Bitcoin is currently treading water, hovering in a range between $110,000 and $120,000, even as gold and U.S. equities flirt with record highs. This stagnation in Bitcoin’s price comes amid a wave of selling pressure led by major holders, often referred to as “whales,” who are offloading their holdings in significant amounts. According to data from Glassnode, which provides insights into cryptocurrency market trends, selling pressure is evident across all wallet groups, from small holders to the largest whales.
Unpacking the Accumulation Trend Score
Glassnode’s Accumulation Trend Score offers a window into the current market dynamics by measuring the relative strength of accumulation among different wallet sizes based on recent coin acquisitions. The score ranges from 0 to 1, with a value closer to 1 indicating strong accumulation and closer to 0 suggesting distribution or selling. Currently, the score leans heavily towards distribution, signaling that wallets across the board are shedding Bitcoin rather than hoarding it.
Among the most striking trends is the behavior of the largest whales, those holding over 10,000 BTC. These entities are exhibiting some of the most aggressive selling seen in the past year, significantly influencing the market. This shift suggests that even the most deep-pocketed investors are taking a cautious stance, perhaps cashing in on profits after Bitcoin’s substantial price recovery from its previous lows.
Shifts in Long-Term Holder Supply
The selling pressure is not limited to whales. Long-term holders, who have traditionally been the bedrock of Bitcoin’s stability, are also participating in the current sell-off. The percentage of Bitcoin’s circulating supply that has remained unmoved for at least one year has dropped sharply from 70% to 60%. This decline marks a significant shift from the peak in November 2023, when Bitcoin was trading around $40,000.
Moreover, holders who have maintained their positions for over two years are also reducing their stakes. Their share of the supply has decreased from 57% to 52%. These trends indicate that investors who accumulated Bitcoin during the bear market lows of 2022, when prices plummeted to $15,500, are now opting to realize gains as Bitcoin recovers.
The Resilience of the Most Patient Investors
While the trend of selling is pervasive, it’s not universal. Investors who have held Bitcoin for over five years have remained largely unfazed by the current market dynamics. This cohort’s steadfastness suggests a long-term belief in Bitcoin’s potential and resilience to short-term market fluctuations. Their continued holding reflects a strategic decision to ride out current volatility, potentially awaiting even higher price thresholds before considering selling.
Potential Implications and Market Sentiment
The ongoing sell-off among various investor cohorts could have multiple implications for Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory. On one hand, the realization of profits by long-term holders and whales may exert downward pressure on prices, keeping Bitcoin within its current range. On the other hand, the market’s ability to absorb this selling while maintaining a price range above $110,000 indicates underlying strength.
This mixed sentiment is further complicated by external factors such as developments in financial products linked to Bitcoin. For instance, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF has been a focal point for market observers. Despite its launch, bearish sentiment in the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has remained strong for two consecutive months, indicating skepticism about Bitcoin’s near-term prospects.
Looking Forward
As Bitcoin navigates these turbulent waters, the actions of its major holders will continue to be a critical factor in determining its price trajectory. The current distribution trend among whales and long-term holders suggests a cautious market, with investors seeking to lock in profits amid uncertainty.
However, the resilience of the most patient investors offers a glimmer of hope for Bitcoin bulls, suggesting that confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition remains intact. As the market digests these dynamics, all eyes will be on whether Bitcoin can break out of its current range and chart a new course in the coming months.
Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
