Bitcoin finds itself in a delicate dance of volatility, as the cryptocurrency has managed to leap back above the $115,000 mark. This upward movement signals a notable resilience among Bitcoin bulls, who seem to have regained their footing after a tumultuous period of panic selling and fear of a deeper market correction. Despite the cautious market sentiment, there’s a palpable sense of optimism as Bitcoin buyers reclaim lost ground.
Bitcoin Miner Health Signals Neutral-to-Positive Market Backdrop
In the cryptocurrency realm, miner health often serves as a barometer for market conditions. Axel Adler, a prominent analyst, recently highlighted the neutral-to-positive state of Bitcoin’s miner health. He pointed out that Bitcoin’s current price exceeds the last difficulty bottom level, indicating a lack of capitulation among miners. This scenario reduces the pressure from forced sales by weaker mining operations, which tend to add to selling pressure during downturns. As explored in our recent coverage of Bitcoin Miners Weather the Storm: No Capitulation in Sight at 7.4% Price Surge, this resilience is a key factor in the current market dynamics.
Adler drew attention to the “+7.4% BTC price change since the last difficulty bottom” indicator, portraying it as a sign of moderate momentum. Although this metric is a constructive signal, it’s a far cry from the euphoric conditions of past market peaks, where readings soared between +50% and +80%. Looking forward, Adler suggests keeping an eye on a few critical factors: upcoming difficulty adjustments during falling prices, hashprice (or revenue per TH/s), and miner reserves. An increase in selling during weak price action could serve as an early warning of mounting stress.
The takeaway, according to Adler, is that while the miner factor isn’t currently dragging the market down, it’s not acting as a strong bullish driver either. Instead, it provides a steady, supportive backdrop—so long as Bitcoin doesn’t dramatically break above or below the last difficulty bottom level. In this scenario, BTC’s price trajectory will hinge more on demand-side catalysts and broader economic developments than on miner-driven pressures.
BTC Price Analysis: Testing Key Resistance Level
On the technical front, Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart paints a picture of a market attempting to sustain gains after reclaiming the $115,724 support zone. BTC has bounced back from recent lows, climbing above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages. This shift hints at a short-term change in momentum.
Currently, Bitcoin is hovering around $116,585, with immediate resistance looming at $116,600–$116,700. This resistance aligns with the 100-day SMA. A successful breakout above this area could pave the way toward the $118,000–$118,500 region, with the next major resistance level at $122,077, the previous range high.
Yet, the path is fraught with potential pitfalls. Should Bitcoin fail to hold the $115,724 support, it could trigger a pullback toward $114,000, with more robust support around the $112,500 mark. The volume during this rebound has been relatively modest, signaling that bulls need stronger participation to maintain upward momentum.
Even though the recent move above multiple SMAs is a positive short-term sign, Bitcoin remains tethered within the broader range established in July. Without a decisive break above $118K, the market stays in consolidation, vulnerable to reversals if buying pressure wanes. Maintaining support above $115.7K is crucial for bulls aiming to test higher resistance levels in the coming trading sessions. For further insights into the challenges facing Bitcoin, see our analysis of Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Hits All-Time High of 127.6 Trillion.
Background Context
Historically, Bitcoin’s relationship with miner activity has been a significant driver of market dynamics. Real miner capitulation phases occur when the “% BTC price change since last difficulty bottom” metric dips into sustained negative territory, typically between –10% and –30%. During such periods, miners are often compelled to offload their holdings, exacerbating market downturns. However, Bitcoin’s current position—above zero on this indicator—suggests that the market has emerged from significant miner stress, reducing the risk of forced selling and providing a steadier backdrop for price action.
Conclusion
As Bitcoin straddles the line between cautious optimism and potential pitfalls, the future remains uncertain. While the miner health metric provides a supportive backdrop, Bitcoin’s price action will likely rely on broader economic factors and demand-side catalysts. The cryptocurrency market, with its inherent volatility, continues to be a space where cautious optimism must be balanced with an awareness of potential risks. Whether Bitcoin can maintain its upward momentum or will face further challenges remains an open question—one that keeps traders and analysts alike on their toes.
Source
This article is based on: Bitcoin Miners Avoid Forced Selling: BTC Sits 7.4% Above Last Difficulty Bottom
Further Reading
Deepen your understanding with these related articles:
- Bitcoin Miners Bounce Back: MARA, Cipher, and Cango Boost Production in July
- The $3.5B shift: How Bitcoin miners are cashing in on AI
- Whale Who Bet Against XRP Liquidated, Dogecoin Futures on Coinbase Spike 24%, Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Hits ATH – Crypto News Digest
Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
