Bitcoin is once again at a crossroads, testing a critical support zone as September unfolds. Historically, this month has been a period of weakness, but it often sets the stage for a robust Q4 rally. Investors and analysts alike are watching closely to see if this pattern will hold true in 2025.
Testing the Waters: Bitcoin at the Bull Market Support Band
In a recent update on X, cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen highlighted Bitcoin’s touch with the bull market support band right before September started. This level, a sort of financial heartbeat for Bitcoin, has historically been where bulls dig in their heels to maintain market structure. Holding above this band is seen as crucial in keeping bullish sentiment alive.
August proved to be a month of highs, but as the calendar flipped to September, Bitcoin dipped to levels unseen since early August. Cowen’s analysis suggests this might be setting up for a local low in the ongoing market cycle. “The best-case scenario,” Cowen posits, “would be if Bitcoin’s monthly low has already been established on September 1st.” Should this be the case, bulls might regain their footing sooner than later, stabilizing prices around this crucial support band. A stable foundation here could pave the way for another upward trajectory as September progresses. For further insights into potential September price movements, see Will Bitcoin price drop in September?.
Historical Patterns: A Blueprint for Q4?
Cowen’s analysis doesn’t just stop at September. He points to previous bull cycles—in 2013, 2017, 2020, and 2021—where Bitcoin held the 20-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) throughout September. This indicator seems to be a reliable precursor to new highs in the fourth quarter. It’s a historical pattern that traders are eyeing with interest.
However, there’s a caveat. Should Bitcoin falter at the 20W SMA, Cowen advises a shift in focus to the 50W SMA. This level has been a steadfast support throughout the ongoing bull market. Even if short-lived weakness surfaces, this safety net could sustain broader bullish momentum. For a broader perspective on September’s market dynamics, refer to ‘Red September’ Is Coming—Here’s What to Expect From the Bitcoin Market.
Presently, Bitcoin is trading around $111,053, marking a modest uptick of 0.83% over the past 24 hours. With an intraday high of $111,716 and a low of $108,505, the market shows moderate volatility. The 24-hour trading volume, hovering around $73.2 billion, indicates robust market activity, while Bitcoin’s market cap of approximately $2.22 trillion reaffirms its dominance in the crypto sphere.
Looking Forward: A Tentative Optimism
As traders and analysts sift through these patterns and price levels, the big question looms: Will Bitcoin follow its historical script and rally in Q4? There’s cautious optimism, but the market’s inherent unpredictability tempers it. Analysts and traders are keenly aware that while history often rhymes, it doesn’t always repeat.
Bitcoin’s current state—dancing around critical support levels while exhibiting signs of market health—raises intriguing possibilities for the months ahead. Will the bulls seize control and push prices to new heights, or will September’s dip extend into a more prolonged period of caution? Only time will tell, but for now, all eyes are on Bitcoin as it navigates this pivotal moment.
In the grand theater of cryptocurrency, every move is watched, every pattern dissected. As we edge deeper into September, with the weight of historical trends pressing down, the stakes couldn’t be higher. The stage is set, the players are in place—now, we wait to see if Bitcoin will once again defy the odds and surge into the final quarter with renewed vigor.
Source
This article is based on: Bitcoin Battles Key Support: Can September’s Dip Set The Stage For A Q4 Rally?
Further Reading
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Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
