Bitcoin’s upward momentum is getting a bump from an unexpected source: former President Donald Trump’s recent comments on the Israel-Iran conflict. By ruling out immediate military involvement, Trump has seemingly eased market tensions, propelling Bitcoin to a price of $106,000, marking a 0.9% increase over the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, the broader CoinDesk 20 index also saw a modest rise of 0.77%. This uptick comes amid a backdrop of slipping oil prices and buoyant European stock indices.
Geopolitical Calm Brings Bitcoin Gains
Trump’s remark has recalibrated the geopolitical risk landscape, with prediction markets like Polymarket adjusting the odds of U.S. military action before the end of June from 70% down to 40%. If the timeline stretches into July, the odds dip further to 62%, reduced from a staggering 90% just days prior. Dan Coatsworth, an investment analyst at AJ Bell, noted, “While the immediate prospect of U.S. intervention may have diminished, the two-week hiatus means this remains a live issue for markets.” For more on how these geopolitical tensions are impacting Bitcoin, see our coverage of Bitcoin’s response to Israel-Iran jitters.
This geopolitical shift has provided a welcome reprieve for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, often viewed as risk assets. Yet, experts caution that the calm may be temporary. “The market’s response is mostly relief-driven,” Coatsworth said, adding that the underlying tensions could resurface with little notice.
A Closer Look at Market Dynamics
Despite Bitcoin’s current buoyancy, analysts are keeping an eagle eye on potential warning signs. Glassnode, a renowned blockchain analytics firm, has observed subdued on-chain activity, suggesting a market increasingly dominated by institutional players making sporadic, yet sizable, transactions. In contrast, a CryptoQuant report raises the possibility of Bitcoin dipping to $92,000 or lower if demand doesn’t rebound soon. This aligns with our recent analysis on Bitcoin’s potential deeper pullback.
Several factors underscore this bearish outlook: Exchange-Traded Fund flows have plummeted by 60% since April, whale activity has halved, and short-term holders have jettisoned 800,000 BTC since late May. “Stay alert!” warns the report, highlighting the precariousness of the current market environment.
Upcoming Events and Future Outlook
The crypto calendar is bustling with significant events, which could further influence market dynamics. Notably, the BlackCoin blockchain is set to activate SegWit on June 20, while ZIGChain gears up for its mainnet launch on June 25. Moreover, the CME Group is eyeing a June 30 rollout for spot-quoted futures, pending regulatory approval—a move that could potentially inject fresh liquidity into the market.
Meanwhile, the macroeconomic landscape also warrants attention. Statistics Canada will release its May producer price inflation data and Mexico’s retail sales figures on June 23, alongside a slew of other economic indicators that could ripple through the crypto sphere.
As Bitcoin dominance hovers around 65%, the market remains on edge, with many traders eyeing the historically bullish second half of the year. However, the murky geopolitical waters and potential regulatory shifts continue to cast long shadows. The question on everyone’s mind: Can Bitcoin sustain its current momentum, or are we on the cusp of another downturn?
For now, Bitcoin’s trajectory remains tethered to a complex web of geopolitical and market forces. While the immediate outlook appears rosy, the longer-term picture is anything but clear. As always, in the volatile world of cryptocurrencies, caution and vigilance remain the watchwords.
Source
This article is based on: Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Buoyed by Trump, but Analysts Eye $92K Risk
Further Reading
Deepen your understanding with these related articles:
- Bitcoin Price Holds Steady Amid Iran Conflict Fears
- Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Holds Above $100K as Iran, Israel Trade Blows
- ‘Pro-Israel Hacker Group’ Drains, Burns $90 Million From Iranian Bitcoin Exchange
Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
