Bitcoin remains steadfast above the $104,000 mark, with traders eyeing the latter half of 2025 optimistically. The cryptocurrency market is currently navigating a confluence of macroeconomic factors and geopolitical tensions, which have tempered its momentum but not its potential.
Crypto Markets in Flux
Thursday saw crypto markets take a slight hit, with Bitcoin slipping 1.2% to hover around $104,700 and Ethereum dropping 1.8% to just below $2,860. This dip aligns with broader market unease following the Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain interest rates while emphasizing a vigilant, inflation-sensitive approach. The result? A cautious market atmosphere that reflects both potential and restraint.
Seasonality is at play, with the June-July period historically characterized by lower trading volumes. Singapore-based QCP Capital noted a decrease in Bitcoin’s implied volatility, suggesting that the risk premium associated with recent geopolitical tensions is dissipating. Open interest in Bitcoin and Ethereum perpetuals remains flat, and option markets show a negative skew, with puts trading at a premium—indicating traders are hedging against potential short-term declines. As explored in our recent coverage of Bitcoin price targets, traders are betting on a significant upswing, with targets exceeding $140,000 this bull run.
Joel Kruger, a strategist at LMAX Group, provided insights into the market’s technical landscape. “There’s been no change to the technical picture, which remains supportive of another push to the topside,” Kruger remarked in a communication with CoinDesk. He suggested that Bitcoin’s current consolidation could set the stage for a surge towards $145,000. For Ethereum, clearing the $2,900 mark may pave the way to $3,400.
Regulatory Developments and Institutional Interest
Amidst the caution, there are glimmers of positivity. The U.S. Senate recently passed a framework for stablecoins, a move that underscores a trend towards a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment. This development is significant, as it strengthens the foundation for institutional adoption globally, according to Kruger. “We’re witnessing continued progress that promises greater clarity and a more welcoming environment for institutional crypto adoption,” he noted.
Despite the regulatory progress, the immediate outlook remains cautious. Factors such as month-end options expiration, systematic rebalancing, and a dearth of new catalysts have kept Bitcoin within the $102,000–$108,000 range. Yet, the historical strength of the second half of the year for cryptocurrencies offers a silver lining. Some market participants are already anticipating a rebound. “The worst may be behind us,” Kruger suggested, adding that any upward movement could catch many by surprise. For further insights, see our coverage on how Bitcoin traders now see a $107K retest before new all-time highs.
The Road Ahead
Looking forward, the crypto market’s trajectory seems poised for potential growth, albeit with a few bumps along the way. The current lull appears to be a temporary pause rather than a prolonged downturn, with traders and analysts keeping a close eye on both macroeconomic indicators and regulatory shifts.
As the dust settles from recent market jitters, the focus will likely shift to how cryptocurrencies navigate the evolving landscape. Will Bitcoin break through its current ceiling and venture towards new heights? Or will external pressures continue to exert a gravitational pull?
For now, the market remains in a state of cautious optimism—bracing for whatever comes next, yet ready to seize the opportunities that lie ahead. As the second half of 2025 unfolds, the cryptocurrency world watches with bated breath, eager to see if the anticipated bullish momentum will indeed materialize.
Source
This article is based on: Bitcoin Steady Above $104K as Traders Eye Historically Bullish Second Half
Further Reading
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Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
