Bitcoin’s recent behavior on the Asian markets has been anything but predictable. As of this Wednesday morning, the cryptocurrency is trading just above $105,500, a slight dip from its previous U.S. market position of $107,000. Despite the geopolitical turbulence from the U.S. strike on Iran, Bitcoin remains a bastion of stability, holding strong with only a 1% increase over the past month. This resilience, however, appears more calculated than exuberant, as investors cautiously eye Bitcoin’s proximity to its all-time high of $111,000 reached in May. As explored in our recent Bitcoin price analysis, the market anticipates a potential liquidity grab at this level.
Long-term Holders Hold Steady
Market dynamics have shifted significantly since December 2024’s breakout over $100,000, which triggered a wave of profit-taking. Now, patience reigns supreme. Glassnode’s latest analysis reveals a surge in the long-term holder supply to 14.7 million BTC, with minimal selling pressure. “HODLing appears to be the dominant market mechanic,” Glassnode analysts note, underscoring the restraint shown by Bitcoin’s long-term advocates.
On-chain activity further supports this narrative, with metrics like the adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) hovering just above breakeven. This suggests that the coins being spent are largely recent purchases—tactical trades rather than widespread distribution. Meanwhile, the Liveliness metric continues to decline, indicating that older coins remain dormant, waiting for their moment.
Institutional Inflows and Market Structure
Institutional interest in Bitcoin shows no signs of abating. Last week alone, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw $2.2 billion in net inflows, described by QCP as “constructive.” Major players, including Strategy and Metaplanet, are quietly accumulating, reshaping the market’s framework. Bitcoin’s realized cap has increased to $955 billion, suggesting a shift toward real capital infusion rather than mere speculation. This follows a pattern of institutional adoption, which we detailed in our analysis of Bitcoin ETF inflows.
Yet, beneath this calm surface, there are rumblings. Leveraged long positions are climbing, with funding rates turning positive across major perpetual futures markets. Glassnode warns that this equilibrium between long-term conviction and short-term leverage is unlikely to last indefinitely. The market may need a decisive move—either higher or lower—to unlock additional supply, hinting at potential volatility ahead.
The Broader Market Picture
While Bitcoin holds its ground, Ethereum has faced challenges. After failing to breach resistance at $2,522, Ethereum experienced heavy selling, culminating in a 4.5% trading range over the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, traditional assets like gold have seen a bump, with spot prices reaching $3,357.85 amid global trade uncertainties and a weakening dollar.
The S&P 500, on the other hand, saw a slight decline of 0.11% as investors shifted away from tech stocks. These movements highlight the interconnectedness of traditional and digital markets, each influencing the other in a dance of risk and reward.
Looking Ahead
As Bitcoin navigates these turbulent waters, the question remains: what will be the catalyst for its next major move? With long-term holders showing remarkable patience and institutional investors steadily increasing their stakes, the answer may lie in the balance between these forces and the ever-present specter of leveraged trading.
The market awaits its next cue—whether from geopolitical developments, regulatory shifts, or technological advancements. What remains certain is that Bitcoin’s saga continues, a testament to its enduring appeal and the complexity of its market dynamics.
Source
This article is based on: Asia Morning Briefing: Leverage Meets Patience as Bitcoin Builds Toward a Breakout
Further Reading
Deepen your understanding with these related articles:
- Bitcoin ETFs Pull in $1 Billion Despite Price Pressure | ETF News
- Bitcoin Holds Above $107K Ahead of Friday’s Big Options Expiry With $102K Max Pain Price
- Largest Bitcoin Leverage Unwind in Nearly a Year Triggered by Iran-Israel Tensions
Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
