Bitcoin’s September Curse: Traders Brace for a Rocky Ride
In a month notorious for volatility, Bitcoin traders are bracing for what could be another challenging September. Historically, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap has stumbled through nine of the past 14 Septembers, with an average monthly drop of around 12%. This year appears to be no different. As the week kicked off, Bitcoin found itself teetering near $110,000—the weakest level observed in nearly two months. It’s a precarious moment for the crypto market, which has seen its total capitalization dip to a three-week low of $3.74 trillion.
A September to Remember?
Market sentiment is undeniably fragile. Traders are navigating a landscape littered with macroeconomic uncertainties, dwindling volumes, and an ominous history of September slumps. The technical indicators do little to calm nerves either. According to Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, the broader capitalization chart “continues to record a series of lower lows, signaling a downward trend.” Bitcoin’s inability to sustain its position above $112,000 has only added to the anxiety, with Kuptsikevich warning of a potential decline toward the $105,000 mark—a historical support level before the critical $100,000 psychological barrier. As explored in our recent article, the risk of Bitcoin sliding to $100K after a 6% monthly drop is a concern for many traders.
In the backdrop, the crypto fear index has slipped back to 40, its lowest since April, signaling that investor nerves are fraying. This is perhaps unsurprising, given Bitcoin’s past September performances: a near 8% drop in 2017 and a 14% decline in 2019. Even more recently, the token saw significant drawdowns in both 2021 and 2022, a testament to the month’s reputation as a tough period for the market. For a broader perspective, see our coverage on what to expect from the Bitcoin market this September.
Solana’s Surprising Surge
While Bitcoin grapples with its September curse, Solana’s SOL has emerged as a beacon of positivity, leading major gains with a 4% rise. XRP and Cardano’s ADA have also posted modest gains of 1% and 1.5%, respectively. Despite these upward blips, the broader sentiment remains cautious. The crypto community is acutely aware that liquidity drains and macroeconomic jitters often coincide with the end of summer—a trend that seems to be repeating itself in 2025.
According to CryptoQuant data, spot ETFs have now absorbed over 1.3 million BTC, nearly 6% of the total supply. This positions them on par with some of the largest exchanges, a development that underscores the changing landscape of crypto market dynamics. However, the risk remains that key support levels could break before any macroeconomic relief materializes.
ETF Flows and Market Sentiment
The ETF flows are telling a story of their own. While spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. saw net outflows of $440 million last week, Ether ETFs—launched just last year—recorded over $1 billion in inflows. This suggests a rotation of capital rather than outright growth, pointing to a shifting focus within the market. Meanwhile, the upcoming non-farm payrolls data, due this Friday, is expected to reveal just 45,000 new jobs, confirming a slowing U.S. labor market. A disappointing jobs report could strengthen the case for a rate cut from the Federal Reserve in September, potentially flipping market sentiment back to a risk-on stance.
Until then, traders seem to be erring on the side of caution. Options data indicates a robust demand for puts, with a bearish skew dominating the landscape. Kuptsikevich advises intra-day traders to tread carefully, as the market appears to be in a precarious balance.
In this unpredictable environment, the question remains whether Bitcoin’s historical September slump will continue or if a macroeconomic catalyst could provide a much-needed reprieve. As traders navigate these choppy waters, the coming weeks may prove pivotal in shaping the crypto market’s narrative for the rest of the year.
Source
This article is based on: Bitcoin Traders Warn of 12% Monthly Drop as Solana Leads Majors Gains
Further Reading
Deepen your understanding with these related articles:
- Bitcoin traders: BTC must close week above $114K to avoid ‘ugly’ correction
- Bitcoin, Solana Rise as Investors Weigh Nvidia Earnings, Strong GDP Data
- Solana vs. Bitcoin chart points to explosive SOL price breakout to $300
Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
