Bitcoin investors are re-evaluating their expectations as a staggering 88% of the cryptocurrency’s supply currently sits in profit, according to recent data from Glassnode. This development, emerging on May 6, 2025, suggests a significant shift in market dynamics, with profitability rebounding from a long-term average of 75%. The concentrated losses are now predominantly among those who bought Bitcoin in the $95,000 to $100,000 range, marking a notable reset in investor sentiment.
Profitability Surge and Investor Sentiment
Bitcoin’s price recovery, notably from its cumulative long-term mean, signals a pivotal shift in the market. In August 2024, Bitcoin’s percentage in profit retested the 75% mean at around $60,000, which indicated a potential structural bottom in the $75,000–$95,000 range. This aligns with market conditions observed in the third quarter of 2024 and suggests a more stable foundation for future growth. As explored in our recent coverage of Bitcoin’s surge past $94,000 amidst growing institutional interest, market optimism continues to play a crucial role in this recovery.
Axel Adler Jr., a Bitcoin researcher, commented on the evolving market environment: “The total exchange flow to network activity ratio has decreased by 1.5x since Bitcoin’s all-time high, confirming that the current growth phase is more organic.” This reduction in exchange inflows, coupled with high profitability, indicates a diminished selling pressure from holders, suggesting a more optimistic investor mindset within the $75,000 to $95,000 bracket.
Analyzing the Metrics
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio—a key indicator of market sentiment—has returned to its long-term mean of 1.74. Historically, this level has served as a support zone since January 2024, during consolidation phases. It signals a cooling of unrealized gains and lays a potential groundwork for future bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio remains neutral at 0.5, with Bitcoin priced at $94,400, contrasting its previous overbought status in February 2025.
This shift in metrics and holder behavior suggests that the current cohort of profitable investors may be less inclined to sell at these levels, further strengthening the bullish case for Bitcoin’s present market structure. The decreased urgency in selling—evidenced by the low exchange inflows—reinforces a more stable market environment, unlike previous price peaks marked by high selling activity. For a deeper understanding of the market’s resilience, see our analysis of Bitcoin surpassing $95K amid resilient U.S. stocks.
Market Implications and Future Outlook
As Bitcoin continues to navigate these evolving dynamics, the implications for the broader cryptocurrency market are significant. The current price range is perceived as undervalued by many investors, who see it as an opportunity for accumulation rather than an exit point. This sentiment aligns with the broader bullish outlook that has been building since early 2024.
However, questions remain about whether this trend can sustain itself amidst external economic pressures and potential regulatory developments. The persistent profitability and reduced exchange flows suggest a market in consolidation, yet the path forward may hinge on how macroeconomic factors and investor confidence play out in the coming months.
In this ever-fluctuating landscape, Bitcoin’s ability to maintain its structural integrity will be crucial. As the market approaches June 2025, all eyes will be on how these trends evolve and whether the cryptocurrency can leverage its current momentum to achieve new heights. The narrative of Bitcoin as a stable investment asset continues to unfold, offering both opportunities and challenges for investors navigating these uncharted waters.
Source
This article is based on: Bitcoin investors’ expectations evolve as 88% of BTC supply is in profit
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Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
