Bitcoin’s trajectory could catapult it to $120,000 this year, according to several analysts who point to a convergence of compelling factors. As of June 2025, these elements are driving optimism for another BTC bull run: spot prices, central bank policies, energy market trends, and technical setups.
Bitcoin’s Resilience in Turbulent Times
Bitcoin’s steadfastness during geopolitical tensions has become a hallmark of its appeal. Despite the Iran-Israel conflict and U.S. airstrikes on Iran, Bitcoin prices have largely held above the $100,000 mark. This resilience has been a siren call for investors, inspiring confidence and potentially beckoning a new wave of buyers. A notable crypto trader suggested that the best marketing for any asset is its price, echoing George Soros’ reflexivity theory, where market perceptions and prices create a feedback loop. This sentiment aligns with recent analyses suggesting a Bitcoin price rally to $115K possible as US economic data exceeds expectations.
Interestingly, even brief dips below the $100,000 threshold have been met with eager bids, underscoring a prevalent “buy the dip” mentality. Nicolai Soendergaard, a research analyst at Nansen, observed that exchange outflows suggest both retail and institutional investors are snapping up Bitcoin during these temporary downturns. “In times of global disruption, like wars, we often see sharp dips that rebound, depending on how the situation unfolds,” he explained.
Central Bank Policies: A Potential Catalyst
The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy shifts could also play a pivotal role in Bitcoin’s ascent. Recent discussions among Fed officials hint at a potential rate cut in July, a move that could buoy both stocks and cryptocurrencies. This dovish shift stands in contrast to Chairman Jerome Powell’s data-driven approach, suggesting a growing inclination toward liquidity easing.
Adam Button of ForexLive noted the intriguing transformation of certain Fed officials from hawks to doves, attributing this shift to President Donald Trump’s preference for low interest rates. Michelle Bowman, a Fed Governor, has expressed support for a rate cut, citing the potentially muted impact of tariffs on inflation. Meanwhile, Chairman Powell is set to testify before Congress soon, where he will likely defend the Fed’s independent stance amidst political pressures.
Energy Markets and Technical Momentum
The energy market’s recent unpredictability adds another layer of intrigue. Contrary to expectations that U.S. military actions in Iran would spike oil prices, the market saw a sharp decline. This downturn in crude oil prices, while deflationary, is favorable for central banks wary of inflation from rising oil costs.
James E. Thorne, chief market strategist at Wellington Atlus, quipped on social media about the misjudged fears of oil-driven inflation, highlighting a 15.41% year-over-year drop in crude prices. This deflationary environment could further support a dovish monetary stance, indirectly benefiting Bitcoin.
On the technical front, Bitcoin’s momentum indicators present a bullish picture. The 100-day simple moving average has recently crossed above the 200-day SMA, reinforcing a bullish trend. This “golden crossover” echoes a configuration from last November that propelled Bitcoin from $70,000 to $100,000. This technical optimism is mirrored in traders’ expectations for Bitcoin price targets mushroom as traders bet on $140K+ this bull run.
Looking Ahead: A Cautious Optimism
While these factors collectively bolster a bullish outlook for Bitcoin, uncertainties remain. The interplay of geopolitical tensions, monetary policies, and market dynamics could yield unforeseen consequences. As the market navigates these waters, questions linger about the sustainability of this upward trajectory and whether Bitcoin can indeed reach the much-anticipated $120,000 mark.
In the coming months, investors will closely monitor the Federal Reserve’s moves and geopolitical developments, balancing optimism with caution. As always, Bitcoin’s journey remains as unpredictable as it is fascinating—a testament to its enduring allure in the ever-evolving financial landscape.
Source
This article is based on: Bitcoin Could Spike to $120K, Here Are 4 Factors Boosting the Case for a BTC Bull Run
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Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
