trend appears constructive. Yet, in a market characterized by uncertainty, investors must remain agile and prepared for potential shifts. As Glassnode’s analysis highlights, understanding investor psychology and key metrics can provide valuable insights into Bitcoin’s ongoing journey.
Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
