Bitcoin is facing renewed selling pressure as market sentiment begins to shift. After several weeks of high volatility, analysts are warning that Bitcoin (BTC) could drop below the $110,000 support level if current market dynamics persist. Such a move would mark a critical shift in sentiment, as bullish momentum appears to have weakened in recent days.
Bitcoin Under Pressure: Market Sentiment Shifts
The cryptocurrency market has been a rollercoaster lately, with Bitcoin at the forefront of this ride. After enjoying a period of bullish momentum, the digital currency is now experiencing a downturn that has many traders on edge. Analysts are keeping a close watch on Bitcoin’s price, particularly as it hovers around $112,567—a slight rebound after dipping to intraday lows of approximately $111,135.
The recent rejection from the $117,000 to $118,000 region has left Bitcoin in a precarious position. Immediate support now lies in the $112,000 to $110,000 range, with key resistance at $123,217. The 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs) have flipped into overhead resistance, signaling weakening short-term momentum. Failure to reclaim these levels could lead to a deeper retracement toward the 200-day SMA near $103,869, aligning with a long-term support cluster.
Long-Term Holders Drive Market Pressure
The pressure isn’t just coming from market sentiment but also from the activity of long-term holders (LTHs). Top analyst Darkfost has highlighted a concerning trend among mid-term holders, noting that Bitcoin aged between 6 to 12 months is consistently flowing onto the market. This pattern suggests a shift in sentiment, as these experienced holders usually signal profit-taking or a lack of confidence.
Long-term holders currently control an overwhelming share of the Bitcoin supply, estimated at around 80-85%. This concentration underscores the structural strength of Bitcoin’s investor base. However, when LTHs move coins onto the market, it can have an outsized impact on price dynamics. The Bitcoin Spent Output Bands (SOB) indicator further validates this trend, showing that recent onchain flows align with the activity of these experienced holders.
A Balanced Perspective: Challenges and Opportunities
Despite the near-term challenges, there are some optimistic voices in the market. Many believe that Bitcoin remains resilient at current levels and could stabilize and reclaim higher ground once buying demand returns. If macro conditions or institutional flows provide fresh momentum, the market could see a turnaround.
Institutional accumulation, shrinking exchange reserves, and Bitcoin’s increasingly strong correlation with macro liquidity cycles all provide a foundation for higher valuations once selling pressure eases. The coming weeks will be decisive. If Bitcoin can hold above key liquidity zones and shake off the weight of LTH distribution, it may regain the momentum needed to retest its all-time highs. Conversely, failure to defend critical supports could extend the correction, further testing market confidence.
Short-Term Holders and Market Dynamics
The pressure isn’t only coming from long-term holders. Short-term holders have also capitulated, with 30,000 BTC in realized losses over the past 24 hours. This adds another layer of complexity to the market dynamics, as short-term holders often react more quickly to price changes, contributing to volatility.
Price action shows that buyers are attempting to defend the $112,000 region, which has acted as a strong liquidity zone in recent months. However, repeated tests of this level raise the risk of a breakdown if bullish momentum does not return.
Looking Ahead: The Road to Recovery
The road ahead for Bitcoin is uncertain. While the current selling pressure from long-term holders is causing concern, the broader structural demand for Bitcoin suggests that the long-term trajectory remains intact. The market’s ability to hold above key support levels will be crucial in determining its future direction.
As the market navigates these turbulent times, investors will be keeping a close eye on macroeconomic factors, institutional interest, and onchain activity. The resilience of Bitcoin has been tested before, and many believe it will weather this storm as well.
In conclusion, while Bitcoin faces significant challenges in the short term, the underlying fundamentals remain strong. The coming weeks will be pivotal in determining whether Bitcoin can shake off the current selling pressure and regain its bullish momentum. As always, investors are advised to stay informed and exercise caution in these volatile times.
Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
