Bitcoin’s recent journey toward the $125,000 mark has been as thrilling as a rollercoaster ride, and it appears the cryptocurrency’s next move will be crucial. Over the weekend, Bitcoin prices soared to unprecedented heights, breaching the $125,000 threshold for the first time. This surge was fueled by a combination of factors, including a renewed interest in U.S.-listed spot ETFs amid the U.S. government shutdown and encouraging pro-stimulus remarks from Japan’s newly appointed prime minister. However, things have taken a slightly different turn in the last 24 hours, with Bitcoin prices retreating to $124,000, leaving investors and analysts on edge.
A Crucial Juncture
According to John Glover, Chief Investment Officer at Ledn, Bitcoin is at a significant crossroads. Glover, who accurately predicted Bitcoin’s latest price surge, warns that failing to maintain momentum above the $125,000 resistance could trigger a bear market. He emphasizes that the cryptocurrency’s fate hinges on this critical level. “If we move above $125K, then $145K is expected sometime around the end of the year or early next year. If we reject a couple of attempts at $125K, then there is merit to the argument that we will begin a bear market for BTC,” Glover explained in an email outlining his Elliott wave analysis.
The Bullish Outlook
Despite the looming threat of a downturn, Glover remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s short-term prospects. He believes that a decisive move above the $125,000 mark could pave the way for further gains, potentially driving prices up to $145,000 by the year’s end. Glover is part of the bullish camp that anticipates this upward trajectory. However, he does caution that a bear market might follow a move to $145,000, suggesting that investors should brace for volatility.
The bullish case for Bitcoin looks robust, especially since the cryptocurrency has surpassed the $120,000 mark three times since July. Unlike previous surges that quickly fizzled out in sharp, inverted V-shaped patterns, the recent rally appears more sustainable. Prices continue to hover above $120,000, indicating strong non-institutional demand, as highlighted by Singapore-based QCP Capital in their daily market update. This suggests a higher probability of sustained upward momentum, potentially pushing prices beyond the crucial $125,000 level.
A Balanced Perspective
While the optimism around Bitcoin’s potential rise is palpable, it’s essential to consider the flip side of the coin. The possibility of a bear market looms if Bitcoin fails to break through the $125,000 resistance convincingly. A rejection at this level could lead to a more challenging market environment, testing the resilience of investors and traders.
As with any financial market, Bitcoin is susceptible to external factors. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown and Japan’s new leadership’s pro-stimulus stance have undeniably played a role in Bitcoin’s recent rally. However, these factors can also lead to increased volatility, making it crucial for investors to stay vigilant.
The Road Ahead
So, what does the future hold for Bitcoin? As we approach the end of the year, all eyes will be on whether Bitcoin can maintain its momentum and break decisively above the $125,000 barrier. If it does, the stage could be set for a rally to $145,000, as predicted by Glover and other bullish analysts. On the other hand, if Bitcoin struggles to stay above this critical level, the market may face a significant downturn.
In this unpredictable landscape, investors must weigh the potential rewards against the inherent risks. As Bitcoin continues to capture the world’s attention, the coming weeks will be critical in determining its trajectory.
In the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency, one thing remains certain: volatility is the norm, and adaptability is key. Whether Bitcoin will surge to new heights or face a bear market, only time will tell. For now, the rollercoaster ride continues, and investors are holding on tightly, eager to see where Bitcoin’s next move will take them.
Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
