Bitcoin’s price has tumbled below the $104,000 threshold, marking a significant moment in the cryptocurrency market as retail investor sentiment harks back to the fraught days of April 2025. The latest CoinDesk Research analysis shows Bitcoin hovering around $103,700 after a notably turbulent 24-hour period, during which it dipped to $103,400 before clawing back some ground.
Retail Sentiment Hits New Lows
The mood among retail investors is undeniably grim. According to a recent analysis by Santiment, a crypto analytics firm, the ratio of bullish to bearish commentary has plummeted to 1.03 to 1, reaching levels not seen since the so-called Liberation Day tariffs were announced by former President Donald Trump. That event in April triggered widespread market anxiety, a mood that seems eerily familiar to the current atmosphere.
Interestingly, Santiment hints at a potential contrarian opportunity. Historically, when retail sentiment soured to such an extent, Bitcoin often rebounded as large investors seized the chance to accumulate at discounted prices. As Santiment notes, the pessimism seen now could be a sign that a price recovery might be on the horizon. This aligns with observations from Bitcoin Steady Above $104K as Traders Eye Historically Bullish Second Half, which suggests a potential upward trend in the latter part of the year.
Macro Pressures and Market Dynamics
Beyond investor sentiment, broader macroeconomic factors are weighing heavily on Bitcoin. The Federal Reserve’s recent decision to maintain interest rates has contributed to Bitcoin’s narrow trading band of $100,000 to $110,000 over the past month. This decision, coupled with ongoing geopolitical tensions, has only added to the market’s uncertainty.
In the derivatives market, there’s a noticeable trend of deleveraging, with Binance’s on-chain metrics showing declining open interest. This suggests traders are pulling back from leveraged positions, possibly due to the murky market outlook. Despite this, whale wallets continue to grow, with large holders accumulating since 2023, demonstrating a long-term bullish stance that contrasts with the short-term skittishness. For further insights, see Bitcoin traders now see $107K retest before new all-time highs, which explores potential price targets and market sentiment.
Technical Insights
Recent technical movements have been telling. BTC-USD experienced a nearly 4% swing within a day, trading between $106,552.98 and $102,411.01. A sharp decline was observed between 14:00 and 17:00 UTC, pushing prices below $104,000 and creating a resistance level at $106,000 on higher-than-usual volume.
Support levels emerged between $103,000 and $103,500, where prices consolidated amid declining volume during the session’s final hours. Notably, a V-shaped recovery pattern formed late in the day, with Bitcoin bouncing from $103,363 to $103,618, establishing a temporary floor around $103,500. While short-term momentum indicators showed signs of recovery, the market’s ability to sustain this rebound remains in question.
Looking Forward
As Bitcoin navigates these choppy waters, the pressing question is whether this bout of pessimism will indeed herald a turnaround. The juxtaposition of retail fear and whale accumulation paints a complex picture. Will large players continue to drive the market, or will retail sentiment shift, bringing about a new wave of enthusiasm?
For now, the market remains on tenterhooks, with investors keeping a keen eye on both macroeconomic developments and on-chain metrics. As we move deeper into June, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve’s next moves and how geopolitical events unfold. With Bitcoin’s price action intertwined with these broader narratives, the coming weeks promise to be critical in determining the market’s direction.
Source
This article is based on: Bitcoin Falls Below $104K as Retail Investor Sentiment Returns to Liberation Day Levels
Further Reading
Deepen your understanding with these related articles:
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- Bitcoin Steadies Near $110K as Traders Await Inflation Data, Fed Signals
- Bitcoin must avoid sub-$100K wick as traders digest 55% China tariffs
Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
