Bitcoin enthusiasts and investors have been on high alert as Ostium Labs, a prominent cryptocurrency research firm, warns that Bitcoin’s bullish momentum could falter if the digital currency dips below the critical $98,000 threshold. This caution, outlined in Ostium’s September 1 Market Outlook report, arrives at a pivotal moment for the market, with Bitcoin hovering around $110,610 today.
The Crucial $98,000 Mark
According to Ostium Labs, maintaining a price above $98,000 is essential for Bitcoin’s continued upward trajectory. “Closing below $98k on this timeframe would turn weekly structure bearish,” the firm stated, highlighting the importance of this level. The research outfit also noted that staying above this line would likely lead to the formation of a higher-low, suggesting further potential for growth. This sentiment echoes concerns from other analysts, as seen in Bitcoin bull market will be ‘over’ if $100K BTC price is lost: Trader.
This advice comes as Bitcoin recently experienced a turbulent August. The cryptocurrency saw its value touch a high of approximately $124,500 before settling near $108,200—close to what was once a resistance level, now turned support. Despite the recent volatility, the analysts at Ostium remain cautiously optimistic, suggesting that the current market indicators do not resemble the 2021 cyclical top.
Key Levels and Market Dynamics
On the monthly chart, the firm sees no immediate signs of a downturn akin to 2021’s peak. While there is some momentum divergence visible in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the Awesome Oscillator remains positive, indicating continued upward momentum. As Ostium puts it, “AO has continued to point towards building momentum throughout the uptrend.”
For the bullish scenario to materialize, Ostium emphasizes the necessity of finding support above the 2025 yearly open at $93,300, ideally much higher, around the July lows at $105,000. If September closes green above the August open at $115,000, it could pave the way for Bitcoin to reach new heights as early as October.
Conversely, a close below $93,300 would bolster the bear case, potentially signaling a shift in market sentiment. The market’s weekly structure remains robust, with the RSI resetting towards 50, a level that supports trend continuation. Ostium anticipates that if Bitcoin can carve out a higher low early in September and regain momentum, a weekly close above $112,000 could lead to testing the August open and possibly hitting $117,500 before the month’s end.
The daily timeframe presents its own challenges. Ostium describes the recent pullback as “orderly,” with supports flipping to resistance. The crucial level here is the $112,000 mark, once a support in early August, now a resistance after last week’s decline. A breakout above this line would suggest a bottoming pattern, but a failed attempt could see prices testing the June open at $104,500, with the 200-day moving average at $101,300 acting as key demand.
Macro Factors and Derivative Insights
The outlook for Bitcoin isn’t just a function of its own market dynamics; macroeconomic factors play a significant role. With a busy week ahead, including ISM data, jobless claims, and the Fed’s Beige Book, Ostium has laid out strategic setups. For those betting on Bitcoin’s rise, signs of exhaustion into support and bullish divergence could signal a buying opportunity. On the flip side, a sharp rise to $112,000 followed by trend exhaustion might present shorting opportunities. This aligns with insights from Bitcoin Bull Market May End Early, Warns Key Indicator, But Flows Continue to Lean Bullish.
In the derivatives market, CoinGlass liquidation heatmaps show dense bands of liquidation above $114,000 and below $120,000, suggesting high activity levels at these points. Ostium’s technical levels align with these concentrations, providing critical insights for traders navigating these choppy waters.
The Dollar’s Role
The report also touches on the broader economic landscape, considering the role of the U.S. dollar index (DXY) in Bitcoin’s fortunes. With DXY around 97.2, Ostium foresees the dollar breaking below 96, possibly reaching 93, which could further support Bitcoin’s price. However, a decisive reclaim of 100 would challenge this bearish outlook for the dollar.
As September unfolds, all eyes will be on Bitcoin’s ability to maintain critical support levels. A dip below $98,000 could spell trouble for its bull run, while reclaiming $112,000 would signal renewed strength. With Bitcoin trading at $110,610 at press time, the next few weeks are poised to be crucial for the world’s leading cryptocurrency. The stakes are high, and traders and investors alike are bracing for what could be a defining period in Bitcoin’s ongoing saga.
Source
This article is based on: The Bitcoin Bull Run Cracks If $98,000 Is Lost, Ostium Labs Warns
Further Reading
Deepen your understanding with these related articles:
- Is the Bitcoin Bull Market Cycle Coming to an End? Analysts Weigh In
- Bitcoin heads toward $100K as US trade deficit, China bank woes raise alarm
- Bitcoin’s Short-Term Fate Hinges On $112,000 Realized Price Level – Details
Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
