The altcoin market is teetering on the edge of what some analysts believe could be its most significant rally since the explosive gains of 2017. As of Q2 2025, the total market cap of altcoins—excluding Ethereum (ETH)—has swelled by $126 billion, sparking a wave of speculation about a potential “altseason.”
Signs of a Brewing Altseason
Crypto analyst Javon Marks has been vocal about the potential for a powerful altcoin surge. In a recent post on X, Marks highlighted the TOTAL3 index (which represents the total market cap of altcoins excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) and its relationship with the US money supply. This chart suggests that altcoins are gaining traction, reflecting increased investor interest and capital inflow. Marks noted, “Altcoins have bounced off of the breakout retest against the US money supply and can deliver one of their most powerful runs since 2017!”
Adding to the excitement, an anonymous trader known as Moustache pointed to a bullish inverse head-and-shoulders pattern in the TOTAL3 chart. This pattern, noted for indicating potential trend reversals, mirrored a similar setup from the 2021 altcoin season when altcoins surged significantly. Moustache believes this could signal “much higher levels” for altcoins in the near future.
But here’s the catch: while these technical indicators suggest a rally, the broader market sentiment remains mixed.
Diverging Views on Altcoin Potential
Not everyone is convinced that the stars are aligning for altcoins just yet. Technical analyst Crypto Scient has urged caution, pointing out that the recent uptick in the altcoin market cap hasn’t yet translated into a long-term bullish trend. The TOTAL2 index, which includes both Bitcoin and altcoins, hit resistance at $1.25 trillion and remains in a bearish posture. “Since both BTC and TOTAL are near the resistance zone and TOTAL2 still has some room, I am inclined to believe that we are distributing,” Crypto Scient explained.
Similarly, Crypto commentator DonaXBT argues that a breakdown in Bitcoin’s dominance is crucial for altcoins to truly take off. Currently, Bitcoin dominates over 60% of the market, a figure that has stayed robust. For altcoins to gain substantial ground, a decline in this dominance—potentially to the 56-58% range—might be necessary. This sentiment echoes the growing interest in Ethereum, as detailed in our recent coverage of Ethereum bulls showing interest as traders’ confidence in ETH’s $1.8K level improves.
Trading Volumes and Market Sentiment
Despite the buzz, altcoin spot trading volumes remain relatively muted, hovering between $3 billion and $5 billion per day. This is a drop from the $8 billion to $12 billion daily averages seen in the final quarter of 2024, according to data from CryptoQuant. Yet, some market watchers view this as the calm before the storm, a precursor to significant growth once volumes pick up.
The Altcoin Season Index, currently sitting at 24, suggests that we are still in a period of Bitcoin dominance. Historically, such an index level signals a Bitcoin-focused market, but as the index rises above 30-40, it often preludes a shift towards altcoins, driven by capital rotation from Bitcoin. This potential shift is reminiscent of the optimism surrounding Litecoin’s recent surge, as discussed in our analysis of Litecoin’s 7% surge amid SEC’s likely approval of a Spot ETF.
The Road Ahead
With all eyes on these developing trends, the coming months could be pivotal for altcoins. If Bitcoin’s dominance begins to wane and trading volumes increase, we might witness the long-anticipated altseason many have been predicting. However, uncertainties remain, and investors are advised to tread carefully in this volatile landscape.
As we move further into 2025, the altcoin market‘s trajectory will likely depend on a confluence of technical signals, trading behaviors, and broader economic factors. Whether this potential rally materializes into a full-blown altseason remains to be seen, but the groundwork for a significant shift appears to be quietly taking shape.
Source
This article is based on: Altcoins are on the verge of ‘most powerful rally’ since 2017 — Analyst
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Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
