Bitcoin’s recent price movements have captivated the cryptocurrency community, as it hovers just above the $115,000 mark in the Asian markets this Tuesday. This slight dip comes after a promising start to the week, driven by inflows into U.S. spot ETFs and a hopeful outlook on potential Federal Reserve rate cuts next week. Yet, as the market debates whether this recovery is on solid ground or merely a mirage, traders and analysts find themselves at a crossroads.
The Fragility Argument
Glassnode, a well-regarded blockchain data analytics firm, provides a sobering perspective on the current Bitcoin rally. According to their latest weekly report, the excitement around ETFs and futures could be masking an underlying weakness in the spot market. Despite a staggering 200% surge in ETF inflows last week and a notable increase in futures open interest, the firm warns that the buying conviction isn’t as robust as it appears.
They highlight several concerning factors: funding rates have softened, profit-taking is gaining momentum, with over 92% of the supply currently in profit, and options traders have reduced their downside hedges. This reduction in hedges has led to lower volatility spreads, which, according to Glassnode, could expose the market to significant risks if sentiment shifts. The takeaway? While ETFs and futures are driving the current rally, without stronger spot market flows, Bitcoin’s position remains precarious.
The Momentum Perspective
Contrasting sharply with Glassnode’s cautious stance, Singapore-based trading desk QCP offers a more optimistic view. They interpret the recent CPI data as indicative of tariff-led inflation without any major surprises, suggesting that Bitcoin is “back on track.” QCP points to five consecutive days of substantial Bitcoin ETF inflows, alongside Ethereum’s largest inflow in two weeks, and strength in altcoins like XRP and SOL as positive indicators.
QCP’s argument is that traders are viewing regulatory delays not as rejections but as mere formalities on the path to approval. The Altcoin Season Index, which has reached a 90-day high, supports this sentiment, suggesting a readiness for rotation into higher-beta assets. For QCP, Bitcoin’s consolidation above $115,000 is not just a milestone but a potential springboard for broader market gains.
A Market at Crossroads
The divide between Glassnode and QCP underscores the complexity of Bitcoin’s current price range near $115,000–$116,000. For Glassnode, it’s a zone of fragile optimism, while for QCP, it’s an area of growing momentum. The truth may ultimately hinge on whether the inflows into ETFs can continue to counteract the wave of profit-taking in the coming weeks.
Broader Market Movements
Amidst the Bitcoin debate, the wider market landscape is also experiencing notable shifts. Ethereum (ETH) is trading near $4,500, navigating a critical resistance band. The upward momentum in ETH is bolstered by renewed institutional demand, a tightening supply due to exchange outflows, and favorable technical indicators.
Meanwhile, gold remains near record highs, buoyed by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, inflation risks, and a consistent demand for safe-haven assets. However, its gains are somewhat restrained by profit-taking and a strengthening U.S. dollar.
In equities, Japan’s Nikkei 225 has surged past 45,000 for the first time, leading gains in the Asia-Pacific region. This rally is driven by positive U.S.-China trade discussions and a new TikTok divestment framework that has lifted market sentiment. Over in the U.S., the S&P 500 has also seen an uptick, closing above 6,600 for the first time, supported by similar trade optimism and anticipation of upcoming Fed policy decisions.
Retail and Institutional Dynamics
Despite the ongoing crypto rally, retail participation seems to be lagging, as evidenced by Coinbase’s App Store ranking, which indicates that retail investors remain cautious. On the institutional front, Robinhood is expanding its reach into private equity tokens with a new venture capital fund, signaling continued interest in the broader crypto and blockchain space.
Adding another layer to the institutional story, a recent strategy has seen an addition of $60 million to Bitcoin’s treasury in what is described as the smallest buy in a month, highlighting a cautious yet ongoing commitment to Bitcoin among major players.
As the crypto market navigates these turbulent waters, the coming weeks will likely provide further clarity on whether Bitcoin is indeed on a path to sustained recovery or if the current optimism is built on shaky foundations. The interplay between ETF inflows, market sentiment, and regulatory developments will be pivotal in shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory as we move forward.
Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
