Bitcoin is on the verge of a ‘golden cross,’ a technical indicator that could herald significant price movements. By the end of May, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is poised to rise above the 200-day SMA, a pattern that historically precedes substantial rallies. This event highlights the bullish sentiment sweeping the cryptocurrency market as of May 20, 2025.
Historical Precedents and Market Dynamics
Golden crosses aren’t just esoteric jargon; they have historically led to impressive price surges for Bitcoin. Consider October 2023, when a similar crossover triggered a 45% rally, fueled by the excitement surrounding Bitcoin ETFs. Go back further to September 2021, and you’ll find a 50% increase in Bitcoin’s value following another such instance. This time, however, the backdrop is slightly different. Rising M2 money supply and reduced trade tensions between the U.S. and China have enhanced the bullish outlook, according to Michaël van de Poppe, a renowned market analyst.
Yet, not all golden crosses spell a guaranteed bull run. February 2020 serves as a stark reminder when a similar signal was followed by a drastic 62% nosedive, courtesy of the global turmoil induced by COVID-19 lockdowns.
Mixed Signals: Bullish Sentiment vs. Bearish Divergence
Despite the promising golden cross, traders are eyeing the charts with a measure of caution. Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) recently spiked above 70, signaling an overbought condition. This could indicate a potential pullback before any significant upward momentum. As of today, Bitcoin’s price might retreat to its SMA supports in the $92,400-$95,000 range, according to market data from TradingView. This aligns with recent developments where Bitcoin Surges Past $94,000 as Institutional Interest and Market Optimism Grow.
Adding to the complexity is a growing bearish divergence between Bitcoin’s climbing price and its declining RSI. This divergence raises the specter of short-term downside risks, balancing the scales of market optimism and skepticism. Still, some analysts are betting on Bitcoin reaching new heights—potentially rallying toward $150,000 in the coming months, though these forecasts come with the usual caveats of market unpredictability. For more insights on market sentiment, see our coverage of how Bitcoin Surpasses $95K Amid Resilient U.S. Stocks, Analysts Voice Concerns Over Market Perception.
The Road Ahead: Cautious Optimism
As Bitcoin approaches this golden cross, the cryptocurrency community is abuzz with anticipation. However, seasoned traders know better than to take such signals at face value. “Historical patterns are useful, but they’re not surefire predictors,” notes Benjamin Cowen, a market strategist who emphasizes the need to consider broader technical and macroeconomic factors.
In the volatile world of cryptocurrencies, nothing is ever set in stone. Rising M2 supplies and easing geopolitical tensions indeed present a conducive environment for growth. Yet, as the golden cross looms, the market is left to grapple with the age-old question: Will history repeat itself, or will unexpected developments steer Bitcoin in a different direction?
In the coming weeks, eyes will be on Bitcoin as it navigates these turbulent waters. Will the golden cross live up to its gilded reputation, or will caution prove the better part of valor? Only time will tell.
Source
This article is based on: Bitcoin is signaling a golden cross — What does it mean for BTC price?
Further Reading
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Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
