Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have plummeted by over 90% in recent weeks, dropping from a substantial $3 billion in late April to a meager $228 million this week. This sharp decline, occurring as markets grapple with fluctuating sentiments, has rekindled discussions on the intricate relationship between Bitcoin’s price movements and ETF inflows.
ETF Inflows and Market Movements
Historically, robust ETF inflows have been seen as precursors to Bitcoin rallies. For example, from February to mid-March 2024, spot ETFs recorded a staggering $11.39 billion in net inflows, coinciding with a 57% surge in Bitcoin’s price. Yet, intriguingly, despite a hefty $4.8 billion in the last two weeks of that period, the momentum didn’t translate into further price elevation. Fast forward to late 2024, when a similar pattern unfolded: $16.8 billion in inflows over nine weeks spurred a 66% rally, only for Bitcoin’s price to dip by 9% when the inflows slowed.
The narrative took another twist in early 2025. Inflows of $3.8 billion over just two weeks in January pushed Bitcoin to a new all-time high of $110,000. However, the celebration was short-lived, with prices slipping 4.8% soon after. More recently, in the second quarter of 2025, a $5.8 billion influx bolstered a 22% rally, yet Bitcoin had already shown an 8% gain in the weeks preceding this surge, hinting that other factors might be at play. As explored in our recent article on Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust dominance, the trust continues to play a significant role in ETF revenue, impacting market dynamics.
Here’s the catch: while the data from Q3 2024 and Q2 2025 suggest that strong inflows do fuel rallies, other periods, like Q1 2024 and Q1 2025, reveal that prices can stagnate or even fall despite significant inflows. This inconsistency raises eyebrows about the assumed correlation between ETF activities and Bitcoin’s price trajectory.
The Role of Bitcoin Whales
While the current ETF inflows point toward a potential bearish shift, the activity of Bitcoin whales might suggest otherwise. According to Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, Bitcoin is experiencing short-term selling pressure as the Buy/Sell Pressure Delta has turned negative. Whales have been offloading BTC between $105,000 and $100,000—a range Wedson considers perilous. This bearish move, characterized by a negative cumulative volume delta, indicates short-term selling pressure.
Yet, this isn’t the whole story. Long-term buying pressure remains robust, implying that the recent dip could be a temporary correction rather than a trend reversal. Data from CryptoQuant supports this view, showing that whales are taking fewer profits now compared to previous price peaks. Anonymous analyst Blitzz Trading remarked, “Compared to previous rallies, we can see that whales have taken significantly less profit during this recent surge. This could indicate that the upward trend may continue. This chart should be monitored closely.”
Looking Ahead
So, where does this leave us? The current market dynamics underscore a complex interplay between ETF inflows and whale activity. While the drop in ETF inflows might suggest an imminent correction, the sustained accumulation by whales paints a more bullish picture. As we venture further into 2025, the market will be closely watching whether Bitcoin can defy the historical trend and continue its upward trajectory—or if the scales will tip toward a downturn. For insights into potential future trends, see our coverage on Bitcoin ETFs and government adoption driving BTC to $1M by 2029.
In this ever-volatile landscape, one thing remains certain: the cryptocurrency market is driven by myriad forces, and predicting its course requires a keen eye on both the data and the broader economic context. Whether you’re a trader, an analyst, or just a curious observer, the coming months promise to be anything but dull.
Source
This article is based on: Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows fall, but BTC whale activity points to bull market acceleration
Further Reading
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Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
