Bitcoin’s bullish momentum seems to have hit a speed bump, as ARK Invest’s latest Bitcoin Monthly report reveals a modest 2.55% price increase in June, leaving the cryptocurrency to hover below its May zenith of $112,000. This stagnation paints a picture of consolidation in the market, hinting at a potential pause in the recent bull run. For further insights into why Bitcoin struggles to break its all-time highs, see BTC analysts’ explanations.
Long-Term Holders in the Spotlight
What’s catching the eye of analysts is the behavior of long-term holders (LTHs). These seasoned investors now clutch a whopping 74% of the total bitcoin supply—a milestone not reached in 15 years. This statistic underscores a robust conviction among veteran traders, despite a visible slowdown in new buyer influx. “The resilience of long-term holders is remarkable,” noted Max Greenfield, a crypto market analyst at Digital Frontier. “It suggests that while short-term traders might be taking a breather, the die-hard believers are doubling down.”
Yet, alongside this steadfastness, the report highlights a decline in on-chain capital flows during Q2, as seen through the lens of the Market-Value-to-Realized-Value (MVRV) momentum metric. It’s a signal that market enthusiasm might be cooling—potentially altering the sentiment landscape. This aligns with recent observations that Bitcoin lacks ‘sustained momentum’ for new highs as traders remain hesitant.
Dollar Dynamics and Inflation Impacts
Zooming out to the broader economic canvas, the U.S. dollar continues its upward march, as indicated by the Fed’s Nominal Broad Trade Weighted Dollar Index. This climb seems to counter the prevailing narrative of dollar debasement, which has historically fueled long-term bullish sentiment in crypto circles. According to Jennifer Marks, an economist with CryptoEconomix, “The dollar’s strength challenges the idea of bitcoin as a safe haven against currency devaluation. It raises questions about where bitcoin fits in a strong-dollar environment.”
Inflation, meanwhile, is showing signs of cooling. This development is intriguing for bitcoin enthusiasts, as it potentially undermines the cryptocurrency’s traditional allure as an inflation hedge. On the other hand, lower inflation could pave the way for decreased federal funding rates—a scenario that generally bodes well for risk-on assets, including tech stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Housing Woes: A Broader Economic Indicator?
Adding another layer to the complex economic tapestry, the report points to a sagging housing market. There’s an apparent disconnect between high homeowner expectations and a precipitous drop in home sales. This divergence could signal underlying strains in consumer confidence, which might ripple across other economic sectors. “A shaky housing market often reflects deeper economic uncertainties,” remarked Sarah Lane, a financial strategist. “Investors should keep an eye on how this plays out, as it could have cascading effects on broader market behavior.”
So, what does all this mean for Bitcoin moving forward? As the summer of 2025 unfolds, the cryptocurrency world finds itself at a crossroads. The unwavering stance of long-term holders provides a foundation of strength, yet the broader economic signals—dollar dynamics, inflation trends, and housing market fragility—pose questions about the sustainability of Bitcoin’s current trajectory. As ever, the crypto market remains a complex interplay of forces, both predictable and unforeseen. For now, all eyes will be on how these influences converge, with investors poised for the next chapter in Bitcoin’s volatile saga.
Source
This article is based on: Cathie Wood’s ARK: Bitcoin’s Bullish Momentum Slows as Long-Term Holder Stacks Hit Record
Further Reading
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Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
