Bitcoin’s recent bounce from a low of $107,200 has rekindled discussions about whether the market has set its local bottom, poised for a potential rally. Independent analyst Astronomer, known for his precise market predictions, argues there’s a “90%+” chance that the bottom is indeed in, citing a mix of price structures and his unique “FOMC reversal confluence” framework.
A Calculated Call
Astronomer, who gained attention for accurately predicting the short-term bearish trend from $123,000 down to the $110,000–$111,000 range, made a pivotal shift to a bullish stance as his target was met in late August. “As if the confluences of my confidence in the bottom being in the $110k area at the end of August weren’t strong enough, there now is another confluence lining up,” he commented.
At the core of his prediction is the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting cycle, which he claims historically acts as a pivot point for Bitcoin trends. The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for September 18, and Astronomer believes the downtrend has already run its course ahead of this event. He suggests that market insiders and major players typically anticipate and set the post-FOMC direction before retail sentiment catches up.
Skepticism and Criticism
While Astronomer’s analysis is compelling, it contrasts sharply with the broader crypto commentary, where many influencers predict further declines, dubbing this month a “red September.” Astronomer dismisses these forecasts as “utter nonsense,” arguing they’re based on superficial seasonality rather than nuanced market cycles.
“Every time it does work, it plants its bottom before the actual meeting to front-run the anticipation,” he wrote. He believes that depending on generic warnings preceding central bank events overlooks significant structural changes.
The Evidence So Far
Since Astronomer’s shift to a bullish position at $110,000, Bitcoin has climbed to over $115,000, prompting him to declare September’s bearish expectations invalid. He points out that September opened at $108,299 and has since moved higher, placing the month within the upper historical quartile for positive performance.
Astronomer argues that the notion of September being a weak month for Bitcoin is outdated, pointing to the last two years when September was actually positive. “A certain month indeed doesn’t have to be green. ‘Seasonality’ is just a cookie-cutter version of properly using cycles,” he explained.
A Balanced Approach
Despite his strong confidence, Astronomer advises caution and disciplined risk management. “Of course, I could always be wrong, although it has been a long time we lost a trade, never go all in. Take a decent size risk and sleep sound,” he stated, emphasizing the importance of not overcommitting to any single market prediction.
With Bitcoin holding steady above $115,000 and the FOMC meeting just days away, the market may soon deliver its verdict on whether a sustainable bottom has indeed formed. If Astronomer’s analysis holds true, we could witness a significant rally, defying the skeptics’ expectations of a downturn.
Looking Ahead
As the cryptocurrency market grapples with diverse opinions and predictions, the upcoming FOMC meeting is poised to be a critical juncture. Astronomer’s confidence in a market reversal could be bolstered or challenged based on how Bitcoin reacts post-meeting. Regardless of the outcome, his approach underscores the importance of blending technical analysis with broader economic indicators to form a comprehensive market view.
For traders and investors, the lesson is clear: while historical patterns and expert analyses provide valuable insights, the unpredictable nature of the crypto market demands a balanced approach, combining optimism with caution. As September progresses, all eyes will be on Bitcoin’s performance, testing the validity of Astronomer’s bold prediction.
Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
