Bitcoin’s price could be on the brink of another significant move, according to a recent analysis by CoinDesk’s Omkar Godbole. A key technical indicator—the gap between the Bollinger Bands—is showing signs of increasing volatility, potentially heralding a fresh upward thrust for the cryptocurrency. This signal, stemming from the MACD histogram’s positive turn, suggests enhanced market activity and has previously been a precursor to notable bitcoin rallies.
Reading the Tea Leaves: Bollinger Bands & MACD
Bollinger Bands, a favorite tool among traders, are volatility bands plotted two standard deviations away from the 20-week simple moving average. When the gap between these bands widens, it is often a harbinger of increased market activity. The MACD histogram—linked to this gap—has recently turned positive, hinting at a potential surge in bitcoin’s price volatility. This change is noteworthy because, historically, such MACD crossovers have signaled the start of significant bullish trends, like those witnessed in late 2020 and 2024. This aligns with recent observations that Bitcoin’s shrinking supply may trigger a price breakout, adding another layer to the bullish narrative.
“The MACD flipping positive is akin to a storm warning,” says crypto analyst Jamie Douglas. “While it doesn’t guarantee a bull run, it certainly raises the probability of a significant price movement.”
Volatility: Friend or Foe?
Volatility, by its nature, is neutral—neither inherently bullish nor bearish. However, the recent positive MACD crossover aligns with historical patterns that have often preceded bitcoin’s upward movements. This is why traders are on high alert. The current setup in the charts, with the widening Bollinger Bands, could suggest a bullish phase ahead. As explored in our recent coverage, Bitcoin price prepares for volatility as spot supply vanishes, which could further amplify the potential for significant price shifts.
Historically, bitcoin has thrived on volatility. Its meteoric rise in value from mere cents to tens of thousands of dollars is a testament to this. The cryptocurrency’s allure partly lies in its potential for outsized returns, but this comes with equally significant risks. Traders who embrace volatility as an opportunity rather than a threat often find themselves ahead of the curve.
A Look Back at Market Trends
The late 2020 bull run, triggered by institutional adoption and broader acceptance of digital currencies, saw bitcoin’s price skyrocket from around $10,000 to over $40,000 within months. Similarly, the late 2024 rally capitalized on shifting regulatory stances and increasing interest from retail investors. Both instances were marked by positive MACD crossovers, as noted by Godbole, reinforcing the indicator’s credibility.
“Past performance is not always indicative of future results,” notes Sara Kim, a veteran cryptocurrency trader. “But ignoring these signals when they have been so consistently predictive in the past would be remiss.”
The Road Ahead: Cautious Optimism
While the technical indicators paint a promising picture, it’s vital to approach the market with a blend of optimism and caution. The macroeconomic environment—interest rates, inflation, and geopolitical tensions—continues to exert pressure on financial markets globally. Bitcoin, though often seen as a hedge, is not immune to these factors.
Moreover, regulatory developments remain a wild card. As governments worldwide grapple with the challenges of digital currency regulation, any unexpected policy shift could either stifle the momentum or catalyze another surge.
As we move further into June 2025, the crypto community is watching closely. Is this the calm before the storm? Or just another blip on the radar? Only time will tell. For now, traders and investors alike are bracing for what could be a pivotal moment in bitcoin’s ever-evolving journey.
Source
This article is based on: Bitcoin Price Volatility Signal Goes Off – Is a Surge Ahead?
Further Reading
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Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
