Bitcoin is projected to skyrocket to $160,000 by the end of this year—if, and only if, Treasury firms can hold their ground, according to a fresh study by analysts Ben Harvey and Will Clemente III. Commissioned by market maker Keyrock, the report delves into the intricate financial backbones of Bitcoin Treasury Companies (BTC-TCs) and their market impact, with Strategy (previously known as MicroStrategy) leading the charge.
The Role of Bitcoin Treasury Firms
The report highlights a staggering statistic: BTC-TCs have amassed a total of 725,000 BTC, which accounts for approximately 3.64% of the entire Bitcoin supply. Strategy alone, with a breathtaking 597,000 BTC, is the most significant player, with other firms like Marathon Digital and Metaplanet hot on its heels. This collective hoarding surpasses U.S. spot-ETF holdings by over 50%. As explored in Bitcoin treasury companies acquire record 159,107 BTC in Q2, this trend of aggressive accumulation has been a key driver in the market dynamics.
Keyrock’s bullish scenario suggests there’s a 30% chance Bitcoin will surge beyond $160,000 by December 31. This hinges on steady global liquidity and increased institutional demand, all while BTC-TC equities maintain an average premium of 73% over the dollar value of their Bitcoin holdings. This premium allows firms to issue new shares, convert sentiment into fresh BTC, and pay off the $33.7 billion in debts and preferred stocks accumulated in their buying spree.
Strategy exemplifies the reflexive cycle better than any other. Since August 2020, Michael Saylor has driven Bitcoin-per-share (BPS) up by an impressive eleven-fold, an annualized growth rate of 63%. The authors argue that holding Strategy shares could be more beneficial than holding spot BTC, assuming the equity premium remains robust.
Debt Maturities and the Risk of Dilution
Debt maturities loom like a storm cloud on the horizon. BTC-TCs face convertible note deadlines between 2027 and 2028. Strategy alone accounts for $8.2 billion of the sector’s $9.5 billion in debt, with Marathon trailing at $1.3 billion. Although these instruments carry low coupons, a significant Bitcoin decline could force firms to repay in cash or refinance under less favorable terms.
The report divides BTC-TCs into two camps: cash-flow-positive entities like Metaplanet, CoinShares, and Boyaa Interactive, which have a sustainable cushion, and capital-reliant firms like Marathon and Nakamoto that might face dilution just to remain solvent. If premiums shrink, these companies could be forced to sell Bitcoin, undermining their entire raison d’être. This scenario is further elaborated in Without Operational Alpha, Bitcoin Treasury Company Premiums Will Collapse, which discusses the potential vulnerabilities these firms face.
Keyrock’s base scenario, deemed most probable, positions Bitcoin at $135,000 by year’s end, with NAV premiums stabilizing between 30% and 60%. Here, well-managed treasuries may still outperform spot markets, but the leverage trade won’t shine as brightly. The worst-case scenario imagines a 20% Bitcoin decline coupled with a flood of new treasury listings, eradicating premiums and closing refinancing doors.
The Road Ahead
Harvey and Clemente do not dismiss the BTC-TC model outright. Instead, they describe it as a high-beta overlay that magnifies both the potential gains and the solvency risks of Bitcoin itself. They credit Michael Saylor’s “Bitcoin yield” thesis—using premium-funded share issuance to compound coin holdings—but stress that it depends on a fragile balance of bullish sentiment, cheap capital, and precise execution.
“The premium to NAV is of the utmost importance here,” the report concludes, emphasizing that without a core operating business to cover debts, BTC-TCs remain vulnerable. The path to $160,000 isn’t merely about hash rates or macro trends but rather the continued faith of equity investors willing to pay a premium for embedded BTC.
As of now, the Bitcoin market sits in a precarious balance. BTC is trading at $117,788, and the year-end fireworks seem tantalizingly close, yet depend entirely on investor sentiment. Hold the line, and the possibilities remain endless; falter, and the house of cards could tumble before the New Year rings in.
Source
This article is based on: Research Predicts $160,000 Bitcoin By EOY—If Treasury Firms Hold
Further Reading
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Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
