Bitcoin’s latest dance with volatility has traders keeping a close eye on the charts as a staggering $10 billion worth of options contracts are set to expire on Friday, May 30, 2025, at 08:00 UTC on Deribit. The focus is squarely on the $95,000 to $105,000 range, where the market’s next big move could unfold. With over 93,000 BTC options contracts in play, the stakes are high, and the potential for market fireworks is palpable.
The High-Stakes Expiry
As market participants brace for this pivotal moment, it’s worth noting that 53% of these options are calls—bullish bets on Bitcoin’s upward trajectory—while the remainder are puts, offering a safety net against price downturns. The open interest distribution highlights a significant cluster of delta exposure at the $95,000, $100,000, and $105,000 strikes. This concentration suggests that traders holding these positions are poised for a potentially turbulent ride.
“The largest delta concentration is in Deribit BTC’s May 30 expiry, with $2.8 billion delta exposure led by strikes at $100K, $105K, and $95K,” Volmex, a decentralized crypto trading platform, explained on X. The platform warned of the likelihood of strong gamma-driven flows as the month draws to a close, hinting at the possibility of aggressive dealer hedging and a “fragile gamma environment.”
Volatility on the Horizon
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $107,700, having recently touched record highs above $111,000. This backdrop sets the stage for a potentially volatile week, especially as Deribit’s DVOL index—reflecting the 30-day implied volatility—continues its downward trend, indicating a surprising lack of concern about imminent volatility. Yet, Volmex’s annualized one-day implied volatility index paints a slightly different picture, having inched up to 45.4%, suggesting a 24-hour price move of 2.37%.
The gamma sensitivity of these options means that any price movement could necessitate widespread hedging by both investors and market makers, further fueling the potential for significant price swings. “Any move can trigger aggressive dealer hedging,” Volmex added, underscoring the precariousness of the current market environment. This follows a pattern of institutional adoption, which we detailed in Bitcoin Surges Past $94,000 as Institutional Interest and Market Optimism Grow.
Historical Context and Market Trends
Historically, options expiries have been known to cause ripples through the cryptocurrency markets, often leading to heightened volatility as traders rush to adjust their positions. In recent months, Bitcoin’s price has been on a rollercoaster, reaching unprecedented peaks before pulling back, a trend that keeps traders on their toes. As explored in our recent coverage of Bitcoin Surpasses $95K Amid Resilient U.S. Stocks, Analysts Voice Concerns Over Market Perception, the market’s perception remains a critical factor in these price movements.
Despite the looming expiry, some analysts suggest that the overall market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. The decline in the DVOL index, while seemingly counterintuitive, could indicate that market participants expect the expiry to pass without major hiccups. However, with Bitcoin’s notorious unpredictability, nothing is ever set in stone.
Looking Ahead
As the clock ticks down to Friday’s expiry, traders and analysts alike are left to ponder the potential aftermath. Will Bitcoin surge past the $105,000 mark, or will it stumble back toward $95,000? The outcome remains uncertain, raising questions about whether this trend can continue in the face of significant market pressures.
For now, all eyes are on the charts, waiting to see how this high-stakes expiry will play out. One thing is clear: the world of cryptocurrency is never dull, and the coming days promise to deliver more of the unexpected twists and turns that have come to define this ever-evolving market.
Source
This article is based on: Bitcoin’s $95K-$105K Range in Focus as $10B BTC Options Expiry Looms
Further Reading
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Steve Gregory is a lawyer in the United States who specializes in licensing for cryptocurrency companies and products. Steve began his career as an attorney in 2015 but made the switch to working in cryptocurrency full time shortly after joining the original team at Gemini Trust Company, an early cryptocurrency exchange based in New York City. Steve then joined CEX.io and was able to launch their regulated US-based cryptocurrency. Steve then went on to become the CEO at currency.com when he ran for four years and was able to lead currency.com to being fully acquired in 2025.
